Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/22/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF (XLY) absolute price rose to a new high on 8/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 8/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 8/22/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/22/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,988.40, down 0.20%) absolute price opened lower then traded choppy most of the day. SPX closed modestly below the (true) open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.

NYSE total volume fell 12% to a level 29% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

Although price momentum turned upward on Friday 8/8/14, it is not even close to reversing months-long bearish divergences. On 8/21/14, short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new high for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. On 8/7/14, RSI and MACD broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months, thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. RSI and MACD turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to rise to their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +184, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside in early August, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. The price bounce that started on 8/8/14 is only a Minor Ripple to the upside, and such short-term price moves are ignored as insignificant noise, according to the Dow Theory.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/22/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 8/19/14 and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price has been confined to a neutral trading range between 36.10 and 45.34 for nearly 3 years.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/22/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.97, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/20/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). DBA appears to be heading for a systematically bearish signal–unless its existing 3-month downtrend reverses significantly to the upside, which appears unlikely at this time.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 8/21/14, thereby signaling a medium-term downtrend. Longer term, GLD appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 8/12/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming at 20.24 on 12/23/13.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/22/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 8/19/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price has been in a medium-term downtrend since it peaked at 41.18 on 7/3/14. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

7.39% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
5.21% , GPS , GAP
2.66% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.44% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
1.69% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.02% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.65% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.88% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.71% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.24% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.06% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.33% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
0.61% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
0.56% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.36% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.51% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.98% , YHOO , YAHOO
0.44% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.13% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.35% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
0.38% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.06% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.21% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.35% , KMX , CarMax
0.49% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.18% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.22% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.21% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.40% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.17% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
0.01% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.17% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.24% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-0.17% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.61% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.38% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.34% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-0.63% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.68% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.14% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.91% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.31% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.19% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.95% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.30% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.14% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.08% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.41% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.26% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.33% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.96% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
-0.16% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.37% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.96% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.27% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.31% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-1.22% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.35% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-0.18% , DIA , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.30% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.28% , L , LOEWS
-0.75% , PLL , PALL
-0.80% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.07% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.08% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.13% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.24% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.96% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.56% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.55% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.54% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.44% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.35% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.27% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.25% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.24% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.21% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.19% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.19% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.18% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.16% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.15% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.15% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.13% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.13% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.13% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.13% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.09% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.08% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.07% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.06% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.06% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.05% , India PS, PIN
0.02% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.01% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.01% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.01% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.01% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.01% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.01% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.02% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.02% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.02% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.04% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.06% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.07% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.08% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.08% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.09% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.11% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.13% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.14% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.15% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.15% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.16% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.16% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.17% , Networking, IGN
-0.18% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.18% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.18% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.18% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.21% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.24% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.24% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.24% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.24% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.24% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.25% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.26% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.27% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.27% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.29% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.30% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.30% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.31% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.31% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.31% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.31% , Dividend International, PID
-0.32% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.32% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.33% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.34% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.34% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.35% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.35% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.35% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.36% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.37% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.37% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.37% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.38% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.40% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.40% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.40% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.40% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.41% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.42% , Global 100, IOO
-0.43% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.44% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.48% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.49% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.49% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.52% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.56% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.57% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.58% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.59% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.61% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.62% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.63% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.65% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.65% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.66% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.67% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.67% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.74% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.75% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.76% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.80% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.80% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.82% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.85% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.86% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.88% , France Index, EWQ
-0.91% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.14% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.22% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.23% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.12% , Russia MV, RSX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1994.76, high of 8/21/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1960.96, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1872.97, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009