Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 1, 2009

4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds

Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 114 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.

Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.

Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.

Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol

100 Retail, PMR
99 Software, PSJ
99 Taiwan Index, EWT
98 Internet B2B H, BHH
98 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
97 Networking, IGN
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
97 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
96 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
96 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 1, 2009

Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 235 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 235 ETFs as of the posting date, above.

Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.

Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell

Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.

Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol

100 Retail, PMR
99 Software, PSJ
99 Taiwan Index, EWT
98 Internet B2B H, BHH
98 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
97 Networking, IGN
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
97 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
96 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
96 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
95 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
95 Retail H, RTH
94 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
94 Internet Architecture H, IAH
94 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
93 Internet H, HHH
93 Short 100% S&P 500, SH
92 Technology MS sT, MTK
92 Biotech H, BBH
91 Bond, Corp, LQD
91 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
91 Bond, TIPS, TIP
90 Technology GS, IGM
90 Technology DJ US, IYW
89 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
89 Software, IGV
89 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
88 Malaysia Index, EWM
88 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
87 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
87 Technology Global, IXN
86 South Africa Index, EZA
86 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
86 Technology SPDR, XLK
85 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
85 Software H, SWH
84 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
84 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
83 South Korea Index, EWY
83 Silver Trust iS, SLV
83 Growth S&P 500, RPG
82 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
82 Food & Beverage, PBJ
81 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
81 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
80 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
80 China 25 iS, FXI
80 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
79 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
79 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
78 Emerging Markets, EEM
78 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
77 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
77 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
77 Dividend SPDR, SDY
76 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
76 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
75 Semiconductor H, SMH
75 Sweden Index, EWD
74 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
74 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
74 Hong Kong Index, EWH
73 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
73 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
72 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
72 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
71 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
71 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
71 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
70 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
70 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
69 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
69 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
69 Growth Large Cap, ELG
68 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
68 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
67 Brazil Index, EWZ
67 Water Resources, PHO
66 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
66 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
66 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
65 Latin Am 40, ILF
65 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
64 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
64 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
63 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
63 Semiconductors, PSI
63 Growth VIPERs, VUG
62 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
62 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
61 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
61 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
60 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
60 Materials SPDR, XLB
60 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
59 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
59 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
58 Telecom H, TTH
58 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
57 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
57 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
57 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
56 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
56 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
55 MidCap Russell, IWR
55 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
54 Canada Index, EWC
54 Japan Index, EWJ
54 Value MidCap iS M, JKI
53 Switzerland Index, EWL
53 Aerospace & Defense, PPA
52 MidCap VIPERs, VO
52 India Earnings WTree, EPI
51 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
51 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
51 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
50 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
50 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
49 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
49 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
49 Healthcare DJ, IYH
48 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
48 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
47 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
47 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
46 Pharmaceutical H, PPH
46 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
46 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
45 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
45 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
44 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
44 Health Care SPDR, XLV
43 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
43 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
43 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
42 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
42 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
41 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
41 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
40 Building & Construction, PKB
40 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
40 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
39 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 Energy Global, IXC
38 Materials VIPERs, VAW
38 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
37 Microcap Russell, IWC
37 Healthcare Global, IXJ
37 Telecommunications Global, IXP
36 Singapore Index, EWS
36 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
35 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
35 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
34 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
34 Insurance, PIC
34 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
33 Energy DJ, IYE
33 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
32 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
32 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
31 Utilities, PUI
31 Spain Index, EWP
31 Global 100, IOO
30 Biotech & Genome, PBE
30 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
29 Utilities SPDR, XLU
29 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
29 Industrial SPDR, XLI
28 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
28 Biotech SPDR, XBI
27 Utilities H, UTH
27 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Australia Index, EWA
26 Value S&P 500, RPV
25 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
25 Global Titans, DGT
24 Energy SPDR, XLE
24 Value VIPERs, VTV
23 Industrials VIPERs, VIS
23 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
23 Mexico Index, EWW
22 Financial Preferred, PGF
22 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
21 Utilities DJ, IDU
21 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
20 France Index, EWQ
20 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
20 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
19 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
19 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
18 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
18 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
17 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
17 Germany Index, EWG
17 Dividend Leaders, FDL
16 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
16 Dividend International, PID
15 United Kingdom Index, EWU
15 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
14 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
14 EMU Europe Index, EZU
14 Italy Index, EWI
13 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
13 Oil Services H, OIH
12 European VIPERs, VGK
12 Oil & Gas, PXJ
11 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
11 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
11 Nanotech Lux, PXN
10 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
10 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
9 Commodity Tracking, DBC
9 Netherlands Index, EWN
9 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
8 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
8 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
7 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
7 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
6 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
6 Bank Regional H, RKH
6 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
5 Financials VIPERs, VFH
5 Financial DJ US, IYF
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
4 REIT Wilshire, RWR
3 Belgium Index, EWK
3 Austria Index, EWO
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2 Financial SPDR, XLF
2 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
0 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
0 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs

As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41

Date , S&P 500 , Top 10