* Latest Market Developments *

There is a heavier slate of U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday, highlighted by the second-quarter report on gross domestic product. Market expectations are for the U.S. second-quarter GDP to come in at up 3.3%, on an annual basis. Other U.S. data released Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the U.S. house price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

Tuesday could be the busiest trading day in the U.S. markets this week. Activity is likely to start to wind down on Wednesday, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Typically, Friday finds one of the lightest-volume trading days of the year for U.S. markets.

In overnight news the OECD again warned that economic stagnation in the European Union is problematic for the entire global economic system. The OECD urged the European Central Bank to enact still more monetary policy stimulus measures.

The market place is looking ahead to Thursday’s OPEC meeting. Some believe the beleaguered oil cartel could reduce its overall daily oil production quota, or at least call for strict adherence to existing quotas, most of which are ignored by OPEC nations. Nymex crude oil futures are trading not far above the recent three-year low. This could be a “make-or-break meeting for OPEC—or at least its most important meeting in years. Saudi Arabia and Iran will be the key players at the OPEC meeting.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now. The still-simmering Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the next geopolitical hotspot to escalate.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 March e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading and hovering just below last Friday’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 2,065.00 and then at 2,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,050.00 and then at 2,043.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hit another 14-year high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 4,300.00 and then at 4,315.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 4,280.75 and then at Monday’s low of 4,260.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and are just below Friday’s record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s record high of 17,865 and then at 17,900. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 17,770 and then at 17,745. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a four-week high overnight. Bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 2/32 and then at 141 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 20/32 and then at 140 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early trading. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.08.0 and then at the November high of 126.10.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.03.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a contract and four-year high on Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 88.800 and then at 89.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 88.250 and then at 88.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering in a bear market. Prices are hovering not far above the recent four-year low. Bears remain in firm overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.47 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. The grain market bulls are fading as near-term price uptrends have been negated in corn and soybeans. Wheat still sees a near-term price uptrend in place. Focus has turned to worldwide demand and the prospects for the South American corn and soybean crops. Trading in the grain futures markets could be choppy and sideways into the end of the year.