It’s Friday mid-day, and we can just about tuck another wild market week away.  It appears today the market might just close at a nine-week high, which tells us what? Not much, I am afraid, other than the market likes oil prices going up. The VIX, of course, is going the other way, just about to the low 16 range, which is the clearest signal yet the positive market activity this past week is real. If so, then consider this …

  • The Renaissance IPO Index, which tracks the performance of the last two years’ worth of IPOs, significantly underperformed markets starting in August through the first half of February. But a recent surge in the index, up about 14% since the middle of February, may signal that an end to the IPO drought is in sight.

Just like the reality of the overall market, that which appears to be one thing might just be another – illusions everywhere.

  • In past cases of inactivity that lasted more than 31 days since 2000 – including after the Facebook IPO in May of 2012 and during the euro debt crisis in August of 2011 – the average 90-day return for companies that came public within the first three months after the IPO window opened was 24 percent, outperforming the S&P by a staggering 20 percentage points.

Never settle on the first glance. Appearances might be deceiving. Opportunity hides behind the mask of worry. Go find it.

Sophisticated Quote of the Week

  • “It’s going to be a short covering rally that rips people’s faces off,” said Bill Smith, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Battery Park Capital. “It’s going to be ugly.”

Ya gotta give it to Mr. Smith. He makes no pretense toward erudition when discussing the oil rally.