Mystery Trader

Last week’s downside reversal was in reaction to a couple of disappointing earnings surprises. It looks to me like nothing more than an aberration within the larger trend, which seems to be growing increasingly choppy. Also, stock and group rotation seems more important than the general market trend.

Seasonal tendencies are bullish this week.

But be very careful on Wednesday. There could be big volatility (in both directions) around the 2:15 p.m. Fed policy announcement. Trading around that news is uncomfortably close to gambling.

Buy dips and sell rallies. Limit risk. The trading range, choppy market, I have been looking for may be starting.

It looks to me like a normal pullback has run its course.

Technology, energy stocks, and small caps appear oversold, short term.

Seasonal tendencies are back to bullish again, from today to Feb. 2nd.

So, look to be a little more aggressive on the long side than on the short side.

For this week and next week, buy small dips and trade with an upside bias.

Beyond that, the forces impacting the market are still a mixed bag, so I am looking for more of a trading range, choppy market.

Maybe.
Buying the dip seems to be working better, all of a sudden.
With commodities collapsing, all that money has to go somewhere. Why not stocks?
This does not mean that I am giving up my counter-trend, day-trading strategy. That is still working. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
The forces impacting the market are still very much a mixed bag, in my opinion. And so, I still do not see any reason to take on overnight risk or to be overly aggressive on the either the long side or the short side.
Just trade ‘em–maybe with a little upside bias for the time being.

Buying the dip didn’t work on Friday, since stock prices gapped down on news and never managed a worthwhile rally.
But that that does not mean the counter trend trading strategy won’t work today. It has been working most days.
The forces impacting the market are still very much a mixed bag, so I am looking for a choppy trading range market, probably with some false breakouts and breakdowns included just to make it interesting!
I so not see any reason to take on overnight risk or to be overly aggressive on the either the long side or the short side.
Just trade ‘em.

Selling rallies work well yesterday.
Today, let’s buy the dip.
The forces impacting the market are a mixed bag, so I am looking for a continuation of a trading range, choppy market, probably with an upside bias.
Seasonal tendencies are still positive. So, look to be a little more aggressive on the long side than on the short side.