Monday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly lower crude oil prices. Stock indexes are weaker and Treasuries are slightly higher. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher today.

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U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are losing some upside technical momentum. The indexes are due for some more profit-taking soon.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,380.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,375.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,384.30. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,390.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,386.50
1st Support:—— 1,379.55
2nd Support:—— 1,374.25
1st Resistance:— 1,391.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,398.70

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is back above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 765.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at last week’s low of 761.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 773.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week’s high of 780.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:———— 772.60
1st Support:—— 766.00
2nd Support:—— 762.00
1st Resistance:— 776.65
2nd Resistance:— 783.27

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday’s low of 12,110 and then more stops just below support at 12,050. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 12,190 and then more buy stops just above resistance at the contract high of 12,213. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 12,146
1st Support:—— 12,101
2nd Support:—— 12,066
1st Resistance:— 12,181
2nd Resistance:— 12,226

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today, on follow-through strength from good gains late last week. Bulls have solid near-term technical momentum to start the week.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day today. The 9-day is poised today to move above below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 111 22/32
1st Support:—– 111 13/32
2nd Support:—– 110 31/32
1st Resistance:– 112 4/32
2nd Resistance:– 112 13/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is poised to move above the 18-day moving average today. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.23.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 107.21.0
1st Support:—— 107.16.0
2nd Support:—— 107.08.0
1st Resistance:— 107.29.0
2nd Resistance:— 108.02.0