OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The real feature in overnight/early morning trading is lower gold and crude oil prices as a cease-fire has been brokered between Israel and Hezbollah. Stock index prices are solidly higher and U.S. Treasuries are weaker.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

There are no major U.S. economic reports on tap today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The indexes are solidly higher in early morning electronic trading, on a “relief rally” following the cease-fire agreement in the Middle East. We are still in the “dog days” of August, which likely means lackluster and trendless trading until the end of the month.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,274.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week’s high of 1,288.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the August high of 1,297.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,271.70
1st Support:—— 1,266.40
2nd Support:—— 1,260.50
1st Resistance:— 1,277.60
2nd Resistance:— 1,282.90

September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,497.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at last week’s low of 1,482.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at the August high of 1,538.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,494.25
1st Support:—— 1,486.75
2nd Support:—— 1,477.75
1st Resistance:— 1,503.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,510.75

September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at last week’s low of 11,071 and then more stops just below support at 11,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 11,150 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,175. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,114
1st Support:—— 11,078
2nd Support:—— 11,036
1st Resistance:— 11,156
2nd Resistance:— 11,192

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Both notes and bond prices are trading weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls are fading and near-term tops could be in place, if the markets close lower today.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 108 8/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 108 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 108 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 108 12/32
1st Support:—– 108 2/32
2nd Support:—– 107 27/32
1st Resistance:– 108 19/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 29/32

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 106.05.0
1st Support:—— 105.30.0
2nd Support:—— 105.26.0
1st Resistance:— 106.09.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.16.0