October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no major feature in overnight/early morning trading today. The U.S. dollar is weaker and gold and crude oil prices are also weaker. U.S. stocks are weaker and U.S. T-Bond and T-Note markets are firmer early today.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today is the MBA refinancing index, U.S. Treasury budget data and FOMC minutes from the Sept. 20 meeting. Richmond Fed president Lacker speaks in Washington today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side following recent gains.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 1,354.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,350.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,363.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,370.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,360.25
1st Support:—— 1,357.50
2nd Support:—— 1,354.40
1st Resistance:— 1,363.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,366.20

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 747.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week’s low of 740.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 753.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 760.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:———— 750.60
1st Support:—— 747.75
2nd Support:—— 744.40
1st Resistance:— 754.00
2nd Resistance:— 756.90

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,890 and then more stops just below support at 11,850. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s contract high of 11,943 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,975. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,916
1st Support:—— 11,893
2nd Support:—— 11,866
1st Resistance:— 11,943
2nd Resistance:— 11,966

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. Bears have gained some fresh near-term downside technical momentum recently.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 111 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 110 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 111 5/32
1st Support:—– 110 22/32
2nd Support:—– 110 12/32
1st Resistance:– 111 15/32
2nd Resistance:– 111 30/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 107.19.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday’s low of 107.04.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 107.11.0
1st Support:—— 107.02.0
2nd Support:—— 106.28.0
1st Resistance:— 107.17.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.26.0