Stock Indexes Weaker, Bonds Firmer Early

October 13--Jim Wyckoff's Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil and gold prices. The U.S. dollar is slightly weaker, U.S. stocks are weaker and Treasuries are slightly firmer early today.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today is weekly USDA export sales, retail sales, import prices, business inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading, on a corrective pullback from strong gains Thursday. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on their side following recent gains.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,363.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,358.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's contract high of 1,371.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,375.00. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------ 1,367.00 1st Support:------ 1,362.30 2nd Support:------ 1,353.90 1st Resistance:--- 1,375.40 2nd Resistance:--- 1,380.10

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 753.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 747.70. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 763.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 770.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:------------ 758.25 1st Support:------ 752.80 2nd Support:------ 742.25 1st Resistance:--- 768.75 2nd Resistance:--- 774.25

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,975 and then more stops just below support at 11,950. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's contract high of 12,016 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 12,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 11,984 1st Support:------ 11,952 2nd Support:------ 11,898 1st Resistance:--- 12,038 2nd Resistance:--- 12,070

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly firmer early today. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 111 9/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 110 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 110 26/32 1st Support:----- 110 18/32 2nd Support:----- 110 14/32 1st Resistance:-- 110 30/32 2nd Resistance:-- 111 6/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 107.08.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.14.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 106.29.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:------------ 107.04.0 1st Support:------ 106.31.0 2nd Support:------ 106.28.0 1st Resistance:--- 107.07.0 2nd Resistance:--- 107.12.0