iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) both fell below their lows of the previous 4 years on 6/18/13, again reconfirming preexisting major downtrends.

U.S. stocks opened higher and continued to rise most of the day until the final hour. Prices eased mildly lower late in the day but held onto the great bulk of their gains. It was a bullish day, with the price indexes closing above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s range, and above Monday’s close.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,651.81) finished up 0.78%. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE rose above its 50-day SMA.

NYSE Volume fell 1% from Monday’s level and was 6% below its own 200-day SMA.

All eyes will be on Chairman Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday, looking for minute hints–but no big surprises seem likely.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. On 5/28/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/17/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.”

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/18/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/12/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/18/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 7-month low on 6/12/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 9 months on 6/11/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/14/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/12/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been systematically neutral since it broke down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/17/13, confirming its preexisting downside correction. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13, although the gap between the two has been closing in recent days. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/11/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) is systematically bearish. Price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

3.60% , XRX , XEROX
4.34% , SVU , SUPERVALU
3.78% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
0.52% , DELL , DELL
0.81% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.48% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.41% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.36% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
1.69% , WAT , WATERS
0.73% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
0.70% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
0.55% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.94% , IGN , Networking, IGN
5.09% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.36% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
3.95% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
0.81% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
2.62% , MDP , MEREDITH
1.06% , MTB , M&T BANK
3.03% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
0.90% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
2.41% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.81% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.04% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.79% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
1.62% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
0.37% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.60% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.22% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.70% , CTAS , CINTAS
0.55% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
1.39% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.85% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-2.09% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-2.45% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.82% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.21% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.47% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.62% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.47% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.65% , AES , AES
-0.22% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.64% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.38% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.26% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.61% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.37% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.21% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.07% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.31% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-0.24% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.06% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-0.72% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.18% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-0.02% , LLY , ELI LILLY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.41% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.74% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.70% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.65% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.36% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.31% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.27% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.24% , Water Resources, PHO
1.22% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.21% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.19% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.18% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.18% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.18% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.15% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.06% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.04% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.03% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.02% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.02% , Spain Index, EWP
1.00% , Austria Index, EWO
0.99% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.98% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.95% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.95% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.94% , Networking, IGN
0.89% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.89% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.89% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.87% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.87% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.86% , Germany Index, EWG
0.86% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.86% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.85% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.84% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.84% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.83% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.83% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.82% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.82% , Russia MV, RSX
0.81% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.81% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.81% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.80% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.80% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.80% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.80% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.79% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.79% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.79% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.79% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.79% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.78% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.78% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.77% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.76% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.75% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.75% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.73% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.71% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.71% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.71% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.71% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.70% , Global 100, IOO
0.70% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.70% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.69% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.69% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.69% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.68% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.68% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.67% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.66% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.65% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.64% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.63% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.62% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.61% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.60% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.58% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.57% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.56% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.55% , France Index, EWQ
0.55% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.54% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.53% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.52% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.51% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.51% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.50% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.48% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.47% , Energy Global, IXC
0.46% , Italy Index, EWI
0.45% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.43% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.42% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.42% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.40% , Canada Index, EWC
0.37% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.37% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.36% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.35% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.34% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.33% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.27% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.25% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.25% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.23% , Dividend International, PID
0.23% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.23% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.22% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.16% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.09% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.05% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.07% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.20% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.22% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.43% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.47% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.47% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.53% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.58% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.61% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.70% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.72% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.94% , India PS, PIN
-1.03% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.04% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.10% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.21% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.23% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.42% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1617.03, 50-day SMA
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1503.09, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009