COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher again yesterday in light volume trading. Small funds and mislls were said to be the best buyers. Weather overall remains a supportive factor, as Texas remains hot and dry and as there has been adverse weather in parts of Asia this year. Chart trends are turning mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible in the Panhandle. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 102.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.015 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday. The China Cotton Association said production there could be 7.48 million tons this year with favorable weather for the rest of the growing season. This is 12.3% more than last year. Stocks now are estimated at 834,000 tons, up 45% from last year, but down 91,000 tons from June.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 October.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed as traders get ready for September deliveries next week. Traders are now more interested in the tropical system seen in the eastern Atlantic. The system appears likely to move to the East Coast once again, although for now it does not appear likely to hit Florida. It might not even hit the US depending on how the weather patterns set up. It is possible that a blocking front will keep the system away, but all this is too early to be forecast at this time. Charts show that trends are down. Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 155.00 and 147.50 November. Support is at 155.00, 154.00, and 153.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 162.50, and 163.50 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Aug 30
In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).
2010-2011
Aug 20 Aug 13 Year Ago
MOVEMENT
Retail 144,900 134,334 28,916
Institutional 338,340 372,951 330,999
Bulk 1,489,377 1,517,187 1,970,539
Total 1,972,618 2,024,472 2,330,454
Cumulative 136,678,997 134,706,379 114,994,341
IMPORTS
Foreign 1,039,107 580,236 35,693
Cumulative 16,194,318 15,155,211 20,888,866
RECEIPTS
Domestic 0 0 921
PACK
Retail 142,428 139,441 225,354
Institutional 437,507 369,470 369,354
Bulk 725,431 625,176 707,083
Less Reprocessed 1,305,366 1,134,088 1,301,791
Net 0 0 0
Cumulative 82,091,651 82,091,651 82,252,237
Inventory 61,104,787 62,055,635 109,177,504

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on follow through speculative buying tied to ideas of short supplies and little offer from origin. In particular, Brazil producers are not selling. There is some fear there that the freezes seen a few weeks ago could have hurt flowering and will cut production potential. Speculators were the best buyers, and Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. Weather in Brazil is good at this time. Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil. Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal. Chart trends turned mixed for the short term in London, but remain generally up in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.467 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 131 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 231.80 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 281.00, 277.00, and 273.00 December, and resistance is at 284.00, 290.00, and 293.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2250 November, and resistance is at 2410, 2420, and 2430 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 372.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 358.00, 356.00, and 347.00 December, and resistance is at 367.00, 373.00, and 377.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and in London yesterday in response to news that Brazil will cut ethanol blends in gasoline. It was a quiet market, with many traders more interested in the coming holiday in the US and in clean up after Hurricane Irene. Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided more support, but seems played out as the market driver for now. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Traders are watching to see how much more Sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy to keep prices there from spinning out of control.. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil Chart trends turned down with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Ukraine expects to produce between 2.0 and 2.1 million tons of Sugar from beets this year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2820 October. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2910 October, and resistance is at 3025, 3060, and 3140 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 742.00 and 703.00 October. Support is at 761.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 787.00, 797.00, and 801.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and higher in London on currency changes between the US Dollar and the British Pound. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year..
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.902 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3050, 3010, and 2950 December, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3240 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1855 December, with resistance at 1975, 1990, and 2005 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Free – subscribe to receive Daily Newsletters via email (also in Spanish)