October 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There was no real feature in overnight/early morning trading today, as traders await the key U.S. jobs report out at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Crude oil and gold prices are weaker, while stock indexes are weaker and Treasuries are slightly higher.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today the employment report, the ECRI inflation gauge and consumer credit data. President Bush speaks on the jobs data today. The bond market does close early today, ahead of the Columbus Day holiday Monday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday’s low of 1,356.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,352.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday’s contract high of 1,363.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,370.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,360.20
1st Support:—— 1,357.20
2nd Support:—— 1,353.50
1st Resistance:— 1,363.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,366.85

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 738.05. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 730.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 749.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 755.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:———— 745.37
1st Support:—— 741.50
2nd Support:—— 734.15
1st Resistance:— 752.70
2nd Resistance:— 756.55

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 11,888 and then more stops just below support at 11,830. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s contract high of 11,940 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,975. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,918
1st Support:—— 11,896
2nd Support:—— 11,866
1st Resistance:— 11,948
2nd Resistance:— 11,970

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago, as traders await the jobs report. Look for active trading following the report.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 112 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 112 19/32
1st Support:—– 112 5/32
2nd Support:—– 111 26/32
1st Resistance:– 112 30/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 12/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of high 108.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish for today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday’s low of 108.05.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 108.12.0
1st Support:—— 108.03.0
2nd Support:—— 107.30.0
1st Resistance:— 108.17.0
2nd Resistance:— 108.26.0