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Showing Posts 51 - 60 out of 99 found.

Market Tells Are More Useful than Predictions or Comments

Market Tells Are More Useful than Predictions or Comments

There was a slew of talk and predictions over the last few days that were to serve warning over equity market players, but what transpired as another up week with another very strong day on a Friday, the second consecutive big gain to end a week.  On Thursday we heard some 'off the cuff' comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, her thought that equity valuations were 'quite high', yet we know...

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Lindsay: Forecasting: The End of the Bull Market

Lindsay: Forecasting: The End of the Bull Market

The first step in forecasting an important high is accomplished using Lindsay’s 15yr interval. It isolates an eleven month period in which the high is found. Lindsay wrote that the interval (15yr-15yr, 11m) can be counted from any “important” low leaving the identification of the low somewhat ambiguous. In my own attempt to derive a more structured approach to identifying “important” lows I...

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Don’t Blink – The Tide Is Rolling In Fast

Don’t Blink – The Tide Is Rolling In Fast

The tide is changing. The fear of the Fed raising rates is no longer causing the market to panic sell. The market seems to have accepted that higher rates are coming, and when they do, the world will not fall apart. It is, as some say, now “baked into the cake.”  All you have to do is look at market reaction when the monthly US employment report came out on Friday to see that the fear is...

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Banging Around for the Options

Banging Around for the Options

Yesterday: The S&P500 mini-futures (ES) bounced a little on Thursday, enough to recover some of the ground lost in Wednesday's sell-off, but not enough to calm the jittery Bulls. The futures closed at 2084.25, or 10 points above the previous day's close, on moderate volume. The ES dropped dramatically overnight but found support after the market opened, and marched steadily up into the...

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NQ: Bounce Target Attained

NQ: Bounce Target Attained

Over the last week or so the Nasdaq futures have been busy filling gaps. The largest was at 4349 and that one was filled on Wednesday. I remarked in yesterday’s note that a retest of the Lower Value Area at 4334 was still possible and it did indeed happen in the overnight session. On Thursday, however, the market acted normally, bouncing as expected to the Volume Profile Point of Control at...

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Jobs Number Forecast

Jobs Number Forecast

Today is a big jobs report, and once again the spotlight will be on wages and growth.  Further, what metrics will the Fed be considering and will they be enough to start triggering inflation?  After the very weak jobs number in March (remember Good Friday's release, when the futures dropped 1% as the markets were closed?) I suspect we could be in for more of the same. However, we should be...

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Old Markets Fade And New Markets Form

Old Markets Fade And New Markets Form

The iconic thinker from the 1960s, Marshall McLuhan, is known for his commentary on media, particularly television (“The medium is the message.”), but he also said something else quite profound, especially when placed in a market context – There are not two sides to a story; there are forty, at least (I paraphrase.). This is and has been a major focus in this writing space – when it comes to...

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Crude Boosts Canadian Dollar

Crude Boosts Canadian Dollar

In recent weeks we have seen crude oil rebound from the lows in the first quarter. On Wednesday crude posted its high for the year at 62.58, a level it hasn’t seen since December. The recent move up has many wondering if the bottom was put in March, when it broke 43.00.  The recent climb in crude also comes ahead of driving season, which also has many observers speculating how much higher it...

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Withdrawal Pains

Withdrawal Pains

Yesterday On Wednesday the &P500 mini futures (ES) closed just below 2074.25, about 10 points below the previous day's close and a full 40 points below the high made on Monday. That was the good news. The bad news is that it made a low for the day at 2061.25 – a break below the lower boundary of  the ascending triangle pattern the market has been in for several weeks. The volume was the...

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Gap Hunt Complete

Gap Hunt Complete

Over the last week or so the Nasdaq futures have been busy filling gaps. This is a type of technical housekeeping that organizes corrections and gives them clear targets. Up-gaps represent irrational exuberance and that emotion is always tested/corrected. Down-gaps represent panic and that emotion is likewise almost always re-evaluated in the cold light of another day. As noted on Monday,...

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