Today, I go all economic on you, but first, let me just say the Greece thing is so stale. Just get to it boys and girls. Either sign up to the plan or get your bony butt out of the EU. Okay, maybe that is a bit too blunt. Maybe a professional diplomat could say it better.

  • “There is no more time for gambling. The day is coming, I’m afraid, that someone says that the game is over.”

I must admit the diplomat did say it better, but we both meant the same thing. Anyway, my position is still what it has always been – Greece cannot afford to quit the EU, so a bitter pill is better than one that kills you.

  • Hopes that Greek was nearing an aid-for-reforms deal helped European shares add to their best day in over a month and pushed down bond yields on Thursday.

Speaking of pushing equity shares higher. Yesterday’s rather substantial uptick in the market is followed today with a strong push this morning. What on earth is going on?

  • U.S. retail sales surged in May as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods even as they paid a bit more for gasoline, the latest sign economic growth is finally gathering steam.

Oh yeh, the economic data is getting better, just as it has gotten better every spring after a dismal winter forever, or so it seems. That is one point to make – don’t pay attention to that breathless media behind the curtain. It is all smoke and there is no fire more often than not (how do they do that anyway – no fire? Maybe the smoke is from frozen carbon dioxide.)

I am referring to the panting about the poor US economic performance in Q1. Remember all that dismal reporting? The breathless media knew then as they know now, all government data is subject to revision and that the government always errs to the downside.

  • Revisions to March retail sales together with upbeat data on healthcare spending, as well as already reported revisions to construction spending, trade and wholesale inventory data suggest that output was probably not that weak.

Probably not that weak? Okay, not that weak, but weak enough to follow the now historical pattern I mentioned earlier. My point is that all the hand wringing was for naught, as the US economy is coming back strong now.

  • U.S. business inventories recorded their biggest increase in nearly a year in April, which could see economists raise their second-quarter growth estimates.

And the beat goes on. The market is seeing past the Fed to what truly matters – the US economy. How else do you explain yesterday’s and today’s action in the market? The  economic news, the fundamentals, are now seeming to trump the much ballyhooed fear about the Fed raising rates, which is much more likely in September, especially with the data that just came out today as well.

  • It was the 14th straight week that unemployment claims held below the 300,000 threshold, which is usually associated with a firming labor market.

Usually? No, flat out, the fact that unemployment claims have remained below 300,000 for 14 weeks is factually associated with a firming labor market. No doubt about it.

  • Sales at clothing stores surged 1.5 percent. Receipts at online stores climbed 1.4 percent and sales at sporting goods stores increased 0.8 percent. Sales of building materials and garden equipment advanced 2.1 percent.

Americans are buying across the board, for sure, but the last item, building materials and garden stuff, I have to take credit for that. We are finally finishing up our back yard remodel, and even though we upcycled as much as we could, I am sure we accounted for at least 1.5% of that 2.1% uptick in sales. Yup! I am pretty dang sure.

Trade in the day; invest in your life …

Trader Ed