Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 8/25/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new high on 8/25/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) broke down below its low of the previous 5 weeks and broke down below its 50-day SMA on 8/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral from bullish. Absolute price is also systematically neutral.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke out above a 4-year downtrend line and rose to its highest level in 11 months on 8/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,997.92, up 0.48%) absolute price opened higher on an upside gap and continued to rise during the first 2 hours. SPX surrendered part of its morning gains in the afternoon. SPX closed very near both the (true) open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.

NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level 31% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

Although price momentum turned upward on Friday 8/8/14, it is not even close to reversing months-long bearish divergences. On 8/25/14, short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new high for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. On 8/7/14, RSI and MACD broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months, thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. RSI and MACD turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to rise to their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +316, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside in early August, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. The price bounce that started on 8/8/14 is only a Minor Ripple to the upside, and such short-term price moves are ignored as insignificant noise, according to the Dow Theory.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/25/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 8/19/14 and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price has been confined to a neutral trading range between 36.10 and 45.34 for nearly 3 years.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/22/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke out above a 4-year downtrend line and rose to its highest level in 11 months on 8/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.97, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/20/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). DBA appears to be heading for a systematically bearish signal–unless its existing 3-month downtrend reverses significantly to the upside, which appears unlikely at this time.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 8/21/14, thereby signaling a medium-term downtrend. Longer term, GLD appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) broke down below its low of the previous 5 weeks and broke down below its 50-day SMA on 8/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral from bullish. Absolute price is also systematically neutral.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/22/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 8/19/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price has been in a medium-term downtrend since it peaked at 41.18 on 7/3/14. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

3.25% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
4.91% , JCP , JC PENNEY
2.53% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.36% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
3.36% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.32% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.51% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.01% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.67% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.91% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.07% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
2.14% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
0.69% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.18% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
0.63% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
5.88% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.03% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
0.46% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
0.50% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.42% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.59% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
1.80% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
0.92% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.34% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
0.55% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.36% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.88% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.11% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.45% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.82% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.74% , PEP , PEPSICO
0.72% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.95% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-0.53% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.09% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-1.19% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.41% , GOOG , Google
-0.56% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.48% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.10% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

3.25% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.97% , Russia MV, RSX
1.78% , Italy Index, EWI
1.43% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.43% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.33% , Spain Index, EWP
1.29% , France Index, EWQ
1.22% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.16% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.11% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.08% , Germany Index, EWG
1.07% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.01% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.01% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.99% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.98% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.95% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.94% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.94% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.89% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.88% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.88% , Energy Global, IXC
0.87% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.84% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.83% , Dividend International, PID
0.81% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.80% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.79% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.78% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.78% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.76% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.74% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.72% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.71% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.71% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.70% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.68% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.66% , Global 100, IOO
0.65% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.63% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.61% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.60% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.58% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.58% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.57% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.57% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.56% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.56% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.55% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.55% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.55% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.55% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.54% , Water Resources, PHO
0.52% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.52% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.51% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.51% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.50% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.50% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.50% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.49% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.49% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.49% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.49% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.48% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.47% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.46% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.45% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.45% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.44% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.43% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.41% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.40% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.39% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.39% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.39% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.38% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.38% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.37% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.36% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.36% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.36% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.35% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.35% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.35% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.35% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.34% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.34% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.32% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.29% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.28% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.25% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.24% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.24% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.23% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.23% , Austria Index, EWO
0.22% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.21% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.19% , Australia Index, EWA
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.16% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.12% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.12% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.12% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.12% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.10% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.10% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.09% , Canada Index, EWC
0.08% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.01% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.01% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.00% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.03% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.04% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.06% , Networking, IGN
-0.09% , India PS, PIN
-0.16% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.17% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.18% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.22% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.22% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.26% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.32% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.35% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.36% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.37% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.48% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.48% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.49% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.53% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2001.95, high of 8/25/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1962.20, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1874.11, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009