Technology sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 18 months on 1/24/13, again confirming its established systematically bearish major trend.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral again on 1/24/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.

Health Care sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) turned systematically bullish again on 1/24/13, when it whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bullish again on 1/24/13, when it whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,494.82 ) surrendered morning gains to finish Thursday nearly unchanged, up just 0.01 points or 0.00%. The market rejected SPX levels above 1500. NYSE trading volume rose 5% to a level that was 12% above its 200-day SMA.

Most price momentum oscillators have not been making new highs to confirm new highs in the SPX, suggesting continuing momentum divergence. For example, popular momentum oscillators such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) remain below their 2011-2012 highs. MACD Histogram, which measures trend acceleration, declined on Thursday and has been drifting lower since 1/7/13, thereby suggesting trend deceleration. Trends often decelerate before changing direction.

Nasdaq Composite (COMP: 3,130.38) closed down 23.29 points or 0.74%, hurt by a 12.35% drop in Apple (AAPL: 450.50).

AAII Sentiment shows that individual investors are extremely bullish. As of 1/24/13, there were 52.34% bulls, 23.39% neutral, and 24.27% bears. This is the highest percentage of bulls in more than 2 years, since 1/13/11.

The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning high and rising optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Pinpoint accuracy is not guaranteed.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 1/18/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 5 years.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again on 1/3/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 12/20/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 1/23/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bullish again on 1/24/13, when it whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 12/17/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 1/8/13, thereby turning systematically bullish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 12/14/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1502.27, high of 1/24/13
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1489.46, low of 1/24/13
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1429.37, 50-day SMA
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.81, 200-day SMA
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 34.48, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.09, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral again on 1/24/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bullish on 1/18/13 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year, since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

42.22% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
7.84% , DLX , DELUXE
7.35% , BC , BRUNSWICK
3.42% , PCAR , PACCAR
4.37% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
4.05% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
2.24% , XRX , XEROX
3.34% , KSS , KOHLS
2.69% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.97% , TMK , TORCHMARK
2.24% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
2.22% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
2.15% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
4.57% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.20% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.72% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
2.01% , ADSK , AUTODESK
2.59% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
3.21% , MDP , MEREDITH
3.49% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.99% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
2.61% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.77% , RAI , Reynolds American
2.10% , FDX , FEDEX
3.39% , EBAY , EBAY
2.01% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.16% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.64% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
1.03% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
2.28% , AET , AETNA
1.50% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
1.28% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
1.36% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-6.34% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-3.10% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-4.82% , TER , TERADYNE
-6.00% , NE , NOBLE
-12.35% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-4.60% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.72% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-3.30% , VFC , VF
-2.85% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-1.83% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.34% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.02% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-1.61% , DOV , DOVER
-2.94% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.28% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-0.33% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-1.64% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.25% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-1.82% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.00% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.64% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.10% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.67% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-2.63% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.69% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.88% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.66% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.37% , MOLX , MOLEX
-1.07% , AES , AES
-1.71% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.96% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.00% , NCR , NCR
-0.81% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.57% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.14% Japan Index, EWJ
1.09% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.94% Networking, IGN
0.79% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.79% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.78% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.76% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.76% Germany Index, EWG
0.74% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.72% Spain Index, EWP
0.72% Sweden Index, EWD
0.70% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.66% Singapore Index, EWS
0.64% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.64% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.64% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.63% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.63% Belgium Index, EWK
0.62% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.60% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.59% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.58% France Index, EWQ
0.58% European VIPERs, VGK
0.58% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.57% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% Global 100, IOO
0.55% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.55% Dividend International, PID
0.54% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.53% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.53% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.52% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.49% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.49% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.48% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.48% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.46% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.46% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.45% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.45% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.44% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.44% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.44% Austria Index, EWO
0.44% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.44% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.43% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.43% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.42% Energy Global, IXC
0.42% Italy Index, EWI
0.41% Water Resources, PHO
0.41% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.39% Energy DJ, IYE
0.38% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.33% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.31% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.30% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.30% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.30% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.29% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.29% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.28% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.27% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.26% Mexico Index, EWW
0.24% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.22% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.22% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.20% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.20% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.19% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.18% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.16% Russia MV, RSX
0.16% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.16% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.15% South Africa Index, EZA
0.14% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.12% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.12% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.10% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.09% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.05% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.03% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.03% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.02% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% China 25 iS, FXI
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.03% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.06% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.07% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.07% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.08% Australia Index, EWA
-0.10% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.10% Canada Index, EWC
-0.13% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.14% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.14% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.15% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.17% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.17% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.24% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.25% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.27% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.27% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.28% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.29% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.31% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.32% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.33% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.35% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.36% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.44% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.45% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.45% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.49% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.80% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.82% India PS, PIN
-0.94% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.97% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.02% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.10% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.38% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.56% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.71% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.73% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.82% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.88% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.16% Technology DJ US, IYW