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Commercial Gold Traders Should Push Market Higher

Commercial Gold Traders Should Push Market Higher

The gold market has traded sideways to lower in a $200 range since mid-2013. Typically, one would think there’s little opportunity for money to be made in a market with this type of meandering, non-trending action. However, this is exactly the type of market that commercial traders love. As value players, gold producers hedge their forward production in the futures markets when prices rise....

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E-Mini: Banging on the Ceiling Again

E-Mini: Banging on the Ceiling Again

Last week The S&P500 cash index, the index of large-cap US equities, closed at 2116.10 on Friday, a small net loss in a week that was marked by wide price swings. The market has been careening from the top to the bottom of a fairly narrow range for most of this year; the SPX last week conformed to that pattern. The index has made a series of short-term whipsaws inside the 2040 to 2125...

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NQ: More Gaps to Fill

NQ: More Gaps to Fill

The target for the NQ futures on Friday was 4467 and they reached 4462 on a sudden jobs report rally. The irrationally exuberant surge was most likely a short covering rally, due to excess pessimism last week. Just as it doesn’t pay to get bearish during corrections, it doesn’t make sense to get bullish on strong rallies. With that in mind, this market is probably still in gap fill mode....

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Market Tells Are More Useful than Predictions or Comments

Market Tells Are More Useful than Predictions or Comments

There was a slew of talk and predictions over the last few days that were to serve warning over equity market players, but what transpired as another up week with another very strong day on a Friday, the second consecutive big gain to end a week.  On Thursday we heard some 'off the cuff' comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, her thought that equity valuations were 'quite high', yet we know...

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Lindsay: Forecasting: The End of the Bull Market

Lindsay: Forecasting: The End of the Bull Market

The first step in forecasting an important high is accomplished using Lindsay’s 15yr interval. It isolates an eleven month period in which the high is found. Lindsay wrote that the interval (15yr-15yr, 11m) can be counted from any “important” low leaving the identification of the low somewhat ambiguous. In my own attempt to derive a more structured approach to identifying “important” lows I...

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Don’t Blink – The Tide Is Rolling In Fast

Don’t Blink – The Tide Is Rolling In Fast

The tide is changing. The fear of the Fed raising rates is no longer causing the market to panic sell. The market seems to have accepted that higher rates are coming, and when they do, the world will not fall apart. It is, as some say, now “baked into the cake.”  All you have to do is look at market reaction when the monthly US employment report came out on Friday to see that the fear is...

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Banging Around for the Options

Banging Around for the Options

Yesterday: The S&P500 mini-futures (ES) bounced a little on Thursday, enough to recover some of the ground lost in Wednesday's sell-off, but not enough to calm the jittery Bulls. The futures closed at 2084.25, or 10 points above the previous day's close, on moderate volume. The ES dropped dramatically overnight but found support after the market opened, and marched steadily up into the...

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NQ: Bounce Target Attained

NQ: Bounce Target Attained

Over the last week or so the Nasdaq futures have been busy filling gaps. The largest was at 4349 and that one was filled on Wednesday. I remarked in yesterday’s note that a retest of the Lower Value Area at 4334 was still possible and it did indeed happen in the overnight session. On Thursday, however, the market acted normally, bouncing as expected to the Volume Profile Point of Control at...

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Jobs Number Forecast

Jobs Number Forecast

Today is a big jobs report, and once again the spotlight will be on wages and growth.  Further, what metrics will the Fed be considering and will they be enough to start triggering inflation?  After the very weak jobs number in March (remember Good Friday's release, when the futures dropped 1% as the markets were closed?) I suspect we could be in for more of the same. However, we should be...

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Old Markets Fade And New Markets Form

Old Markets Fade And New Markets Form

The iconic thinker from the 1960s, Marshall McLuhan, is known for his commentary on media, particularly television (“The medium is the message.”), but he also said something else quite profound, especially when placed in a market context – There are not two sides to a story; there are forty, at least (I paraphrase.). This is and has been a major focus in this writing space – when it comes to...

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