Thursday, January 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

 

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. jobs report on Friday morning is looming over traders’ heads. That report is likely to show more severe weakness in the U.S. economy. The impending jobs report has pressured the stock indexes and the U.S. dollar this week. Look for a more active trading day on Friday, and possibly a more tentative trading day in many markets today.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker again in early morning trading today. Bulls are now losing what little technical momentum they had gained over the past several weeks.

March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 895.20 and then at 880.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 907.40 and then at Wednesday’s high of 919.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 885.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 908.00

1st Support:——– 896.20

2nd Support:——– 887.20

1st Resistance:—– 917.00

2nd Resistance:—– 928.80

March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,225.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,200.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,247.50 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,269.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,213.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,245.35

1st Support:—— 1,221.20

2nd Support:—— 1,202.85

1st Resistance:— 1,263.70

2nd Resistance:— 1,287.85

March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,600 and then more stops just below support at 8,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,700 and then just above resistance at 8,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,675

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,760

1st Support:—— 8,659

2nd Support:—— 8,575

1st Resistance:— 8,844

2nd Resistance:— 8,945

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on some short covering. Serious chart damage has occurred recently as it appears a major market top is in place. However, selling interest in bonds and notes will likely be limited ahead of and just following the U.S. jobs report.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132 12/32 and then at 132 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 133 12/32 and then at 133 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 132 27/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 132 22/32

1st Support:—– 131 31/32

2nd Support:—– 131 6/32

1st Resistance:– 133 15/32

2nd Resistance:– 134 6/32

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 124.28.0 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 124.08.5 and then at 124.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.09.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 124 15/32

1st Support:—– 124 1/32

2nd Support:—– 123 19/32

1st Resistance:– 124 29/32

2nd Resistance:– 125 11/32

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.50 and then at Wednesday’s high of 84.09. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.76 and then at 82.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 82.64. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3500 and then at 1.3450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3637 and then at 1.3700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3815. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $849.80 and then at $860.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of $836.00 and then at $825.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $834.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $43.63 and then just above resistance at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $41.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $40.87. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices solidly lower in overnight trading, on a profit-taking pullback from recent gains. The grain bulls faded Wednesday. Remember that the “February Break” phenomenon is approaching. The key “outside markets” are neutral to bullish early today, as crude oil is near steady and the U.S. dollar is weaker. Traders are anticipating next Monday morning’s USDA supply and demand report.