The S&P 500 managed a modest gain after falling for 5 consecutive trading days following the Fed’s QE continuation announcement on 9/18/13. Lower volume failed to confirm the price upturn, however.
It appears as though the stock market is tired of going down, but it does not have enough strength to put on a good technical performance. And who can blame it? After a 4-year run, the old bull can’t be expected to have much left. The path of least resistance appears to be neutral for the short term.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,698.67, up 0.35%) rose in the first 39 minutes on Thursday morning, making its high of the day. SPX surrendered nearly all of its early gain before a rally in the final hour partially restored it to a moderate gain. SPX closed above the open, slightly above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, above the closing price of the previous trading day, and above its widely-watched 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
NYSE total volume fell 12% to a level 18% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both rose on Thursday. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish), while the Advance-Decline Line has remained bullish above its 50-day SMA and above its 200-day SMA for 2 weeks.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA, but Relative Strength has turned lower since then. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/11/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Price is currently slightly above its 50-day SMA, which is neutral, but price could easily slip back below its 50-day SMA, which would make it systematically bearish again., DBA price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.29% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
5.40% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
3.13% , ADSK , AUTODESK
4.50% , YHOO , YAHOO
4.48% , EBAY , EBAY
0.72% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
4.47% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
7.04% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
3.73% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.99% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
1.75% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
2.06% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.36% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.05% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.56% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
3.10% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
2.04% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.66% , WPO , Washington Post
0.95% , WAT , WATERS
2.96% , JCP , JC PENNEY
1.03% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.18% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
2.95% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.94% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.44% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.72% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
0.56% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.48% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.28% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.43% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.41% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.88% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
0.41% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.92% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-2.62% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-2.98% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-3.04% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-2.19% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-2.70% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-3.69% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-0.40% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.98% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-2.96% , MBI , MBIA
-1.52% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.84% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.15% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.01% , HUM , HUMANA
-1.27% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.35% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.16% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-0.42% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-0.48% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-0.03% , HAR , Harman International
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.07% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.82% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.59% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.53% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.34% , India PS, PIN
1.32% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.22% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.14% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.09% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.08% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.95% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.88% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.85% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.78% , Australia Index, EWA
0.78% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.78% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.77% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.76% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.71% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.71% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.70% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.68% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.66% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.66% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.66% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.65% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.65% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.64% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.63% , Water Resources, PHO
0.61% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.61% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.61% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.59% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.59% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.59% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.57% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.55% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.55% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.54% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.52% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.52% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.51% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.50% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.49% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.48% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.46% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.46% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.46% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.46% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.45% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.43% , Spain Index, EWP
0.42% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.42% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.41% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.41% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.41% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.41% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.40% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.40% , Dividend International, PID
0.40% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.40% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.39% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.38% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.37% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.35% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.35% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.35% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.35% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.35% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.35% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.30% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.29% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.29% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.28% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.28% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.27% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.26% , Austria Index, EWO
0.26% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.22% , Global 100, IOO
0.21% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.21% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.19% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.19% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.18% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.18% , Canada Index, EWC
0.18% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.15% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.14% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.11% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.07% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.07% , Russia MV, RSX
0.07% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.07% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.06% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.06% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.06% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.05% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.04% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.04% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.04% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.00% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.02% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.02% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.03% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.04% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.04% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.05% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.06% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.07% , France Index, EWQ
-0.07% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.10% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.11% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.12% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.13% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.14% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.16% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.21% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.21% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.25% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.29% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.32% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.39% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.46% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.49% , Networking, IGN
-0.66% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.69% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.70% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.78% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.01% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.08% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1691.88, low of 9/25/2013
1691.70, low of 9/16/2013
1689.97, high of 9/12/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1680.13, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1588.19, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
