Archive for June, 2007

Still on the Defensive

Wednesday, June 27th, 2007

Some will be talking “oversold” by now, but momentum is pointing south, with no clear end in sight.
This is not a place to become overly bearish, however.
Stay flexible and TRADE.

On the Defensive, Short Term

Sunday, June 10th, 2007

People say the stock market now looks like it did in February. That correction took three weeks to work itself out fully.
History repeats in a general way, but not in a detailed way. There are lots of variations. It is a good bet that this time will not be exactly like February.
Still, there are plenty of other past shakeouts to use as models, and most of them lead me to look for some more downside followed by choppy bottom testing, perhaps lasting until month end.
I “look for” this scenario in a general way. I don’t expect the exact same pattern.
I always want to stay flexible and responsive to what the market tells me as it unfolds day by day. We really can’t see much ahead in the fog of the war of trading survival.

“triple sell”? What the hell?

Thursday, June 7th, 2007

A very big investment bank reportedly issued a “triple sell” warning on European equities for the first time since the dotcom bust.
It reportedly said it expects a 14% correction in European equities over the next six months.

Ha! If they knew that, they’d have ALL the money!
But I’ve got all the money, so they are damn liars!

I expect this crap to blow over like that tempest in a tea pot you heard of from your mom but don’t actually know anything about.
The point is, nobody is really that smart. We are all wrong most of the time, and we all lie about it all the time.
Even me. You see, I don’t really have all the money. Honest I don’t.