Tuesday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It will be a busy day of U.S. economic data Tuesday. Reports data due for release include the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales reports, the employment cost index, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the ISM Chicago business survey, the consumer confidence index, and the ISM semiannual report on business and the economy. The FOMC meeting also begins Tuesday. There was more dour economic news coming out of the European Union overnight, as the number of unemployed workers in the bloc rose to a record high in March. Also, German retail sales fell in March. Tame EU inflation that fell to its lowest level in three years was also reported Tuesday. All of the above augurs for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates when it holds its monthly meeting on Thursday. A growing number of market watchers think the ECB will lower interest rates at Thursday’s gathering. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will announce its latest monetary policy actions in a busy week of world economic data. The monthly U.S. jobs report is due out Friday morning.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and are hovering near the recent all-time high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 1,592.50 and then at 1,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,574.50 and then at 1,560.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and are hovering near Monday’s seven-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,865.00 and then at Monday’s high of 2,871.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,850.00 and then at Monday’s low of 2,827.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 14,785 and then at the April high of 14,818. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,700 and then at 14,650. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 149 even and then at last week’s high of 149 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 148 14/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 133.20.5 and then at 133.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.16.0 and then at the overnight low of 133.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded and need to show more power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 82.520 and then at 82.905. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.080 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on their side. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday’s high of $94.69 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $93.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. Grain market bulls had a good day on Monday, led by corn with limit daily gains. There are now early clues that grain markets have put in seasonal lows. Substantial rains and cold temperatures are in the forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt in the coming days. This will continue to severely limit corn planting progress, and that is bullish for corn. Meantime, the annual hard red winter wheat tour kicks off in the U.S. Plains states this week. The HRW crop is in very bad shape, overall. Soybeans are seeing strong cash basis levels in the U.S., due to scant farmer selling in the cash market.