The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.

Health Care (XLV) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) is currently neutral. XLV/SPY whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). In a broader context, XLV clearly has underperformed SPY since the XLV/SPY ratio peaked on 4/22/13.

Industrial (XLI) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) is currently bullish. XLI/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 7/18/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 7/18/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

U.S. stock indexes opened moderately higher on Thursday and rose further to a peaks and new highs at 10:57 a.m. Prices then spent most of the day going nowhere, choppy sideways, into the close above the open and midpoint of the day’s range. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,689.37) rose 0.50% to a new all-time high.

NYSE total volume rose 7% to a level 1% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price move confirms the direction (up or down) of that price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind that move, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both rose but remain below their May highs.
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Stock Market Indicators

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a bullish trend. Support 36.88, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 7/18/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

16.84% , SVU , SUPERVALU
8.28% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
6.77% , SWY , SAFEWAY
5.94% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.90% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
4.40% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
5.28% , XLNX , XILINX
5.42% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
5.93% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
4.37% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
2.96% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.68% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.41% , HUM , HUMANA
4.22% , FDX , FEDEX
6.52% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.95% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
3.60% , BC , BRUNSWICK
2.71% , BA , BOEING
1.85% , BMS , BEMIS
1.12% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.63% , WAG , WALGREEN
4.00% , DOV , DOVER
2.00% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
2.23% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
5.22% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.03% , SNA , SNAP ON
4.04% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.94% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.27% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
4.37% , AET , AETNA
1.55% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
1.60% , BLL , BALL
2.04% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-8.32% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-6.73% , EBAY , EBAY
-3.19% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-4.76% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.56% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.13% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-3.75% , INTC , INTEL
-1.08% , AN , AUTONATION
-2.62% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-2.45% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-1.49% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-1.35% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.52% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-2.51% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.86% , GOOG , Google
-1.02% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.52% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.48% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-1.48% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-2.14% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.96% , DHR , DANAHER
-1.69% , MOLX , MOLEX
-0.73% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.83% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-1.13% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.24% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-1.41% , OMC , OMNICOM
-0.66% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.99% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.51% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.84% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-0.34% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.25% , QQQ.O , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.25% , Italy Index, EWI
1.79% , Spain Index, EWP
1.70% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.68% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.52% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.49% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.43% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.37% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.35% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.29% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.27% , France Index, EWQ
1.27% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.12% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.09% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.06% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.06% , Canada Index, EWC
1.03% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.03% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.02% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.01% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.98% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.95% , Water Resources, PHO
0.95% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.95% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.95% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.94% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.94% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.91% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.91% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.90% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.90% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.88% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.87% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.86% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.86% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.86% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.86% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.85% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.85% , Germany Index, EWG
0.85% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.85% , Energy Global, IXC
0.85% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.83% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.82% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.81% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.78% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.77% , Austria Index, EWO
0.76% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.73% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.69% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.68% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.67% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.67% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.66% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.64% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.63% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.62% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.62% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.61% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.60% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.59% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.59% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.58% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.58% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.57% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.57% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.57% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.56% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.56% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.55% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.54% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.54% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.52% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.51% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.50% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.50% , Global 100, IOO
0.48% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.48% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.46% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.45% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.42% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.42% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.40% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.40% , Networking, IGN
0.38% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.37% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.35% , Dividend International, PID
0.34% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.34% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.34% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.33% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.32% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.31% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.28% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.27% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.24% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.22% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.20% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.19% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.12% , India PS, PIN
0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.00% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.09% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.13% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.13% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.19% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.23% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.25% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.25% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.26% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.26% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.28% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.31% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.34% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.34% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.36% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.37% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.37% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.45% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.47% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.51% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.57% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.59% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.60% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.60% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.68% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.84% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.97% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.15% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.18% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.25% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.52% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.64% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.14% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.66% , Taiwan Index, EWT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1693.12, high of 7/18/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1638.40, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1523.59, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009