Mystery Trader

Buying dips is working. Selling rallies is working. Nothing new here.
Except to note that small, consistent trading profits add up nicely after a while. Trading this market has been profitable, although not exactly the stuff that dreams are made of.
Continue to focus on day trading the short swings. Do not hold overnight.
Don’t try for a home run, since you are quite unlikely to get one.
Seasonal tendencies are still positive. So, look to be a little more aggressive on the long side than on the short side.

Thursday’s price dip in the indexes on news (of manufacturing contraction, as shown by a decline in the Philadelphia Fed index) looks like a buying opportunity for a trade.
Seasonal tendencies should be positive now, so buying dips ought to work.
I will be selling rallies as well, since that is working just fine, thank you.
Just trade the short swings. Don’t even look for the big one.

Selling into rallies obviously is working very well in recent days, especially fading a strong opening.
Buying minor trading dips is working a bit less well very recently, but it still seems like the right idea.
These middle weeks of December often are choppy, so let’s just play for a choppy market.
No home runs, but lots of base hits.

Big up open expected on CPI news.
This is the kind of selling opportunity I’m talking about.
I expect significant selling this afternoon as traders even up for the weekend.

My guess is that the rally has more or less run out of steam.
The trend already is turning choppy.
Note that does not rule out marginally higher highs or lower lows.
But breakouts might be false ones, with no follow through.
Therefore, buy dips and sell rallies.
That is, buy them when they look weak,
and sell them when they look strong.

I am still buying minor dips and selling minor rallies.
I am still not wanting to take much risk.
I am still not holding positions very long.
I am still not holding any overnight positions.
I am now trading both sides, both long and short.
Bullish momentum has died down,
and a choppy up and down trading range may be developing.

M&A activity and lower oil prices are providing fresh stimulus for the bullish side.

The market seems to have regained significant upside momentum,
and that usually does not turn on a dime.

I am buying minor dips and selling rallies.
Still not wanting to take much risk of holding positions very long.

The short side is on hold, probably for a day or two, at least,
until the bullish momentum dies down.

I am seeing a lot of contradictory noise.
No coherent pattern on which to base reasonable guidance.
Hard to make sense of it all.
I am focusing on quick scalps with tight limits on risk exposure.