By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil jumped on Friday to trade at 85.02 and close the week strong, but still down for the month.
With recent data and meetings crude has been depressed and still continues to trade at a low number. OPEC meet earlier to address over production and the OPEC ministers agreed to hold to quotas, but the US production has increased by huge volumes adding to the global oversupply.
With recent drops in growth forecasts and actual demand, inventories have swelled well above historic levels with the EIA reports very high stocks.
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jun 29, 2012 |
85.02 |
78.39 |
85.30 |
78.32 |
8.45% |
Jun 28, 2012 |
78.39 |
80.42 |
80.84 |
77.30 |
-2.51% |
Jun 27, 2012 |
80.41 |
79.39 |
80.84 |
78.69 |
1.23% |
Jun 26, 2012 |
79.43 |
79.28 |
79.67 |
78.40 |
0.16% |
Jun 25, 2012 |
79.30 |
80.05 |
80.36 |
78.05 |
-0.93% |
At a predawn press conference on Friday, the EU Ministers announced the completion of a new plan to support the EU economies with a bank supervising agent with the ability to use funds from the Emergency Funds and the necessary credentials to act to protect and provide liquidity and to keep government borrowing rates down. The new agreements were met by pleasant surprise by the markets as risk became the tone of the day. The US dollar weakened allowing investors to quickly purchase crude oil at a depressed price. The new plan may also push inflation levels, which would be good for crude and it may stimulate growth which would also benefit crude oil as well as most of the commodities.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for the US Dollar
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Jun 25 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
369K |
347K |
343K |
Jun 26 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-1.9% |
-2.4% |
-2.6% |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
62.0 |
63.8 |
64.4 |
|
Jun 27 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.4% |
0.9% |
-0.6% |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.1% |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
5.9% |
1.2% |
-5.5% |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
-0.5M |
2.9M |
|
Jun 28 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
385K |
392K |
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
Jun 29 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.9 |
52.8 |
52.7 |
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
73.2 |
74.2 |
74.1 |
Historical:
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 88.78 over this period
Lowest 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Click here to read Crude Oil Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here