TraderBlog

Thursday, July 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are supporting buying interest in most of the other commodity futures markets today.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Have you noticed the recent rally in U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes? Prices hit fresh six-week highs on Wednesday. While there is a profit-taking pullback today, the bond market bulls have gained good upside technical momentum recently. The rally in U.S. Treasuries also suggests the U.S. stock indexes will see sideways to lower price action in the near term. The rally in Treasuries also suggests the U.S. dollar will see limited selling pressure in the near term.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on short covering. The bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum, as prices have set multi-week lows this week.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 873.70 and then at Wednesday’s low of 865.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 883.30 and then at this week’s high of 898.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 900.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 874.20

1st Support:——– 865.05

2nd Support:——– 856.40

1st Resistance:—– 882.85

2nd Resistance:—– 892.00

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,400.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,393.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,425.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,447.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,435.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,405.00

1st Support:—— 1,394.00

2nd Support:—— 1,381.00

1st Resistance:— 1,418.00

2nd Resistance:— 1,429.00

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,038. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at 8,255. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,345

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,106

1st Support:—— 8,048

2nd Support:—— 7,981

1st Resistance:— 8,173

2nd Resistance:— 8,231

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. The bulls have recently gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but still need to show more power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 119 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 120 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 120 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 17/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

122 16/32–second pivot point resistance

121 22/32–first pivot point resistance

121 19/32–100-day moving average

121 11/32–previous day’s high

120 29/32–previous day’s close

120 18/32–pivot point

119 24/32–first pivot point support

119 16/32–4-day moving average

119 13/32–previous day’s low

119 8/32–Previous Month’s high

118 31/32–9-day moving average

118 20/32–second pivot point support

117 16/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.15.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 118.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.16.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 117.09.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.23.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 19/32–second pivot point resistance

119 2/32–first pivot point resistance

118 31/32–100-day moving average

118 23/32–previous day’s high

118 16/32–previous day’s close

118 5/32–pivot point

117 20/32–first pivot point support

117 12/32–4-day moving average

117 9/32–previous day’s low

116 27/32–9-day moving average

116 23/32–second pivot point support

116 23/32–previous month’s high

115 31/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.50 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.23 and then at 80.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3900 and then at the overnight low of 1.3858. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.4050. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from losses on Wednesday and amid a weaker U.S. dollar today. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $920.00 and then at $925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $910.00 and then at this week’s low of $904.80. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $922.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent strong losses. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $62.00 and then just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of $62.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.34 and then more sell stops just below support at $60.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short-covering and corrective bounces following recent strong selling pressure. Grain bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn, soybeans and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans. The key “outside markets” are bullish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is lower and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer.

Wednesday, July 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices, which hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Prices have dropped around $10.00 a barrel in just over a week’s time.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Evidence is mounting that the “commodity play” that drove raw commodity markets higher the past several months is unwinding. The fact that crude oil and gold prices have been trending lower the past few weeks, while at the same time the U.S. dollar has also been trading sideways to lower, is a warning signal to commodity market bulls.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer in early morning trading today. The bears have some downside near-term technical momentum recently, as prices have set multi-week lows this week.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 875.50 and then at 865.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 890.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 846.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 884.30

1st Support:——– 870.55

2nd Support:——– 861.80

1st Resistance:—– 893.05

2nd Resistance:—– 906.80

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,401.00 and then at 1,385.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,425.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,447.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,333.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,418.65

1st Support:—— 1,390.35

2nd Support:—— 1,372.65

1st Resistance:— 1,436.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,464.65

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 8,095 and then more stops just below support at 8,050. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at Tuesday’s high of 8,255. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,913

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,160

1st Support:—— 8,066

2nd Support:—— 8,000

1st Resistance:— 8,226

2nd Resistance:— 8,320

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to firmer in early trading today. The bulls on Tuesday regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices poked to a fresh six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 13/32 and then at 119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 25/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 17/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 20/32–100-day moving average

120 17/32–second pivot point resistance

120 –first pivot point resistance

119 20/32–previous day’s high

119 15/32–previous day’s close

119 8/32–Previous Month’s high

119 3/32–pivot point

119 2/32–4-day moving average

118 21/32–9-day moving average

118 18/32–first pivot point support

118 6/32–previous day’s low

117 21/32–second pivot point support

117 4/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices poked to a fresh six-week high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.17.5 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.09.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.23.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

118 31/32–100-day moving average

117 29/32–second pivot point resistance

117 18/32–first pivot point resistance

117 12/32–previous day’s high

117 8/32–previous day’s close

117 2/32–pivot point

116 31/32–4-day moving average

116 23/32–first pivot point support

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 19/32–9-day moving average

116 17/32–previous day’s low

116 7/32–second pivot point support

115 23/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.12 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.12 and then at 81.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls have faded a bit recently, but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3858 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3938 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $925.90 and then at this week’s high of $932.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $917.60 and then at the June low of $913.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $62.68 and then just above resistance at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $61.87 and then more sell stops just below support at $61.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, on some short-covering following strong recorded this week. Grain bears still have fresh downside technical momentum on their side. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn, soybeans and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. The key “outside markets” are mostly bearish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are lower, the U.S. dollar is steady to firmer and the U.S. stock indexes are near steady.

Tuesday, July 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It looks like a case of the “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon in most markets today, as they have early this morning reversed the price action seen on Monday.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. The bears have gained a bit of downside near-term technical momentum recently, as prices are in the lower boundaries of their recent sideways trading ranges.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 889.60 and then at Monday’s low of 882.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 900.00 and then at 910.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 904.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 891.20

1st Support:——– 886.35

2nd Support:——– 877.20

1st Resistance:—– 900.35

2nd Resistance:—– 905.20

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,434.50 and then at Monday’s low of 1,422.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,450.00 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,450.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,435.65

1st Support:—— 1,427.35

2nd Support:—— 1,413.65

1st Resistance:— 1,449.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,457.65

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,250 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,350 and then at 8,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,326

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,234

1st Support:—— 8,188

2nd Support:—— 8,099

1st Resistance:— 8,323

2nd Resistance:— 8,369

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. The bulls are fading again and need to show power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at the July low of 117 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 26/32 and then at Monday’s high of 119 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 10/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 22/32–100-day moving average

119 25/32–second pivot point resistance

119 9/32–first pivot point resistance

119 8/32–previous day’s high

119 8/32–Previous Month’s high

118 26/32–previous day’s close

118 25/32–pivot point

118 24/32–4-day moving average

118 11/32–9-day moving average

118 9/32–first pivot point support

118 8/32–previous day’s low

117 25/32–second pivot point support

116 26/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.28.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.05.0 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 –100-day moving average

117 9/32–second pivot point resistance

117 2/32–first pivot point resistance

117 2/32–previous day’s high

116 27/32–previous day’s close

116 27/32–pivot point

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 22/32–4-day moving average

116 20/32–first pivot point support

116 20/32–previous day’s low

116 13/32–second pivot point support

116 12/32–9-day moving average

115 18/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.50 and then at the overnight high of 80.95. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.25 and then at 80.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy, but bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at 1.3950. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4051 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, amid a weaker U.S. dollar this morning. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $932.40 and then at $935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $925.00 and then at Monday’s low of $920.30. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent losses. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at Monday’s high of $65.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then more sell stops just below support at Monday’s low of $63.40. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce following strong losses on Monday. Grain bulls are still in trouble, as one of the more important trading weeks of the year in the grains enters its second day. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn and wheat recently, with soybean bulls also fading. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. The key “outside markets” are bullish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is weaker and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer.

Monday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharply lower crude oil prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Big losses in the crude oil futures market early today are spilling over into selling pressure in most of the other raw commodity futures markets. The commodity market bulls have faded recently and evidence is mounting that market tops have been posted. An examination of the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) shows the index has backed well down from the June high. Commodity market traders will continue to look to the crude oil market for direction. And right now, serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the crude oil market as prices this morning hit a fresh six-week low.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. The bears are gaining some downside near-term technical momentum as prices closed at a bearish weekly low close on Thursday.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 882.50 and then at 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 893.40 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 904.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 901.90

1st Support:——– 884.20

2nd Support:——– 875.10

1st Resistance:—– 911.00

2nd Resistance:—– 928.70

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,425.00 and then at the June low of 1,411.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,450.00 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,450.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,454.75

1st Support:—— 1,430.50

2nd Support:—— 1,415.75

1st Resistance:— 1,469.50

2nd Resistance:— 1,493.75

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,150 and then more stops just below support at 8,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at 8,250. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,326

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,272

1st Support:—— 8,204

2nd Support:—— 8,167

1st Resistance:— 8,309

2nd Resistance:— 8,377

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to weaker in early trading today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side after producing bullish weekly high closes last Thursday.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 18/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 8/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 10/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 26/32–100-day moving average

120 1/32–second pivot point resistance

119 16/32–first pivot point resistance

119 9/32–previous day’s high

119 4/32–Previous Month’s high

118 30/32–previous day’s close

118 23/32–pivot point

118 17/32–4-day moving average

118 6/32–first pivot point support

117 31/32–previous day’s low

117 28/32–9-day moving average

117 13/32–second pivot point support

116 6/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low set

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.02.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.21.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 3/32–100-day moving average

117 19/32–second pivot point resistance

117 7/32–first pivot point resistance

117 2/32–previous day’s high

116 27/32–previous day’s close

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 22/32–pivot point

116 15/32–4-day moving average

116 10/32–first pivot point support

116 5/32–previous day’s low

116 1/32–9-day moving average

115 25/32–second pivot point support

115 6/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.25 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.75 and then at the overnight low of 80.53. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls are fading a bit. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3850 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3950 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh two-week low overnight, amid a stronger U.S. dollar this morning. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $925.00 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $920.50 and then at the June low of $913.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today, and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $64.00 and then just above resistance at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.40 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Grain bulls are in trouble. Serious damage has been inflicted in corn and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. This week will be a critical trading week in the grain futures markets, and Monday looks to start out heavily favoring the bears. The key “outside markets” are bearish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are sharply lower, the U.S. dollar is stronger and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker.

Thursday, July 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

This morning’s U.S. jobs report may prompt some higher volatility in the financial markets today. However, with the long U.S. Independence holiday weekend ahead, many traders will hit the exit doors early today and trading is likely to quickly thin out after mid-morning.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Not much new. Trading remains choppy and lackluster heading into mid-summer. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 907.40 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 919.60 and then this week’s high of 928.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 925.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 920.40

1st Support:——– 912.55

2nd Support:——– 905.90

1st Resistance:—– 927.10

2nd Resistance:—– 934.90

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week’s low of 1,465.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,479.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,497.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,473.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,483.40

1st Support:—— 1,469.85

2nd Support:—— 1,460.90

1st Resistance:— 1,492.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,505.90

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at this week’s low of 8,335. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,448 and then at Wednesday’s high of 8,525. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,471

1st Support:—— 8,416

2nd Support:—— 8,385

1st Resistance:— 8,502

2nd Resistance:— 8,557

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker in early trading today. The bulls have faded after recent gains and need to show fresh power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at this week’s low of 117 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 118 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 10/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 28/32–100-day moving average

119 4/32–Previous Month’s high

119 3/32–second pivot point resistance

118 22/32–first pivot point resistance

118 14/32–4-day moving average

118 13/32–previous day’s high

118 10/32–previous day’s close

118 1/32–pivot point

117 20/32–first pivot point support

117 13/32–9-day moving average

117 11/32–previous day’s low

116 31/32–second pivot point support

115 28/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.14.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the this week’s low of 115.21.5 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 3/32–100-day moving average

116 27/32–second pivot point resistance

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 18/32–first pivot point resistance

116 12/32–previous day’s high

116 12/32–4-day moving average

116 10/32–previous day’s close

116 4/32–pivot point

115 27/32–first pivot point support

115 24/32–9-day moving average

115 21/32–previous day’s low

115 13/32–second pivot point support

115 –18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading has been choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.39 and then at this week’s high of 80.68. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at this week’s low of 79.56. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at this week’s low of 1.3979. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at the overnight high of 1.4152. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4098. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today, amid a stronger U.S. dollar this morning. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $942.10 and then at this week’s high of $947.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $931.00 and then at $925.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $69.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.68 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grain bulls are still in trouble. Serious damage has been inflicted in corn and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. However, there is talk of a heat dome building over the Corn Belt in mid-July. More of this talk would be bullish for corn and beans. Remember that next Monday, the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday, will be a very critical trading day in the grains. Look for high volatility next Monday.

Wednesday, July 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices and a rebound in many other commodity markets.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

I’ve been writing about markets and trading for 25 years. One of my favorite feature stories I’ve written over the years addresses the all-important psychology of trading. If you’d like to read the story, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach it and email it back to you.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer again in early morning trading today. Trading has been choppy and lackluster heading into mid-summer. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 913.70 and then at this week’s low of 907.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s high of 926.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 925.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 916.70

1st Support:——– 907.35

2nd Support:——– 899.20

1st Resistance:—– 924.85

2nd Resistance:—– 934.20

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,474.50 and then at 1,464.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,493.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,473.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,478.10

1st Support:—— 1,463.20

2nd Support:—— 1,450.10

1st Resistance:— 1,491.20

2nd Resistance:— 1,506.10

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 8,335. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 8,503 and then at 8,550. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,411

1st Support:—— 8,318

2nd Support:—— 8,243

1st Resistance:— 8,486

2nd Resistance:— 8,579

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. The bulls have faded a bit after recent gains and need to show fresh power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 24/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 117 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 13/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 118 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 9/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 29/32–100-day moving average

119 19/32–second pivot point resistance

119 4/32–Previous Month’s high

118 31/32–first pivot point resistance

118 27/32–previous day’s high

118 12/32–4-day moving average

118 11/32–previous day’s close

118 7/32–pivot point

117 19/32–first pivot point support

117 15/32–previous day’s low

116 31/32–9-day moving average

116 27/32–second pivot point support

115 19/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the this week’s low of 115.24.0 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.06.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 4/32–100-day moving average

117 2/32–second pivot point resistance

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 21/32–first pivot point resistance

116 19/32–previous day’s high

116 11/32–4-day moving average

116 9/32–previous day’s close

116 7/32–pivot point

115 26/32–first pivot point support

115 24/32–previous day’s low

115 16/32–9-day moving average

115 12/32–second pivot point support

114 27/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading today. Trading has been choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.68 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at this week’s low of 79.69. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3999 and then at this week’s low of 1.3979. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.4149. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4098. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is near higher in early dealings today, on a short-covering bounce from losses on Tuesday. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $935.00 and then at $940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $926.10 and then at this week’s low of $922.70. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.08 and then more sell stops just below support at $69.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce from solid to limit-down losses on Tuesday. Grain bulls are still in trouble. Serious damage has been inflicted recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. However, on Tuesday there was talk of a heat dome building over the Corn Belt in mid-July. More of this talk would be bullish for corn and beans. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.

Tuesday, June 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s an important time for the grain futures markets. Traders today get the latest USDA projections on supply, demand and planted acreage in the U.S. This USDA report is one of the more important grain market reports of the year. The calendar turns to July on Wednesday. That month is the generally the hottest of the year for the Corn Belt, and when rains can become less plentiful in the region. July is when the corn crop progresses through the key pollination stage. Trading next week could be the most important trading week of the year for grains. History shows that existing price trends in grain futures can be reversed the first trading week after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, or can accelerate.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Trading is choppy and lackluster heading into mid-summer. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 907.40 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 925.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 925.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 917.55

1st Support:——– 911.10

2nd Support:——– 900.95

1st Resistance:—– 927.70

2nd Resistance:—– 934.20

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,475.00 and then at 1,464.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,493.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,473.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,480.20

1st Support:—— 1,467.35

2nd Support:—— 1,453.20

1st Resistance:— 1,494.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,507.20

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at Monday’s low of 8,373. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then at 8,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,436

1st Support:—— 8,395

2nd Support:—— 8,331

1st Resistance:— 8,500

2nd Resistance:— 8,541

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today. The bulls have gained near-term technical momentum recently.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 13/32 and then at Monday’s low of 118 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 11/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

122 11/32–Previous Month’s high

121 31/32–100-day moving average

119 22/32–second pivot point resistance

119 4/32–first pivot point resistance

119 4/32–previous day’s high

118 19/32–previous day’s close

118 19/32–pivot point

118 1/32–first pivot point support

118 1/32–previous day’s low

117 30/32–4-day moving average

117 16/32–second pivot point support

116 24/32–9-day moving average

115 12/32–18-day moving average

114 12/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 116.23.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.07.0 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

120 14/32–previous month’s high

119 5/32–100-day moving average

117 1/32–second pivot point resistance

116 25/32–first pivot point resistance

116 23/32–previous day’s high

116 16/32–previous day’s close

116 14/32–pivot point

116 6/32–first pivot point support

116 4/32–previous day’s low

116 3/32–4-day moving average

115 27/32–second pivot point support

115 13/32–9-day moving average

115 12/32–previous month’s low

114 24/32–18-day moving average

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.05 and then at 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.69 and then at 79.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4066 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4149 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4098. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $945.40 and then at last week’s high of $949.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $937.80 and then at Monday’s low of $933.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, but have backed well down from the overnight high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.95 and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on position evening ahead of this morning’s key USDA report. Grain bulls are still fading. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.

Monday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index prices and higher crude oil prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Tuesday is an extra important trading day for the markets. It’s the last trading day of the month, last trading day of the quarter and the year is half finished. For the grains, it’s a also a big USDA report day. It’s the last day of the month and the quarter that the big fund-type traders like to square up positions or adjust them. That can make for bigger market moves or higher volatility.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks. Such will likely continue to be the case heading into the middle of summer.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 907.40 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 925.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 914.15

1st Support:——– 908.30

2nd Support:——– 902.65

1st Resistance:—– 919.80

2nd Resistance:—– 925.65

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,469.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,500.00 and then at the June high of 1,512.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,454.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,474.60

1st Support:—— 1,466.20

2nd Support:—— 1,455.60

1st Resistance:— 1,485.20

2nd Resistance:— 1,493.60

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday’s low of 8,345 and then more stops just below support at 8,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,430 and then at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,375

1st Support:—— 8,343

2nd Support:—— 8,312

1st Resistance:— 8,406

2nd Resistance:— 8,438

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today. The bulls have gained near-term technical momentum recently.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 118 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 11/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

122 11/32–Previous Month’s high

122 1/32–100-day moving average

119 12/32–second pivot point resistance

118 30/32–first pivot point resistance

118 22/32–previous day’s high

118 17/32–previous day’s close

118 9/32–pivot point

117 27/32–first pivot point support

117 19/32–4-day moving average

117 19/32–previous day’s low

117 6/32–second pivot point support

116 13/32–9-day moving average

115 8/32–18-day moving average

114 12/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.24.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.03.5 and then at Friday’s low of 115.26.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

120 14/32–previous month’s high

119 6/32–100-day moving average

116 30/32–second pivot point resistance

116 21/32–first pivot point resistance

116 16/32–previous day’s high

116 13/32–previous day’s close

116 8/32–pivot point

115 31/32–first pivot point support

115 26/32–4-day moving average

115 26/32–previous day’s low

115 18/32–second pivot point support

115 12/32–previous month’s low

115 8/32–9-day moving average

114 24/32–18-day moving average

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 79.90 and then at 79.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy, but bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at the overnight low of 1.3979. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at last week’s high of 1.4133. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $943.20 and then at last week’s high of $949.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $935.00 and then at the overnight low of $933.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $70.06 and then just above resistance at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $68.36. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was lower and soybeans and wheat were firmer. Grain bulls are still fading. Traders are looking forward to next Tuesday’s big USDA supply and demand and acreage report. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.

Friday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in quiet overnight/early morning
trading today is a lower U.S. dollar versus the
other major currencies and higher crude oil prices
that are above $70.00 a barrel.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

I’ve noticed something significant in the market
place this week: There has been a de-coupling of
markets, of sorts. By that I mean the key “outside
markets”—crude oil, the U.S. dollar and the U.S.
stock indexes–which have been such a powerful force
over other markets have this week become less
influential over other markets. In recent months,
many markets’ own supply and demand fundamentals
took a back seat to what the outside markets were
doing on a particular day. This was evident on a
regular basis as most markets were “in synch.” If
the dollar was weaker, then crude oil was higher and
so were most of the other commodity markets. And if
the U.S. stock indexes were higher then crude oil
prices were usually higher. Or, when the stock
market was lower, U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes were
higher. However, in looking at my price screen this
week I noticed that markets appeared to be trading
more on their own fundamentals. For example, the
grain futures markets were mostly down this week as
grain traders focused on weather. T-Bonds and T-
Notes saw buying support coming from good demand
from investors at the U.S. debt auctions. Sugar
rallied strongly on tightening world supply and
demand fundamentals—even on days when the dollar was
stronger. On any given day this week, some commodity
markets were higher and some were lower, as there
was not the “herd mentality” in those markets that
had been seen in recent months. It could be that
this week’s de-coupling of the markets is only
temporary. But if this pattern continues next week,
then odds will become higher that markets and market
price action are returning to “normal”—meaning
prices reacting more to their own supply and demand
fundamentals and less to the key outside markets.
One more very important point: Markets are inter-
related. They always have been and always will be.
What has been so unique the past 18 months has been
the extreme influence those few outside markets have
exerted over most other markets.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early
morning trading today. Bulls and bears are still
fighting for near-term technical control, with
neither able to sustain a price trend the past six
weeks. Such will likely continue to be the case
heading into the middle of summer.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 900.00 and then at Thursday’s
low of 891.30. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at 925.00 and then 935.00. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 903.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————-  908.50
1st Support:——– 899.45
2nd Support:——– 882.30
1st Resistance:—– 925.65
2nd Resistance:—– 934.70

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average
is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical support is located at 1,460.00 and
then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. On the upside, short-term
resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,477.00
and then at 1,490.00. Buy stops are likely located
just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,454.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,460.70
1st Support:—— 1,444.35
2nd Support:—— 1,415.70
1st Resistance:— 1,489.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,505.70

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 8,350 and then more stops just below
support at 8,300. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high
of 8,430 and then at 8,500. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 8,297

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,438
1st Support:—— 8,267
2nd Support:—— 8,119
1st Resistance:— 8,496
2nd Resistance:— 8,577

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher in
early trading today. The bulls on Thursday did gain
some near-term technical momentum. The bulls still
need to more power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 117 19/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 118
5/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 11/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high
122 11/32–Previous Month’s high
122 3/32–100-day moving average
119 20/32–second pivot point resistance
118 27/32–first pivot point resistance
118 9/32–previous day’s high
118 3/32–previous day’s close
117 17/32–pivot point
117 2/32–4-day moving average
116 24/32–first pivot point support
116 6/32–previous day’s low
116 1/32–9-day moving average
115 14/32–second pivot point support
115 2/32–18-day moving average
114 12/32–previous month’s low
110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of
116.11.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
115.26.5 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high
120 14/32–previous month’s high
119 7/32–100-day moving average
117 10/32–second pivot point resistance
116 25/32–first pivot point resistance
116 11/32–previous day’s high
116 7/32–previous day’s close
115 25/32–pivot point
115 16/32–4-day moving average
115 12/32–previous month’s low
115 8/32–first pivot point support
115 2/32–9-day moving average
114 26/32–previous day’s low
114 22/32–18-day moving average
114 8/32–second pivot point support
109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears
have the near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance
at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at 81.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of
79.90 and then at 79.50. Today’s key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is higher in early electronic
trading. Trading has turned choppy, but bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro
finds sell stop orders are likely located just below
technical support at 1.4000 and then at the
overnight low of 1.3980. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight
high of 1.4103 and then at this week’s high of
1.4133. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still
bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff’s Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today. Bulls are
now gaining fresh upside technical momentum. For
August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at $950.00 and then at $960.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $938.20 and then at $930.00. Today’s key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $71.29 and then just above resistance at $72.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$70.00 and then more sell stops just below support
at $69.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering. Grain bulls are still fading. Traders are
looking forward to next Tuesday’s USDA supply and
demand and acreage report. Weather in the Corn Belt
at present is still deemed bearish for corn and
soybeans, and for wheat. But temperatures in the
Corn Belt are heating up heading into July. Remember
that the first trading day after the Fourth of July
holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a
very critical trading day in the grains.

Thursday, June 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web
Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in quiet overnight/early
morning trading today is a firmer U.S.
dollar versus the other major currencies.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

One of the neat things about doing what I do
for a living is that I have an audience. I
get to write every day and give readers my
thoughts and opinions on markets—and on rare
occasions other topics, like today.
Something terrible happened Wednesday
morning in the small Iowa town of
Parkersburg, which is less than 20 miles
from where I live. The legendary Aplington-
Parkersburg high school football coach was
gunned down in the school’s weight room by a
former A-P football player. Coach Ed Thomas
was one of the most successful and respected
high school football coaches in the state
and the U.S. More importantly, he was a very
good citizen, educator of young people and
family man. A year ago, when a powerful
tornado ripped through Parkersburg, Ed
Thomas’s house was blown away, along with
many others, and the high school was
destroyed. As a pillar in the community, Ed
led a rebuilding effort for the high school
and its hallowed football field, which the
locals call “The Sacred Acre.” Ed Thomas was
a major force in getting this small, close-
knit Iowa community back on its feet in the
wake of the killer tornado. Many of us here
in Iowa are still in a state of shock. It
was surreal last night to watch NBC news
anchor Brian Williams report on Coach
Thomas’s murder. My thoughts and prayers go
out to Coach Thomas’s family and the tiny
little Iowa town of Parkersburg. Thanks for
allowing me to share with you my little
tribute to Ed Thomas. Now, it’s back to work
for me.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher
in early morning trading today. Bulls and
bears are still fighting for near-term
technical control, with the bears recently
gaining some fresh downside near-term
technical momentum.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at this week’s
low of 884.30 and then at 875.00. Sell stops
likely reside just under those levels.
Upside resistance for active traders today
is located at the overnight high of 909.00
and then 920.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 903.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————-  897.50
1st Support:——– 888.50
2nd Support:——– 879.00
1st Resistance:—– 907.00
2nd Resistance:—– 916.00

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below
the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at
the overnight low 1,444.75 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 1,421.50. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. On
the upside, short-term resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 1,462.00 and then at
1,477.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1,454.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,463.25
1st Support:—— 1,449.50
2nd Support:—— 1,435.00
1st Resistance:— 1,477.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,491.50

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just
below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,200
and then more stops just below support at
8,150. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at 8,300
and then at Wednesday’s high of 8,370.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 8,297

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,275
1st Support:—— 8,180
2nd Support:—— 8,105
1st Resistance:— 8,351
2nd Resistance:— 8,445

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower
in early trading today. The bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage.
The bulls had made some progress recently,
but need to show fresh power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 116 8/32 and then at 116
even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at the overnight high of 116
25/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 117 1/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high
122 11/32–Previous Month’s high
122 6/32–100-day moving average
118 16/32–second pivot point resistance
117 30/32–previous day’s high
117 14/32–first pivot point resistance
116 28/32–pivot point
116 12/32–previous day’s close
116 10/32–previous day’s low
116 6/32–4-day moving average
115 26/32–first pivot point support
115 19/32–9-day moving average
115 8/32–second pivot point support
114 28/32–18-day moving average
114 12/32–previous month’s low
110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside
just above shorter-term technical resistance
at the overnight high of 115.08.5 and then
at 115.19.0. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below support
at the overnight low of 114.26.5 and then at
114.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 115.23.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high
120 14/32–previous month’s high
119 8/32–100-day moving average
116 15/32–second pivot point resistance
116 3/32–previous day’s high
115 24/32–first pivot point resistance
115 12/32–previous month’s low
115 11/32–pivot point
115 –previous day’s close
115 –4-day moving average
114 31/32–previous day’s low
114 27/32–9-day moving average
114 21/32–18-day moving average
114 20/32–first pivot point support
114 7/32–second pivot point support
109 –lifetime low
CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly
higher in early trading today. Trading has
turned choppy, but bears have the near-term
technical edge. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 81.30 and
then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 80.71 and then at
80.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The September Euro is slightly higher in
early electronic trading. Trading has turned
choppy. Euro finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below technical support
at Wednesday’s low of 1.3884 and then at
1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at 1.4000 and then at
1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro
are still bullish early today. Today’s key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.4063. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on a
corrective bounce from recent losses. Prices
are still trending lower from the June high.
For August gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$940.00 and then at $950.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell
stops likely reside just below support at
the overnight low of $930.30 and then at
Wednesday’s low of $922.80. Today’s key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In August crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $70.00 and then just above
resistance at $71.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $69.00 and
then more sell stops just below support at
the overnight low of $68.11. Today’s key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $69.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were steady to weaker in overnight
trading. Grain bulls are still fading.
Traders will examine this morning’s weekly
USDA export sales data. The grains continue
to look to the outside markets for
direction. The outside markets are mixed for
grains early today as the U.S. stock indexes
are near steady, crude oil prices are firmer
and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Weather in
the Corn Belt at present is still deemed
bearish for corn and soybeans. But
temperatures in the Corn Belt are heating up
heading into July. Remember that the first
trading day after the Fourth of July holiday
weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a
very critical trading day in the grains.