* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks were narrowly mixed as investors worried about the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations that appear to have again stalled, after some movement toward an agreement was apparent earlier in the week. The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a “Plan B” budget plan that President Obama said he will veto. Markets do not like uncertainty and most markets will remain jittery until the fiscal cliff issue comes to pass. In other overnight news, the Bank of Japan announced another monetary stimulus plan Thursday, which was not unexpected. U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday are many and include the weekly jobless claims report, the consumer confidence index, third-quarter GDP, revised corporate profits, existing home sales, leading economic indicators, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the monthly house price index,and foreign central bank holdings.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading today. Prices Wednesday hit a two-month high. Bulls have upside momentum as a four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 1,445.80 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,427.30 and then at 1,415.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of 2,713.75 and then at 2,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,685.50 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum on their
side. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,200 and then at 13,150. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,250 and then at this week’s high of 13,310. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on more short covering after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 147 4/32 and then 147 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies the overnight low of 146 16/32 and then at 146 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today on tepid short covering after hitting a six-week low on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.12.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. Bears still have good downside momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.43 and then at 79.65. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 70.01 and then at the September low of 78.94. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have gained some upside near-term technical momentum recently. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of $90.33 and then at the December high of $90.90. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $89.42 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were solidly lower in overnight trading. The grain market bulls have faded badly recently and bears have downside near-term technical momentum on their side. Traders will examine today’s weekly USDA export sales report as the bulls are hoping for some better export demand news.