Friday, December 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

 

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower crude oil prices and solidly lower U.S. stock index futures prices. The bailout package for the U.S. auto makers has now stalled in Congress and that’s bearish stocks.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Today it appears that crude oil is ready to lead the commodity markets on another near-term leg down in price action. It would not surprise me to see some commodity futures markets revisit their recent lows and then attempt to rebound from those levels–to possibly form some bullish double-bottom reversal patterns on the daily bar charts.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning trading today. Rallies still appear to be near-term selling opportunities in the stock indexes.

March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but has turned down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 828.60 and then at the December low of 813.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 850.00 and then at the overnight high of 872.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 827.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 882.20

1st Support:——– 859.85

2nd Support:——– 845.20

1st Resistance:—– 896.85

2nd Resistance:—– 919.20

March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,138.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,125.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,176.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,167.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,199.35

1st Support:—— 1,166.70

2nd Support:—— 1,143.35

1st Resistance:— 1,122.70

2nd Resistance:— 1,225.35

March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,200 and then more stops just below support at 8,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,300 and then just above resistance at 8,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,260

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,639

1st Support:—— 8,478

2nd Support:—— 8,359

1st Resistance:— 8,758

2nd Resistance:— 8,919

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today, and set fresh contract and multi-year highs overnight. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid today’s stock market weakness.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 134 10/32 and then at 134 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight contract and all-time high of 135 27/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 134 8/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 134 5/32

1st Support:—– 133 9/32

2nd Support:—– 132 1/32

1st Resistance:– 135 13/32

2nd Resistance:– 136 9/32

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 125.13.5 and then at this 125.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 124.04.0 and then at 123.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.01.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 123 20/32

1st Support:—– 122 31/32

2nd Support:—– 121 26/32

1st Resistance:– 124 25/32

2nd Resistance:– 125 14/32

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh seven-week low overnight and the bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 84.79 and then at 85.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.98 and then at 83.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.64. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The December Euro is firmer in early electronic trading and hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3210 and then just below support at 1.3200. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3372 and then at 1.3400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3276. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today, on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $824.00 and then at this week’s high of $835.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $807.50 and then at $800.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $45.00 and then just above resistance at $46.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $44.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $43.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $46.35. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are mostly bearish early today–crude oil prices are sharply lower and the U.S. stock indexes are lower. After this week’s rally, it looks like the grains might just be poised to retest their recent lows as crude oil falters again.