The end of the week has not been kind to the equity futures markets. For three of the four weeks in April the futures – as measured by our preferred trading vehicle, the S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) – have gone in the tank as the weekend approaches.

Last week was no exception. The June futures contract (ESM4) struggled to a high of 1882.50 on Thursday (but failed to make a higher high) and dropped to a low of 1853 on Friday.

It rallied a little into the close, but a lot of traders will be watching the open on Monday morning with fear and loathing – especially if they start shooting at each other in the Ukraine.

TOPPY AND CHOPPY

The market is looking toppy and choppy, and while we may get a little support from the end-of-month window dressing and a Fed announcement Wednesday, we are coming into the period when traders traditionally “sell in May and go away.” If they do that this year, the rally will go away.

Despite that, for the long term we are still bulls; we expect this market to reach 1900,  and possibly 1920. Eventually.

For the shorter term, the decision point this week will be around 1853 – Friday’s low – with major support at 1850-1846.50.

If the price drops below 1843, we will expect to see 1835-1833, with the possibility of reaching 1823-1825.

If the ES manages to hold above 1853, we could well see a return to 1868-70, and perhaps as far as Friday’s unfilled gap at 1874-75. That will be a short entry for us.

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Chart: S&P 500 e-mini futures (ESM4). 2014 to date.