On Demand

Trading Commentaries

Showing Posts 51 - 60 out of 91 found.

Contango, The Oil Play For Today

Contango, The Oil Play For Today

Jonathan Leff (Reuters ) wrote a detailed analysis of the current state of crude oil in the US. In the midst of all the detail is a potential bet, a bet that is almost sure. Back in the dark days of the financial collapse and the Great Recession, crude oil spiked all the way up to $147 per barrel. Much of that was speculation, but a good part of it was the fact that a major surplus developed...

Continue Reading

A Week Of Volatility In Cattle

A Week Of Volatility In Cattle

Last week, January 5th through January 9th, has been one of the most volatile ever experienced in cattle prices. Box-meat, live-cattle, and feeder-cattle futures all experienced huge moves.  The reasons behind the volatility are the packers upped the ante on cattle, and the funds came out of the futures in a big way.  Some suggest we probably are going to have to bring the futures up to meet...

Continue Reading

Watch for the Failed Breakdown in YHOO

Watch for the Failed Breakdown in YHOO

When a stock has an obvious level of support, often the smart money will use that level to "run stops." What happens is that if too many people are anchored on the same level, there will be a bunch of stops just under that support level. So when that level is hit and lost, many will get stopped out only to have the market reverse back above that level. YHOO has an obvious level of support at...

Continue Reading

Get Freaky –The Market Does This Now And Then

Get Freaky –The Market Does This Now And Then

The market is up big out of the gate, which is not surprising since yesterday it was down big. China, Alcoa, small business confidence, wages, Europe, and oil all are in the news today, and all those things are good, so what gives? China's December trade figures have beaten expectations with exports up 9.7% and ... The final numbers for the year mean exports rose 6.1% in 2014 compared with...

Continue Reading

Using Time and Price to Predict Market Reversals

Using Time and Price to Predict Market Reversals

Many traders don’t understand the importance of “time” when they are trading and focus more on “price.” It has been drilled into our heads that price is king. Don’t fight the trend and that is all they know. It does work, but combining time and price works much better. By combining “time and price,” a trader has the advantage of knowing “when” to start looking for a reversal and to then use...

Continue Reading

Long Bond Bulls – Think About Scaling Out

Long Bond Bulls – Think About Scaling Out

In mid-October on TraderPlanet, I wrote about the bullish case for Treasury futures. I'm revisiting that thesis to argue it's time for bulls to think about an exit strategy. The first thing to be aware of is the proximity of the 30-year Treasury yield to chart support at 2.452% (the weekly chart reads 24.52). This is an excellent guide since there isn't any technical resistance overhead for...

Continue Reading

More Downside To Oil Means More Upside Economically

More Downside To Oil Means More Upside Economically

Well, howdy after a nice weekend, at least for me. Maybe not so for investors and traders, as the market is opening this week on the same negative note it left us on Friday. Apparently, there is residual consternation in the market, or maybe all the technical predictions floating about are becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. No matter, the market will eventually find solid ground. In the...

Continue Reading

Kitchin Cycle Points To A 2015 Decline In Equities

Kitchin Cycle Points To A 2015 Decline In Equities

An approximate 4-year cycle, which was identified as early as the 15th century in transatlantic trade, was popularized by Joseph Kitchin in his 1923 text Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.   The 4-year cycle between lows in the Dow can be found throughout the entire history of the index. The chart below includes one inverted cycle of five years which ended at the high in 2007. The only...

Continue Reading

US DOLLAR INDEX – HIGHEST READINGS IN A DECADE

US DOLLAR INDEX – HIGHEST READINGS IN A DECADE

The US Dollar Index has been steadily and persistently rising for over 6 months.  The index has reached 92.53, a level that marked the highs of 2004 and 2005. With the index at this level, be alert for signs of resistance.  At this time however, there has been no indication that the rally is losing steam.  If the index pulls back, the nearby levels of support are 89.71 and 87.80.  Remaining...

Continue Reading

The USD Index – A Speculative Bull Trap?

The USD Index – A Speculative Bull Trap?

This week, the U.S. Dollar Index has provided us with the official sell signal we’ve been waiting for.  Therefore, this week’s piece is simply an update to last week’s article, “The USD Index – A Small Washout Coming?” Based on the internal action of last week’s market, I think a “small washout” may be understating things. Commercial traders were heavy sellers in the US Dollar Index last...

Continue Reading
    2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10    
Membership is Free. Join Now in less than 5 seconds! Alternatively Join or Sign In here.