The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,941.28, up 1.98%) rose for the 4th consecutive trading day and finished above its closing prices of the previous 8 trading days on Tuesday. SPX now has recovered most of its loss from 9/19/14 to 10/15/14. SPX crossed above its 200-day SMA but remains below its 50-day SMA, now at 1,966.81. The 4-day trend is clearly pointing up, but the larger trends may be questionable.

NYSE total volume rose 19% to a level 19% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 96, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Currently, the U.S. stock market is in a short-term, minor Ripple upside correction within a medium-term Secondary Reaction to the downside.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) declined since making a peak on 10/9/14 and is now systematically neutral. The absolute price of QQQ has been trending down since 9/18/14 and is systematically neutral.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/10/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell sharply recently, after rising above its highs of the previous 13 months on 10/13/14 . The OEF/SPY trend has turned neutral again. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.78, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX has been trending down since it peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

9.87% , WAT , WATERS
2.59% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
7.31% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
3.65% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
7.48% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
3.14% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.24% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
5.25% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
6.45% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.08% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.51% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
8.15% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
3.51% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
3.66% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
3.73% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
1.61% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
3.62% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
5.05% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
2.34% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
2.41% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.75% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
4.54% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.32% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
3.23% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
4.27% , NVDA , NVIDIA
2.40% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
3.72% , ZION , ZIONS
3.18% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
1.98% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
5.25% , SNV , SYNOVUS
5.38% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
5.31% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.45% , PID , Dividend International, PID
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-6.03% , KO , COCA COLA
-2.28% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-3.92% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.37% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-5.21% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.74% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.66% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.99% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.94% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-3.96% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.63% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.46% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-0.63% , ED , CON ED
-0.18% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.09% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.10% , K , KELLOGG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

3.69% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
3.14% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
3.04% , Energy SPDR, XLE
3.02% , Energy DJ, IYE
2.99% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.87% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.82% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.65% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
2.63% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
2.59% , Energy Global, IXC
2.58% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.56% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.46% , Water Resources, PHO
2.45% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.43% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
2.41% , Networking, IGN
2.39% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.36% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.34% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.34% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.27% , MidCap Russell, IWR
2.26% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.23% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.20% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
2.20% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.19% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.18% , Italy Index, EWI
2.16% , Technology DJ US, IYW
2.16% , Materials SPDR, XLB
2.14% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
2.09% , Canada Index, EWC
2.08% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.08% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.08% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
2.05% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
2.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.99% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.98% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.98% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.98% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.98% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.97% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.97% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.97% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.95% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.94% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.93% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.91% , France Index, EWQ
1.90% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.87% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.87% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.86% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.83% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.81% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.80% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.80% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.79% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.78% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.76% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.76% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.72% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.67% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.66% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.65% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.65% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.64% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.63% , Spain Index, EWP
1.61% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.59% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.58% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.53% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.51% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.50% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.48% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.48% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.48% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.45% , Dividend International, PID
1.42% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.38% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.34% , Germany Index, EWG
1.34% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.31% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.29% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.29% , Austria Index, EWO
1.29% , Global 100, IOO
1.28% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.23% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.20% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.18% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.16% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.08% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.03% , Russia MV, RSX
1.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.99% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.98% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.97% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.95% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.94% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.91% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.90% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.90% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.87% , India PS, PIN
0.81% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.81% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.76% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.72% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.66% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.65% , Australia Index, EWA
0.62% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.57% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.51% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.51% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.48% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.46% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.43% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.42% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.42% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.42% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.42% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.39% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.35% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.34% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.27% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.25% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.06% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.14% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.20% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.22% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.23% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.27% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.80% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.90% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.94% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-3.96% , Brazil Index, EWZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1,966.81, 50-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1906.96, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009