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Showing Posts 61 - 70 out of 177 found.

Treasury Futures: Buy High, Sell Higher

Treasury Futures: Buy High, Sell Higher

To give credit where it's due, "buy high and sell higher" is a concept from William O'Neill highlighting how new highs in a market often point to high confidence and thus act as a reason to buy rather than turn tail in fear. His books are great reading for dilettante and veteran trader alike. As I looked across the markets last night and concluded it's a good time not to draw any big...

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Shift Toward Safety Continues

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 22 months on 10/13/14. Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 19 months on 10/13/14. Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on...

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Grain Market Bears in Firm Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 12 3/4 cents at $3.46 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering and on harvest delays in the U.S. Corn Belt. Short covering and bargain hunting were also featured. While corn bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are making some headway and regained some upside momentum today. But make no...

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More Weak Economic Data from European Union Tuesday

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS In overnight news, there were more dour economic reports coming out of the European Union and its leading economy, Germany. EU industrial output dropped by 1.8% in August, month-on-month, and fell by 1.9% year-on-year. Those figures were worse than market expectations. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell to minus 3.6 in October, versus expectations of a...

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Just One More Thing …

The VIX has topped the 21.5 ceiling, and it did it rather quickly. Currently, it is just above 22, as it tracks the major indices on yet another down day. Clearly, the market is not listening to my argument about the economic fundamentals not warranting such a precipitous drop in the major indices. Well, there is not much I can do about that, other than to keep arguing the economic...

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December Euro Currency Futures: Trading Idea October 13, 2014

December Euro Currency Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December Euro currency that prices remain in a solid downtrend and the bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A move below chart support at 1.2600 would become another selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.2200, or below. Technical resistance, for...

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Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

The recent sell off in the cocoa futures market has created a classic Commitment of Traders buy signal. Big Picture Outlook Furthermore, this trade is a textbook description of commercial trader behavior and the tools we use in their analysis. Jumping right in, the cocoa market is near its highest levels since early 2011. Obviously, this puts us above any long-term averages and well above...

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Oil Outlook: A Crude Decline

Oil Outlook: A Crude Decline

After spending the month of September oscillating between $90 per barrel and $95 per barrel, crude has resumed its downward trend.Looking at the monthly chart of front-month futures data, you can see that price has broken lower from the triangle pattern formed over the last three years.  The current prices in the low/mid $80’s are the lowest of this year on a front-month basis. The bias...

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Stocks: Rising Volume Confirms The Downtrend

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,906.13, down 1.15%) remains in a downtrend. On Friday, SPX fell below its closing price lows of the previous 4 months and fell further below its declining 50-day SMA, now at 1,972.27. NYSE total volume rose 6% to a level 41% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may...

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Stocks: 24-Day Trading Cycle Seen

Stocks: 24-Day Trading Cycle Seen

A short-term trading cycle averaging 24 trading (not calendar) days has been identified. The 10/1/14 break of the cycle low on 9/12/14 confirmed the short-term change in trend from up to down. A perfect cycle low of 24 days targets the next low for this Thursday, 10/16/14. As the chart shows, this cycle varies anywhere from 16 days to 28 days. If the cycle is “long” and extends to 28 days...

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