Is everyone on pins and needles today? OMG, the “announcement” comes out at 2:00 EST and the excitement is building. Will the Fed or won’t the Fed begin tapering QE this month, and if not when then, and if not when, then, will it end it at all, ever?

These are the questions the market is breathlessly waiting to have answered. The last is a bit facetious on my part, but, truly, some of the overly bright minds out there have suggested that QE can never end, that it will go on indefinitely. Me thinks not, but, hey, governing bodies have done crazier things, although not ending QE would be about as crazy as it gets. How would that look, exactly, say, in twenty years? Let’s see … 85 billion dollars a month times 12 times 20 = a number well beyond reason. Okay enough!  The breathless media makes room for all …

The market seems content to waver in the green today, which suggests what? I am not sure, as the pending Fed announcement portends more fear coming our way. With all the positive US economic data coming out recently, a budget deal in place for two years, and a global economy on the mend, how can it not make some definitive statement about when the tapering begins? Me thinks it will, as I suspect the market does as well, which brings me to an answer for my question above – the market is wavering in the green today because it understands a definitive announcement from the Fed only means short-term pain, which translates to opportunity.       

  • The Senate has voted 67-33 to restrict the debate on the bipartisan budget bill that has already passed in the House, thereby ensuring that opponents can’t use a filibuster to stop it. The Democrat-led chamber is now expected to approve the budget legislation in a vote that could take place today.
  • German businesses continue to gain confidence. The German Ifo institute’s business climate index has increased to its highest in 20 months.
  • U.K. unemployment dropped to its lowest level since April 2009 in the three months to October, falling to 7.4% from 7.6% in July-September. The number of people who were employed was 30.09M, surpassing 30M for the first time ever.
  • Japanese exports climbed 18.4% on year in November vs. +17.9% expected and +18.6% in October, while imports jumped 21.1%. Interestingly, the volume of merchandise exports rose 6.1% on year – the sharpest increase in a year and a half – indicating that the weak yen isn’t just boosting the value figure.
  • Housing Starts rose 22.7% in November and were reported at an annualized rate of 1.091 million. This was well above consensus for 908K and the biggest monthly jump in starts since January 1990.

The last data nugget above is wild. Going back to 1990 as a metric for economic measure, well, that says something and maybe that something is good, or maybe that something is nothing, an anomaly derived from a data set that is meaningless. In any case, it seems impressive.

You know what else is impressive? The excerpt below is impressive. What will Madison Ave think of next?   

  • Feeling like all you want for Christmas is a decent night’s sleep? If that gift does not come at home, hotels across the United States are looking to profit from the sleep deficit this holiday season by offering sleep packages to a growing population of “wired and tired” guests.

I get it. Lacking sleep is a drain. Just ask me. I didn’t sleep well last night, apparently. My betrothed tells me I woke up agitated, making noises, and moving about. I don’t know, maybe I was chasing a squirrel, or a cat was teasing me from up high in a tree, or maybe, a pack of coyotes was chasing me … Wait! Forget that. That is what I imagine goes through our dog’s mind when she is agitated, making noises, and moving about in the night. I have no clue about what caused my behavior last night. Maybe it was the pending Fed noise coming out today that woke me from a sound sleep.

What I do know is the market is still wavering in the green, my trades are listless, and I am sleepy. Time for a nap, I guess, but what if I sleep through the big “news” coming out in a couple of hours? What if …

Trade in the day; Invest in your life …

Trader Ed