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Showing Posts 51 - 60 out of 170 found.

Go Back Just A Bit to Get Real

In these days of market panic (and I say that with a smile), all one has to do to get a grip, if one needs to get a grip, is think back to the fall of 2010, no wait, not that far. Try 2011. Sorry, that too is a bit far for me even if it is applicable. How about 2012, then, Dang, let’s just take a look at 2013. On September 10th, the Dow stood at 1466. It had had a good year up to then,...

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Earnings Play: Trade Intel From The Long Side

Earnings Play: Trade Intel From The Long Side

Intel Corporation (INTC) is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday.  Consensus analyst forecast $14.45 billion of revenue with an EPS of $0.65 (last quarter’s EPS beat by nearly 6%, with the stock rallying over 9%).  Market Recap Indeed, shares have been seemingly unstoppable in 2014, having rallied 22% year to date.  The stock has traded in a 52-week range of...

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Is The US Stock Market Going To Crash?

Is The US Stock Market Going To Crash?

We have seen the U.S. stock market take a serious hit since I published the “Dow Could Drop 1000 Points” on September 23. It really was a perfect storm, as sentiment was at extremes and there weren’t many bears alive. The bearish rising wedge was the pattern that gave me “the tell” about the potential drop and it is playing out as scripted. Now many are coming out and switching sides and...

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Treasury Futures: Buy High, Sell Higher

Treasury Futures: Buy High, Sell Higher

To give credit where it's due, "buy high and sell higher" is a concept from William O'Neill highlighting how new highs in a market often point to high confidence and thus act as a reason to buy rather than turn tail in fear. His books are great reading for dilettante and veteran trader alike. As I looked across the markets last night and concluded it's a good time not to draw any big...

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Shift Toward Safety Continues

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 22 months on 10/13/14. Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 19 months on 10/13/14. Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on...

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Grain Market Bears in Firm Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 12 3/4 cents at $3.46 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering and on harvest delays in the U.S. Corn Belt. Short covering and bargain hunting were also featured. While corn bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are making some headway and regained some upside momentum today. But make no...

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More Weak Economic Data from European Union Tuesday

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS In overnight news, there were more dour economic reports coming out of the European Union and its leading economy, Germany. EU industrial output dropped by 1.8% in August, month-on-month, and fell by 1.9% year-on-year. Those figures were worse than market expectations. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell to minus 3.6 in October, versus expectations of a...

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Just One More Thing …

The VIX has topped the 21.5 ceiling, and it did it rather quickly. Currently, it is just above 22, as it tracks the major indices on yet another down day. Clearly, the market is not listening to my argument about the economic fundamentals not warranting such a precipitous drop in the major indices. Well, there is not much I can do about that, other than to keep arguing the economic...

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December Euro Currency Futures: Trading Idea October 13, 2014

December Euro Currency Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December Euro currency that prices remain in a solid downtrend and the bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A move below chart support at 1.2600 would become another selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.2200, or below. Technical resistance, for...

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Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

The recent sell off in the cocoa futures market has created a classic Commitment of Traders buy signal. Big Picture Outlook Furthermore, this trade is a textbook description of commercial trader behavior and the tools we use in their analysis. Jumping right in, the cocoa market is near its highest levels since early 2011. Obviously, this puts us above any long-term averages and well above...

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