Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/24/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.

Energy (XLE) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) is currently systematically bearish. XLE/SPY whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Long term, XLE/SPY has been trending down since the XLE/SPY ratio peaked on 3/30/11.

Utilities (XLU) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/24/13 when XLU/SPY whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.

In another déjà vu all over again, U.S. stock market price indexes opened higher but quickly reversed to close mostly lower on the day. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,685.94) fell 0.38% and formed its 2nd consecutive daily Bearish Engulfing Candlestick. Popular momentum oscillators, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), have turned downward.

NYSE total volume rose 9%. Rising volume on a price move confirms the direction (up or down) of that price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind that move, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both turned down after testing their May highs. The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 7/19/13, when it crossed back down below its own 50-day SMA. QQQ/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 4/10/12.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Longer term, IWM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Longer term, MDY/SPY has underperformed slightly since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish but may be turning upward. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price now are rising and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave from 5/1/13 to 7/5/13. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 106.17, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish but may be turning upward. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price now are rising and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave from 5/1/13 to 7/5/13. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend. Support 36.88, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/24/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. In June, price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 7/19/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

6.65% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
5.73% , UIS , UNISYS
5.61% , EMC , EMC
0.88% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
2.54% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
3.80% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
3.06% , LLY , ELI LILLY
2.57% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
3.21% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
1.41% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.54% , F , FORD MOTOR
5.14% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
1.34% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.15% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
2.76% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
3.59% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
3.15% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
1.98% , AFL , AFLAC
0.20% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.00% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
1.52% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
2.75% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.74% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
2.22% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.22% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
0.69% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.27% , DELL , DELL
0.79% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
1.54% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.74% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.80% , GLW , CORNING
2.90% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.71% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-15.14% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-5.65% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-6.57% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-1.95% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-5.00% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-4.60% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.86% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-2.88% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-1.60% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.48% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.08% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.06% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.83% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.66% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.95% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.43% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-2.85% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.74% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.64% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-1.48% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.07% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-2.23% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.44% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-2.37% , TER , TERADYNE
-2.22% , ASH , ASHLAND
-2.10% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.42% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-2.75% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-2.08% , MON , MONSANTO
-3.04% , SYY , SYSCO
-2.48% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-1.46% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-1.69% , D , DOMINION RSCS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.41% , Italy Index, EWI
1.34% , Spain Index, EWP
0.88% , France Index, EWQ
0.86% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.82% , Austria Index, EWO
0.72% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.69% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.67% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.49% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.49% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.37% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.32% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.32% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.29% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.25% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.25% , Germany Index, EWG
0.09% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.07% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% , India PS, PIN
-0.06% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.10% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.10% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.13% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.13% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.14% , Global 100, IOO
-0.14% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.16% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.17% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.22% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.29% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.30% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.31% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.32% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.33% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.34% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.34% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.35% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.36% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.37% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.40% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.40% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.44% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.48% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.49% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.49% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.51% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.51% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.51% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.57% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.57% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.58% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.59% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.59% , Dividend International, PID
-0.65% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.65% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.67% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.67% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.68% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.68% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.69% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.71% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.71% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.71% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.71% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.72% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.72% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.72% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.73% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.74% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.74% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.76% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.76% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.76% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.77% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.77% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.77% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.77% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.80% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.81% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.81% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.82% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.82% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.83% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.83% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.84% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.84% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.84% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.85% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.87% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.88% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.88% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.88% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.89% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.89% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.90% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.94% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.94% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.95% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.97% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.99% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.00% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.02% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.02% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.03% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.04% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.04% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.06% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.09% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.11% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.15% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.15% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.19% , Networking, IGN
-1.21% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.23% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.27% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.45% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.48% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.52% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.53% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.53% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.55% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.58% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.60% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.61% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.72% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.81% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.87% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.93% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.95% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.95% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.02% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.08% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.10% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.16% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-3.36% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.40% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1643.18, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1528.51, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009