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Showing Posts 61 - 70 out of 86 found.

We Are Now Suspicious Of The SPX

We Are Now Suspicious Of The SPX

For at least two years, we have been long-term Bulls on the S&P500 large cap index (SPX). Sure, we take short-term positions with the Bears. We are traders, and we don't fall in love with either side, but when it comes to the longer time horizon, we have always called for this rally to continue. That is, until now. Now, there are two items in the SPX chart that are making us question if...

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Wall of Worry is Up High in 2015

We love market skeptics, as they will take any particular piece of news and spin it negatively.  Don't get me wrong, when there is 'bad' stuff happening we must take notice of it and respond accordingly.  But, is there anyone out there who is not spooked after the first week of trading the new year?  Yes we had a couple of strong days midweek but the indices are decidedly negative. A Wall of...

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Too Big And Too Fast, And That Is All It Is

Too Big And Too Fast, And That Is All It Is

In case you did not know, the US is at war. Okay, in actuality, it is the US oil producers producing soil in the US that are at war. It is an economic war, for sure, but it is war and the “enemy” is vowing to take no prisoners. Representatives of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait stressed a dozen times in the past six weeks that the group won’t curb output to halt the biggest...

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Make Your Own Calls, Despite The Market Moves

Make Your Own Calls, Despite The Market Moves

Trading can be a fickle game.  As a trader, I reserve my right to change my mind, basically, whenever I choose because the markets (and our perceptions of the markets) can and do change on a dime.  For example, look at how my attempted play in Monster Beverage (MNST) went down earlier this week.  I had a technical signal generated​ that "triggered" at $109.90.  I identified a long call...

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The Bears Are Coming For Gold

The Bears Are Coming For Gold

For the last few years, radio and TV ads have tooted gold's horn as a safe investment and a hedge against yet another stock market crash. According to one particular commercial, this impending crash is a matter of when, not if.   While gold is often touted as a fear trade, history shows its usefulness seldom extends beyond  that of an effective hyperinflation hedge.  In a world still warding...

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Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Since the peak in June 2013, the price of a barrel of oil has dropped nearly 60% to under $50, and it seems no end is in sight.  Supply continues to exceed demand and that is within a decent economic growth pattern.  Some analysts predict growth could slow sharply in the year ahead, and that would sap demand for crude even more.  Yet, more supply comes online each day as the producers see...

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Is It The January Effect? Maybe, Maybe Not

Is It The January Effect? Maybe, Maybe Not

This is the first week of January, and there has not been much chatter about the January Effect, at least not that I can tell. It is always a topic bandied about at this time of the year. So, what exactly am I writing about? The January Effect is … The tendency of the stock market to rise between December 31 and the end of the first week in January. The January Effect occurs because many...

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Avoid The Money Trap

Avoid The Money Trap

We trade to win, and most traders define a “win” as a trade that makes money. However, most aspiring traders over-focus on the money, which, paradoxically, causes unnecessary losses. I call this vicious circle the Money Trap.   The Money Trap runs on automatic, because we are wired to react to the risk of monetary losses in a certain (problematic) way that actually makes them more likely and...

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A Bearish Play on Cooling Oil Prices

A Bearish Play on Cooling Oil Prices

The weather in Chicago lately resembles the trend in crude oil; it just keeps dropping. As we have seen crude oil drop below $50 a barrel, the temperature here has broken 0 degrees, and is down to -30 degrees with the wind-chill. I’m a big fan of one of those trends, not so much a fan of the other. There has been much debate lately on whether the lower prices in crude are good for the...

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Big Call Buying In Aaron’s Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Big Call Buying In Aaron’s Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Aaron’s (AAN) is a $2B specialty retailer that leases and sells anything from home furniture and fridges to Dell laptops and TV’s. The stock is still recovering from a disappointing year in which earnings dropped double digits and the share price is still off about 20% from the June highs. This year is setting up to be a better year, as revenues are likely to top the $3B mark and EPS are set...

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