October 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher Treasury futures prices. The U.S. dollar and stock indexes are weaker, and gold and crude oil are firmer today.

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U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on their side following recent gains to multi-month highs. But some profit-taking pressure could set in very soon, including today.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 1,371.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,368.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday’s contract high of 1,378.10. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,380.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,375.30
1st Support:—— 1,372.50
2nd Support:—— 1,368.90
1st Resistance:— 1,378.90
2nd Resistance:— 1,381.70

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 767.10. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 760.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 775.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 780.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:———— 771.95
1st Support:—— 768.90
2nd Support:—— 764.05
1st Resistance:— 776.80
2nd Resistance:— 779.85

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,995 and then more stops just below support at Friday’s low of 11,963. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s contract high of 12,050 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 12,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 12,026
1st Support:—— 12,001
2nd Support:—— 11,971
1st Resistance:— 12,056
2nd Resistance:— 12,081

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today. Bulls are regaining some near-term upside technical momentum.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 9/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 110 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at last week’s low of 110 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 110 16/32
1st Support:—– 110 12/32
2nd Support:—– 110 4/32
1st Resistance:– 110 24/32
2nd Resistance:– 110 28/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are still neutral to bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 107.10.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 107.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at last week’s low of 106.25.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 107.00.0
1st Support:—— 106.29.0
2nd Support:—— 106.24.0
1st Resistance:— 107.05.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.08.0