TraderBlog

Friday, October 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

(NOTE: Today my friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen is
doing my morning report. Ken is a farmer and I produce his reports
for several days when he is planting and harvesting. Ken covers for
me a few days each year. Ken's report is a bit different than mine,
but I think you'll find it also to be informative.--Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1303.53. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1499.00 are needed to
confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this fall's
decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2002-2007-rally crossing at 979.90
is the next downside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 34.00 pts. at
1311.00 as of 5:51 AM CST. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at
1354.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1364.25. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.53. Second support is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 1276.65. Overnight action sets the
stage for a lower opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins
later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as
it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Multiple closes above this
resistance level would signal that a larger-degree short covering rally
might be unfolding into early-November. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, it
will take closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1066.50 to
confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this fall's
decline, the March 2003 low crossing at 787.50 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 970.50. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 992.20. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 924.12. Second support is Monday's low crossing at
825.00. The December S&P 500 Index was down 15.90 pts. at 945.60 as of 5:53
AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the December
S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES

December T-bonds were higher overnight due to short covering as it
consolidates some of Thursday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI
have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing
at 112-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 116-04 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115-22.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-04. First
support is Thursday's low crossing at 113-19. Second support is October's
low crossing at 112-17.

ENERGY MARKETS

December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this fall's decline
below the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 68.84.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 73.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 75% retracement
level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 51.81 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 70.60. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.71. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 61.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level
crossing at 51.81.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it
rebounds off initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at
85.42. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 83.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly
resistance crossing at 90.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is
the overnight high crossing at 86.58. Second resistance is Tuesday's high
crossing at 88.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
83.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.00.

The December Euro was lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of this week's rally and trading below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 128.33. However, stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.938 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's
decline, monthly support marked by the 50% retracement level of the
2001-2008-rally crossing at 121.770 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.938. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.750. First support is the
overnight low crossing at 126.530. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing
at 123.260.

PRECIOUS METALS

December gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates
some of this week's rally Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 797.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, the 62%
retracement level crossing at 651.10 is the next downside target. First
resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 778.30. Second resistance is the
38% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 802.70. First
support is last Friday's low crossing at 681.00. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 651.10.

GRAINS

December corn was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this week's rally. A stronger the U.S. Dollar provided
light downside pressure to the market, which added to the bearish tone
following Thursday's disappointing export sales report. The report showed
that world demand has slowed in the face of an unfolding global economic
recession. Technically, Monday's low has the potential to mark a double
bottom on the daily chart and is in the timeframe when a seasonal low is due
to be posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 4.42 1/2 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been
posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement
level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.33. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.42 1/2. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 3.98 3/4. Second support is Monday's low
crossing at 3.64.

December wheat was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it
consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. The
low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session opens later this morning. Multiple closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 5.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the
May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target.

November soybeans were lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 9.07 1/2. Stochastics are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the
reaction high crossing at 9.90 are needed confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If November renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement of
the 2006-2008-rally crossing at 7.24 3/4 is the next downside target. First
resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 9.64. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 9.90. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.07 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 9.00 3/4.

Friday, October 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

(NOTE: Today my friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen is
doing my morning report. Ken is a farmer and I produce his reports
for several days when he is planting and harvesting. Ken covers for
me a few days each year. Ken's report is a bit different than mine,
but I think you'll find it also to be informative.--Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1303.53. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1499.00 are needed to
confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this fall's
decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2002-2007-rally crossing at 979.90
is the next downside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 34.00 pts. at
1311.00 as of 5:51 AM CST. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at
1354.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1364.25. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.53. Second support is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 1276.65. Overnight action sets the
stage for a lower opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins
later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as
it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Multiple closes above this
resistance level would signal that a larger-degree short covering rally
might be unfolding into early-November. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, it
will take closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1066.50 to
confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this fall's
decline, the March 2003 low crossing at 787.50 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 970.50. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 992.20. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 924.12. Second support is Monday's low crossing at
825.00. The December S&P 500 Index was down 15.90 pts. at 945.60 as of 5:53
AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the December
S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES

December T-bonds were higher overnight due to short covering as it
consolidates some of Thursday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI
have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing
at 112-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 116-04 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115-22.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-04. First
support is Thursday's low crossing at 113-19. Second support is October's
low crossing at 112-17.

ENERGY MARKETS

December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this fall's decline
below the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 68.84.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a
short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 73.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 75% retracement
level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 51.81 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 70.60. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.71. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 61.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level
crossing at 51.81.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it
rebounds off initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at
85.42. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 83.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly
resistance crossing at 90.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is
the overnight high crossing at 86.58. Second resistance is Tuesday's high
crossing at 88.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
83.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.00.

The December Euro was lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of this week's rally and trading below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 128.33. However, stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.938 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's
decline, monthly support marked by the 50% retracement level of the
2001-2008-rally crossing at 121.770 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.938. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.750. First support is the
overnight low crossing at 126.530. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing
at 123.260.

PRECIOUS METALS

December gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates
some of this week's rally Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 797.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, the 62%
retracement level crossing at 651.10 is the next downside target. First
resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 778.30. Second resistance is the
38% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 802.70. First
support is last Friday's low crossing at 681.00. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 651.10.

GRAINS

December corn was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this week's rally. A stronger the U.S. Dollar provided
light downside pressure to the market, which added to the bearish tone
following Thursday's disappointing export sales report. The report showed
that world demand has slowed in the face of an unfolding global economic
recession. Technically, Monday's low has the potential to mark a double
bottom on the daily chart and is in the timeframe when a seasonal low is due
to be posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 4.42 1/2 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been
posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement
level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.33. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.42 1/2. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 3.98 3/4. Second support is Monday's low
crossing at 3.64.

December wheat was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it
consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. The
low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session opens later this morning. Multiple closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 5.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the
May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target.

November soybeans were lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 9.07 1/2. Stochastics are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the
reaction high crossing at 9.90 are needed confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If November renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement of
the 2006-2008-rally crossing at 7.24 3/4 is the next downside target. First
resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 9.64. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 9.90. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.07 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 9.00 3/4.

Thursday, October 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

(NOTE: I am out of the office Friday. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my morning report Friday. His format will be different than mine, but I think you'll enjoy and benefit from his insight.--Jim)

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The big decline in the value of the dollar the past two days is still just so far profit-taking pressure during a bull market run for the greenback. However, continued sharp downside pressure on the dollar to end this week, including a close at or near the weekly low close on Friday in the U.S. dollar index, would begin to spook the bulls and begin to hint that a near-term market top is in place in the dollar index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning trading today. Trading has turned choppy. The bears do still have the near-term technical advantage. However, closes in the indexes at or near the weekly high closes on Friday would be one bullish technical clue that market bottoms may be in place.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 928.80 and then at 914.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 970.50 and then at 990.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 947.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 937.35
1st Support:-------- 904.20
2nd Support:-------- 881.35
1st Resistance:----- 960.20
2nd Resistance:----- 993.35

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,294.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,272.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,353.00 and then at 1,373.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,319.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,304.70
1st Support:------ 1,261.35
2nd Support:------ 1,228.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,337.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,380.70

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,200 and then just above resistance at 9,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,114

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,013
1st Support:------ 8,681
2nd Support:------ 8,508
1st Resistance:--- 9,186
2nd Resistance:--- 9,518

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker early today. Bears have regained the near-term technical advantage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 16/32 and then at 114 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 even and then at the overnight high of 115 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 11/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 115 28/32
1st Support:----- 114 20/32
2nd Support:----- 113 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 27/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 3/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 114.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.18.0 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.19.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 114 13/32
1st Support:----- 113 22/32
2nd Support:----- 113 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 even
2nd Resistance:-- 115 23/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again in early trading today, on more profit taking. No serious chart damage has occurred, but bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 85.00 and then at the overnight high of 85.26. Shorter-term support is seen at 84.00 and then at the overnight low of 83.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 83.71. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, on more short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3000 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2922. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3100 and then at 1.3200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3280. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on more short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $778.30 and then at $788.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $755.40 and then at $750.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $779.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today on more short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $70.60 and then just above resistance at 72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.69 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices near steady in overnight trading. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe. Weekly high closes in corn and beans this week would give the bulls better confidence that harvest lows are in place and that prices can work higher into the end of the year. Wheat bulls also gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum on Wednesday.

Wednesday, October 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are sharply higher crude oil prices and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The big decline in the value of the dollar today is just so far profit-taking pressure in a still-solid uptrend in the greenback. Same thing with crude oil: Today's big gains are so far just short covering in a bear market and the solid price downtrend on the daily chart is still in place for crude oil.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are modestly lower in early morning trading today, following big gains Tuesday. The bears do still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 914.50 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 939.80 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 947.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 903.25
1st Support:-------- 863.50
2nd Support:-------- 788.25
1st Resistance:----- 978.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,018.25

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,274.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,250.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,310.00 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,319.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,257.35
1st Support:------ 1,204.70
2nd Support:------ 1,101.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,360.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,413.35

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,200 and then just above resistance at 9,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,114

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,781
1st Support:------ 8,463
2nd Support:------ 7,836
1st Resistance:--- 9,408
2nd Resistance:--- 9,726

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are mixed early today. Bulls are fading again.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 31/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 7/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 116 21/32
1st Support:----- 115 2/32
2nd Support:----- 114 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 1/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.25.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.19.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 114 19/32
1st Support:----- 113 23/32
2nd Support:----- 113 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 30/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today, on profit taking. No chart damage has occurred. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.50 and then at the overnight high of 87.11. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.00 and then at 85.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.02. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, on short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2700 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2615. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.3000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2777. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $759.30 and then at $765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $739.80 and then at the overnight low of $736.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $727.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today on short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $66.71 and then just above resistance at 67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.65 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering and bargain-hunting buying. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe. Weekly high closes in corn and beans this week would give the bulls better confidence that harvest lows are in place and that prices can work higher into the end of the year.

Tuesday, October 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features again in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and sharply higher grain futures prices.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

My bias is that corn and soybean futures prices have put in harvest lows and will now work sideways to higher into the end of the year. My bias is also that there is still a bit more downside left in wheat and in gold and in crude oil. However, any declines in those three markets probably won't be as extreme as they have been in recent weeks.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today. However, the bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 850.00 and then at 838.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 878.70 and then at Monday's high of 893.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 890.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 850.90
1st Support:-------- 808.80
2nd Support:-------- 782.90
1st Resistance:----- 876.80
2nd Resistance:----- 918.90

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,175.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1,154.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1,230.00 and then at 1,250.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,223.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,176.70
1st Support:------ 1,123.35
2nd Support:------ 1,084.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,215.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,268.70

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,200 and then more stops just below support at 8,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then just above resistance at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,447

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,199
1st Support:------ 7,827
2nd Support:------ 7,644
1st Resistance:--- 8,382
2nd Resistance:--- 8,754

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures lower early today, amid the stock market rebound overnight. Bulls are fading again.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 even and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 even and then at the overnight high of 117 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 5/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 117 18/32
1st Support:----- 116 9/32
2nd Support:----- 115 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 17/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.24.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.19.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 115 5/32
1st Support:----- 114 11/32
2nd Support:----- 113 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 12/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today and did poke to another fresh contract high overnight. Bulls are still strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at the overnight contract high of 88.49. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.43 and then at 87.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 87.04. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2500 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2600 and then at Monday's high of 1.2680. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2777. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $756.10 and then at $765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $739.80 and then at the overnight low of $724.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $727.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today on short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at 66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on short covering and bargain-hunting buying. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe.

Monday, October 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features again in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices and a stronger U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Price trends in the currency futures tend to be generally stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. This fact has been reinforced in recent weeks. Would-be top pickers in the greenback and bottom pickers in the other major currencies need to beware. It's generally not good trading judgement to catch a falling knife or stand in front of a freight train and try to pick bottoms or tops in markets. Better is to wait for a market to show a solid technical clue its price trend is reversing.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower in early morning trading as the bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage, amid no clues that market bottoms are close at hand.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight contract low of 825.00 and then at 800.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 865.00 and then at the overnight high of 885.10. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 2.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 890.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 872.50
1st Support:-------- 828.50
2nd Support:-------- 791.00
1st Resistance:----- 910.00
2nd Resistance:----- 954.00

December Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a fresh contract low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight contract low of 1,138.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,100.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,200.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,214.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 2.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,223.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,201.50
1st Support:------ 1,150.00
2nd Support:------ 1,108.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,243.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,294.50

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,000 and then more stops just below support at 7,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then just above resistance at 8,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 2.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,447

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,297
1st Support:------ 8,039
2nd Support:------ 7,817
1st Resistance:--- 8,519
2nd Resistance:--- 8,777

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today, amid the stock market declines overnight. Bulls have regained upside near-term technical momentum.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 16/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 118 even and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 5/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 117 29/32
1st Support:----- 115 28/32
2nd Support:----- 114 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 even

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.30.0 and then at last week's high of 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.16.0 and then at the overnight low of 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 115 16/32
1st Support:----- 114 16/32
2nd Support:----- 113 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 4/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today and hit another fresh contract and two-year high overnight. Bulls are still very strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight and the contract high of 88.31 and then at 88.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 87.50 and then at 87.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 87.04. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0

The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2327 and then just below support at 1.2250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2500 and then at 1.2550. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2777. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $739.80 and then at $750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $707.00 and then at $700.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $717.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a fresh 22-month low overnight. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $63.00 and then just above resistance at 64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $60.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid bearish "outside markets--a stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices. Grain market bears still have the near-term technical advantage amid worldwide economic recession fears. I still believe corn is at or close the point where prices will be viewed as a bargain buy. That's not yet the case with beans and wheat, and especially wheat, in my opinion.

Friday, October 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is at or near limit down U.S. stock index futures prices and a sharply stronger U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The commodity markets are poised to take another big downside hit today, amid the financial market crisis and stock market meltdown overnight. However, there are a few commodity market prices that have dropped too far, in my opinion. Remember that commodity market traders generally overdo prices on the upside and overdo them on the downside. At some point soon there are likely to be some good bargains for commodity market bulls.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower to limit down in early morning trading as the bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the contract low of 838.50 and then at 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 875.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 1.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 897.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 898.40
1st Support:-------- 873.30
2nd Support:-------- 831.40
1st Resistance:----- 940.30
2nd Resistance:----- 965.40

December Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a fresh contract low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,125.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,190.00 and then at 1,225.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,250.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,231.20
1st Support:------ 1,197.35
2nd Support:------ 1,141.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,287.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,321.20

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at 8,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then just above resistance at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,447

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,590
1st Support:------ 8,400
2nd Support:------ 8,027
1st Resistance:--- 8,963
2nd Resistance:--- 9,153

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly higher early today, amid the stock market meltdown. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum and are looking for more on the upside in the near term.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 even and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 29/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 16/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 117 7/32
1st Support:----- 116 7/32
2nd Support:----- 114 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 21/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.16.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.00.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 115 12/32
1st Support:----- 114 25/32
2nd Support:----- 114 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 21/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in early trading today and hit a fresh contract and two-year high overnight. Bulls are still very strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight and the contract high of 87.58 and then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.50 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 9.0

The December Euro is sharply lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2479 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at 1.2800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2878. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0

GOLD

Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today and hit another fresh 14-month low overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $715.00 and then at the overnight high of $729.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $681.00 and then at $675.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $733.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today and hit a fresh 15-month low overnight. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at 66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $61.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $68.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading, amid very bearish "outside markets--a sharply stronger U.S. dollar and solidly lower crude oil prices. Grain market bears still have the near-term technical advantage amid worldwide economic recession fears. However, I do believe corn is at or close the point where prices will be viewed as a bargain buy. That's not yet the case with beans and wheat, in my opinion.

Thursday, October 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock index futures prices, solidly lower gold prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold has been hammered lower this week and hit a fresh 14-month low overnight. Prices are now poised to push below major psychological support at $700.00 an ounce. The recent plunge in gold prices is an ominous warning to other commodity market bulls. Commodity price deflation is at work in the world's major economies.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading as the bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 872.50.00 and then at 865.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 923.00 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 953.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 914.80
1st Support:-------- 860.50
2nd Support:-------- 818.20
1st Resistance:----- 957.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,011.40

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,209.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the contract low of 1,190.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,263.25 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,308.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,259.35
1st Support:------ 1,197.70
2nd Support:------ 1,147.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,309.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,371.35

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then just above resistance at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,658

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,561
1st Support:------ 8,296
2nd Support:------ 8,036
1st Resistance:--- 8,821
2nd Resistance:--- 9,086

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum as near-term lows are likely in place.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 24/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 116 17/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 8/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 115 28/32
1st Support:----- 115 8/32
2nd Support:----- 114 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 19/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.18.0 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 114.22.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.17.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 114 29/32
1st Support:----- 114 16/32
2nd Support:----- 113 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 2/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bulls are still very strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight and the contract high of 86.38 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at 85.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2717 and then just below support at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2800 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3019. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh 14-month low overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $720.00 and then at the overnight high of $735.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $704.00 and then at $700.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $745.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today on tepid short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.50 and then just above resistance at 70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday's low of $66.20 and then more sell stops just below support at $65.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $70.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading, amid mixed "outside markets"--a firmer U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil prices. Grain market bears still have the near-term technical advantage amid worldwide economic recession fears.

Wednesday, October 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower U.S. stock index futures prices, solidly lower crude oil prices and a sharply higher U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Overnight price action in the markets suggests the anxiety level among traders has increased again--after a few days of slightly less market uncertainty. Poor corporate earnings reports are starting to come in. Today traders are apparently focusing on the fact that the major world economies are sickly and that there is no quick-cure tonic for the economic ills. Crude oil continues to be a barometer of the world's economic health--and prices dipped below $70.00 a barrel overnight.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading as the bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 915.00 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 969.10 and then at Tuesday's high of 992.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 953.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 967.70
1st Support:-------- 943.20
2nd Support:-------- 927.00
1st Resistance:----- 983.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,008.40

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,225.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,300.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,321.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,308.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,311.10
1st Support:------ 1,261.40
2nd Support:------ 1,230.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,342.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,391.85

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,750 and then more stops just below support at 8,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,900 and then just above resistance at 9,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,879

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,094
1st Support:------ 8,929
2nd Support:------ 8,822
1st Resistance:--- 9,201
2nd Resistance:--- 9,366

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today. Bulls are regaining fresh upside near-term technical momentum.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 23/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 8/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 114 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 30/32
2nd Support:----- 112 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 even
2nd Resistance:-- 116 27/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.25.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.06.0 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.17.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 114 even
1st Support:----- 113 14/32
2nd Support:----- 112 16/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 16/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in early trading today and hit another fresh contract high and two-year high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight contract high of 86.38 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at 85.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0

The December Euro is sharply lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2725 and then just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.3000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3019. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $766.40 and then at $775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $748.00 and then at the September low of $739.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $777.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today and hit a fresh 13-month low overnight. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at 71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.90 and then more sell stops just below support at $68.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.73. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were sharply lower in overnight trading, amid very bearish "outside markets"--a sharply stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices. With more fear back in the marketplace today, grains will likely feel strong selling pressure amid margin-call selling and general long liquidation.

Tuesday, October 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices, lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

My bias is that crude oil futures prices will touch $60.00 a barrel, or below, in the coming weeks. The price trend in crude remains solidly down amid weakening world economies.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading as the bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: A bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 950.00 and then at Monday's low of 926.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 992.20 and then at 1,000.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 953.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------- 969.65
1st Support:-------- 946.80
2nd Support:-------- 903.15
1st Resistance:----1,013.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,036.15

December Nasdaq Index: A bearish descending triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,320.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,300.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,360.75 and then at 1,373.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,309.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,338.70
1st Support:------ 1,312.35
2nd Support:------ 1,264.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,386.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,412.70

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,100 and then more stops just below support at 9,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,300 and then just above resistance at 9,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,104

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,616
1st Support:------ 9,021
2nd Support:------ 8,726
1st Resistance:--- 9,466
2nd Resistance:--- 9,617

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 17/32 and then at 113 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 1/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 2/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 113 14/32
1st Support:----- 113 even
2nd Support:----- 112 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 22/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 113.24.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.01.0 and then at 112.12.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.03.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 112 23/32
1st Support:----- 112 5/32
2nd Support:----- 111 even
1st Resistance:-- 113 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 14/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and hit a fresh contract high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight contract high of 84.04 and then at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.33 and then at 83.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 82.73. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading and hit a fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3150 and then just below support at 1.3100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3340 and then at 1.3400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3401. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $790.00 and then at $800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at last week's low of $772.20 and then at $762.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $791.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then just above resistance at 75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $71.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $74.74. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid bearish "outside markets"--a stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices. My bias is still that corn and soybeans have or will soon put in "harvest lows." Wheat likely has some more downside pressure forthcoming.