U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, thereby reconfirming its bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13.

Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has firmed up since 6/9/14 and is now systematically bullish again. Absolute price rose to a new high on 6/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. Price turned systematically bullish on 5/16/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA.

Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 13 weeks on 6/25/14 and fell further below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,959.53, up 0.49%) absolute price opened lower but immediately reversed to the upside. SPX worked higher during the session in several modest size waves, recovering most of Tuesday’s relatively steep loss. SPX closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.

Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down after hitting an overbought level above 94 on 6/23/14.

NYSE total volume rose 1% to a level 6% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 229, all year 2014 has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/24/14 after failing to match the recent highs of 6/9/14 to 6/10/14. In addition, year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Overvalued, overbought, bearish divergences, low trading volume on up days (generally, not always), rising trading volume on down days, and excessively bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. At the same time, the overwhelming bullish majority appears to be going on faith that central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies will make stocks rise ever higher, despite the obvious fact that central banks have failed to prevent numerous substantial market declines in the past.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA, but the spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Still, OEF/SPY has stabilized somewhat since making a low on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/20/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, thereby reconfirming its bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months, above its 50-day SMA, and above its 200-day SMA on 6/19/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 5/28/14. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. GDX/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Absolute price also rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 6/19/14 and remains systematically neutral.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. SLV turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 6/12/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/19/14 but remains systematically neutral. SLV/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

6.19% , CBS , CBS CORP.
5.06% , MON , MONSANTO
5.07% , GCI , GANNETT
6.42% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
4.45% , MDP , MEREDITH
5.16% , BBY , BEST BUY
2.28% , NI , NISOURCE
6.15% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
2.25% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.09% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.83% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.77% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.04% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.42% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.93% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.39% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
2.35% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
2.96% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
1.71% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
3.64% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.45% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
3.86% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
1.79% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.81% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
1.74% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
2.14% , BCR , C R BARD
0.79% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.62% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.61% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.82% , AET , AETNA
1.48% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
0.78% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
1.75% , HES , AMERADA HESS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-8.29% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.36% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-4.53% , MBI , MBIA
-3.44% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-3.61% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
-1.66% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-2.34% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.70% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.47% , K , KELLOGG
-1.18% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.82% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-1.62% , BA , BOEING
-1.68% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.99% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-1.30% , TJX , TJX
-0.47% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.82% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.52% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.09% , TGT , TARGET
-2.01% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.58% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.43% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-1.10% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.49% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.32% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.68% , YHOO , YAHOO
-0.22% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.33% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.11% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-0.88% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.41% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.42% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-0.34% , LB , L Brands, LB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.19% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.09% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.02% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.99% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.93% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.85% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.85% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.84% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.82% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.81% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.81% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.81% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.79% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.79% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.78% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.77% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.76% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.76% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.76% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.75% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.74% , India PS, PIN
0.74% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.74% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.74% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.70% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.69% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.68% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.68% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.68% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.68% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.67% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.64% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.64% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.61% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.60% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.60% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.60% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.56% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.55% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.55% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.55% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.53% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.52% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.52% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.52% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.51% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.51% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.48% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.47% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.45% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.45% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.45% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.42% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.42% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.41% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.40% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.39% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.39% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.39% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.39% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.37% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.35% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.30% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.30% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.28% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.26% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.26% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.24% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.24% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.23% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.23% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.21% , Energy Global, IXC
0.20% , Global 100, IOO
0.19% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.19% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.18% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.18% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.17% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.14% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.13% , Dividend International, PID
0.10% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.10% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.09% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.09% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.04% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.00% , Networking, IGN
0.00% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.09% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.10% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.12% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.16% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.20% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.21% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.25% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.26% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.28% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.37% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.47% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.50% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.58% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.58% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.85% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.92% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.99% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.00% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.02% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.10% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.14% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.17% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.18% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.21% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.48% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.49% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.58% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.61% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.70% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.83% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.89% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.00% , Germany Index, EWG
-2.21% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.34% , France Index, EWQ
-2.36% , Austria Index, EWO
-2.43% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-2.45% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.85% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.44% , Sweden Index, EWD
-4.82% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1968.17, high of 6/24/14

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1905.32, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1822.18, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009