Gold, Silver, and Copper ETFs fell below lows of the previous 2 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming major downtrends. 

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 6/20/13 and remains systematically bearish. 

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) both fell below their lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming preexisting major downtrends. 

Of the 9 major stock sectors, 7 gave fresh price trend signals on 6/20/13 as absolute prices fell below 50-day SMAs, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). These sectors are: 
Financial 
Consumer Discretionary 
Health Care 
Industrial 
Energy 
Technology 
Materials 

Consumer Staples and Utilities already were price neutral, so all 9 sectors are now price neutral. 

U.S. stocks opened lower and continued to fall under substantial selling pressure nearly all day. The medium-term, intermediate, secondary trend turned bearish on Thursday 6/20/2013. The short-term, minor trend turned bearish on Wednesday 6/19/2013. 

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,588.19) fell 2.50%. SPX is now at its lowest closing price in 4 weeks, since 5/1/2013. 

In addition, SPX closed below its 50-day SMA (now at 1,618.25) for the second time this year, the first time since 4/18/2013, and closed at its largest percentage below its 50-day SMA since November, 2012. 

The bullish majority had been taking encouragement from the SPX and other major stock price indexes holding support at or near their widely-followed 50-day SMAs, but now that support has been taken out. 

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE also fell hard, again, breaking below its lows of the previous 8 weeks. The A-D Line fell below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday 6/19/2013. 

NYSE Volume rose 42% from Wednesday’s level and was 54% above its own 200-day SMA, confirming substantial selling pressure. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 6/20/13, after it crossed below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday 6/19/2013. 

The S&P 500 fell 4.85% from 5/21/13 to 6/20/13, based on closing prices–the largest down wave since last September-November. It also is the longest in time, lasting 21 trading days so far. The magnitude and duration of this price decline is probably telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November. 

A wide variety of technical oscillators previously had given early warning after losing upside momentum and showing persistent bearish divergences over periods of weeks and months. Now, it seems quite apparent that there has been considerable technical damage to the previously bullish stock market trend. This damage could signal a significant downside correction, or possibly, the beginning of a longer-term bear market. In either case, caution seems warranted. 

Following a persistent trend, investors typically overestimate the market’s ability to continue in that same trend direction, while underestimating risks of trend reversal and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have. 
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. On 5/28/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high. 

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/17/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.” 

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/20/13. 

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/20/13, confirming its bearish major trend. 

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 6/20/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). 

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. 

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). 

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/20/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been systematically neutral since it broke down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). 
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Tangible Assets, Commodities 

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/17/13, confirming its preexisting downside correction. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97. 

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). 

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13, although the gap between the two has been closing in recent days. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60. 

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/20/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85. 

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06. 

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35. 

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. 

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. JJC price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook. 
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative. 

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change

% Price Change, Symbol, Name 
2.44% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ 
1.98% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT 
3.50% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT 
2.33% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG 
4.70% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD 
5.34% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ 
2.53% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH 
1.47% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP 
2.01% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY 
4.79% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID 
1.51% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT 
0.83% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST 
1.97% , ZION , ZIONS 
5.02% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS 
0.76% , MTB , M&T BANK 
0.75% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL 
0.45% , CI , CIGNA 
0.54% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON 
0.36% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST 
0.24% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC 
0.11% , CMA , COMERICA 
0.05% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O 
0.03% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS 
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change 

% Price Change, Symbol, Name 
-11.43% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL 
-2.21% , IGV , Software, IGV 
-4.57% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ 
-9.10% , PHM , PULTE HOMES 
-9.09% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI 
-3.29% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB 
-3.04% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM 
-6.12% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH 
-5.18% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS 
-7.69% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN) 
-3.34% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN 
-4.68% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD 
-2.63% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF 
-6.13% , BLK , BlackRock Inc. 
-6.11% , KMX , CarMax 
-2.62% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC 
-7.94% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV 
-2.79% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY 
-5.86% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL 
-6.74% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING 
-4.13% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L 
-2.91% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ 
-6.12% , KR , KROGER 
-2.50% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT 
-6.47% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD 
-4.56% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP 
-5.13% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL 
-4.19% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS 
-2.37% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI 
-5.37% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU 
-3.25% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC 
-4.24% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH 
-3.92% , TUP , TUPPERWARE 
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day: 
% Price ChangeETF NameSymbol 
2.53% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH 
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV 
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY 
-0.45% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF 
-0.67% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG 
-0.98% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG 
-1.01% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP 
-1.06% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK 
-1.34% , Financial Preferred, PGF 
-1.38% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD 
-1.45% , Networking, IGN 
-1.50% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF 
-1.64% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT 
-1.73% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX 
-1.75% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA 
-1.77% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB 
-1.83% , Financial Services DJ, IYG 
-2.10% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT 
-2.17% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY 
-2.17% , Financials VIPERs, VFH 
-2.17% , Financial SPDR, XLF 
-2.18% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ 
-2.22% , Technology SPDR, XLK 
-2.25% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT 
-2.28% , Industrial SPDR, XLI 
-2.32% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA 
-2.35% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS 
-2.36% , Microcap Russell, IWC 
-2.37% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV 
-2.38% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG 
-2.38% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ 
-2.39% , Value VIPERs, VTV 
-2.41% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR 
-2.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF 
-2.42% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR 
-2.46% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB 
-2.47% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF 
-2.48% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY 
-2.48% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI 
-2.49% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV 
-2.50% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE 
-2.50% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ 
-2.50% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT 
-2.52% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD 
-2.54% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP 
-2.54% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV 
-2.54% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV 
-2.55% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO 
-2.55% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB 
-2.55% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW 
-2.56% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN 
-2.57% , Health Care SPDR, XLV 
-2.58% , Materials SPDR, XLB 
-2.59% , Growth VIPERs, VUG 
-2.60% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH 
-2.60% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY 
-2.62% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY 
-2.63% , Financial DJ US, IYF 
-2.63% , Dividend International, PID 
-2.64% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS 
-2.64% , Water Resources, PHO 
-2.64% , Technology DJ US, IYW 
-2.64% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP 
-2.64% , Austria Index, EWO 
-2.65% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM 
-2.68% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY 
-2.69% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU 
-2.74% , MidCap Russell, IWR 
-2.77% , Dividend SPDR, SDY 
-2.80% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK 
-2.83% , Utilities SPDR, XLU 
-2.84% , Energy Global, IXC 
-2.84% , Switzerland Index, EWL 
-2.85% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK 
-2.85% , Energy VIPERs, VDE 
-2.88% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD 
-2.88% , Energy DJ, IYE 
-2.91% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB 
-2.92% , Energy SPDR, XLE 
-3.00% , Global 100, IOO 
-3.01% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI 
-3.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP 
-3.02% , United Kingdom Index, EWU 
-3.04% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM 
-3.16% , European VIPERs, VGK 
-3.16% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX 
-3.17% , Russia MV, RSX 
-3.19% , Brazil Index, EWZ 
-3.22% , Spain Index, EWP 
-3.25% , Commodity Tracking, DBC 
-3.27% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV 
-3.27% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE 
-3.28% , Germany Index, EWG 
-3.28% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME 
-3.28% , Biotech SPDR, XBI 
-3.29% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE 
-3.29% , Belgium Index, EWK 
-3.29% , Canada Index, EWC 
-3.31% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO 
-3.34% , EMU Europe Index, EZU 
-3.34% , Netherlands Index, EWN 
-3.34% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV 
-3.36% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ 
-3.38% , Italy Index, EWI 
-3.49% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE 
-3.54% , Malaysia Index, EWM 
-3.55% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV 
-3.60% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG 
-3.65% , France Index, EWQ 
-3.67% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA 
-3.70% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO 
-3.79% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX 
-3.82% , South Korea Index, EWY 
-3.83% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN 
-3.91% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR 
-4.01% , Latin Am 40, ILF 
-4.08% , Taiwan Index, EWT 
-4.09% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW 
-4.10% , REIT Wilshire, RWR 
-4.15% , Japan Index, EWJ 
-4.16% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ 
-4.17% , China 25 iS, FXI 
-4.24% , Hong Kong Index, EWH 
-4.26% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF 
-4.35% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO 
-4.36% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL 
-4.47% , India PS, PIN 
-4.48% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM 
-4.50% , Australia Index, EWA 
-4.56% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP 
-4.57% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ 
-4.58% , Mexico Index, EWW 
-4.68% , Sweden Index, EWD 
-4.81% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB 
-5.17% , South Africa Index, EZA 
-5.18% , Singapore Index, EWS 
-5.35% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD 
-5.53% , India Earnings WTree, EPI 
-6.12% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH 
-6.47% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD 
-7.41% , Indonesia MV, IDX 
-7.56% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR 
-7.94% , Silver Trust iS, SLV 
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance 
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1618.25, 50-day SMA 
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support 
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1505.13, 200-day SMA 
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012 
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012 
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012 
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012 
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012 
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012 
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012 
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012 
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012 
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012 
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012 
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012 
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012 
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012 
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012 
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012 
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012 
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012 
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012 
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012 
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012 
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012 
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012 
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012 
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range 
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012 
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012 
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011 
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012 
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012 
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012 
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012 
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012 
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012 
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012 
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012 
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012 
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012 
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012 
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012 
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012 
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012 
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011 
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011 
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011 
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011 
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011 
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range 
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011 
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011 
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011 
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011 
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011 
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range 
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011 
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range 
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010 
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009 
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range 
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009