SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB, NYSEArca, 29.77, Down 0.42, 1.39%) broke down below its 50-day SMA and broke down below the lows of the previous 12 trading days. XHB appears to be topping out after peaking at 32.69 on 5/22/13.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its 200-day SMA on 7/25/13 and remains systematically neutral. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11

U.S. stock market price indexes opened lower but recovered in the afternoon to close mostly higher on the day. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,690.25) rose 0.26%, thereby recovering most of Wednesday’s loss.

Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), turned downward on Wednesday 7/24/13 and remain bearishly divergent.

NYSE total volume fell 2%, thereby casting doubt on Thursday’s upside price reversal. Rising volume on a price move confirms the direction (up or down) of that price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind that move, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both rose slightly but remain bearishly divergent relative to their May highs and the price indexes. The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 7/19/13, when it crossed back down below its own 50-day SMA. QQQ/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 4/10/12.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Longer term, IWM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Longer term, MDY/SPY has underperformed slightly since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish but may be turning upward. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price now are rising and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave from 5/1/13 to 7/5/13. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 106.17, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish but may be turning upward. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price now are rising and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave from 5/1/13 to 7/5/13. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP also fell below its 200-day SMA on 7/25/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend. Support 36.88, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/25/13 when price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. In June, price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 7/19/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

12.70% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.64% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
6.51% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
11.01% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
9.76% , BC , BRUNSWICK
7.86% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
6.31% , IP , INTL PAPER
5.35% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.56% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
1.00% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
3.25% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
2.73% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.49% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
3.32% , DLX , DELUXE
3.09% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.78% , NI , NISOURCE
2.56% , LM , LEGG MASON
0.53% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.26% , QLGC , QLOGIC
1.30% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
1.88% , EFX , EQUIFAX
2.72% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.83% , GPS , GAP
0.28% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.03% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.57% , INTC , INTEL
0.45% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.63% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
0.68% , MDP , MEREDITH
2.02% , SVU , SUPERVALU
3.31% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
2.39% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
1.06% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-20.20% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-8.58% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-10.30% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.76% , TER , TERADYNE
-6.67% , KBH , KB HOME
-3.81% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-3.65% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.83% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.12% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-2.05% , TGT , TARGET
-1.48% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.95% , FDX , FEDEX
-1.21% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-1.59% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-1.61% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-1.23% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.49% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-1.36% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.72% , MAS , MASCO
-1.68% , GOOG , Google
-1.30% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-1.39% , LOW , LOWES
-1.21% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.62% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.45% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-1.74% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-1.07% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-3.08% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.25% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.81% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.93% , NE , NOBLE
-0.89% , KMX , CarMax
-0.79% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.64% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.49% , Spain Index, EWP
2.34% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.39% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.29% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.24% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.22% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.19% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.13% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.10% , Austria Index, EWO
1.08% , Italy Index, EWI
1.07% , France Index, EWQ
1.06% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.05% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.05% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.03% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.00% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.99% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.98% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.97% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.95% , Water Resources, PHO
0.94% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.94% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.94% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.93% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.93% , Australia Index, EWA
0.93% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.92% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.89% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.87% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.85% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.84% , Networking, IGN
0.80% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.79% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.77% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.75% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.70% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.68% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.68% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.68% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.67% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.65% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.64% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.64% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.64% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.63% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.63% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.63% , Germany Index, EWG
0.62% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.61% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.61% , Canada Index, EWC
0.60% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.58% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.58% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.57% , Energy Global, IXC
0.53% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.53% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.53% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.53% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.51% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.51% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.51% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.51% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.50% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.49% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.48% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.46% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.44% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.42% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.40% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.39% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.39% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.37% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.37% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.35% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.35% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.34% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.33% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.33% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.32% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.32% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.29% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.29% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.28% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.28% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.28% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.27% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.26% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.24% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.24% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.21% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.21% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.20% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.20% , Global 100, IOO
0.19% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.18% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.16% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.16% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.15% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.14% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.14% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.13% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.13% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.11% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.10% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.10% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.09% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.06% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.06% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% , Dividend International, PID
0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.05% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.04% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.04% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.01% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.04% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.06% , India PS, PIN
-0.09% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.12% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.12% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.12% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.14% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.23% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.28% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.51% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.78% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.39% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.81% , Japan Index, EWJ
-2.03% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1643.98, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1529.65, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009