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Showing Posts 61 - 70 out of 173 found.

Just One More Thing …

The VIX has topped the 21.5 ceiling, and it did it rather quickly. Currently, it is just above 22, as it tracks the major indices on yet another down day. Clearly, the market is not listening to my argument about the economic fundamentals not warranting such a precipitous drop in the major indices. Well, there is not much I can do about that, other than to keep arguing the economic...

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December Euro Currency Futures: Trading Idea October 13, 2014

December Euro Currency Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December Euro currency that prices remain in a solid downtrend and the bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A move below chart support at 1.2600 would become another selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.2200, or below. Technical resistance, for...

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Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

The recent sell off in the cocoa futures market has created a classic Commitment of Traders buy signal. Big Picture Outlook Furthermore, this trade is a textbook description of commercial trader behavior and the tools we use in their analysis. Jumping right in, the cocoa market is near its highest levels since early 2011. Obviously, this puts us above any long-term averages and well above...

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Oil Outlook: A Crude Decline

Oil Outlook: A Crude Decline

After spending the month of September oscillating between $90 per barrel and $95 per barrel, crude has resumed its downward trend.Looking at the monthly chart of front-month futures data, you can see that price has broken lower from the triangle pattern formed over the last three years.  The current prices in the low/mid $80’s are the lowest of this year on a front-month basis. The bias...

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Stocks: Rising Volume Confirms The Downtrend

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,906.13, down 1.15%) remains in a downtrend. On Friday, SPX fell below its closing price lows of the previous 4 months and fell further below its declining 50-day SMA, now at 1,972.27. NYSE total volume rose 6% to a level 41% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may...

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Stocks: 24-Day Trading Cycle Seen

Stocks: 24-Day Trading Cycle Seen

A short-term trading cycle averaging 24 trading (not calendar) days has been identified. The 10/1/14 break of the cycle low on 9/12/14 confirmed the short-term change in trend from up to down. A perfect cycle low of 24 days targets the next low for this Thursday, 10/16/14. As the chart shows, this cycle varies anywhere from 16 days to 28 days. If the cycle is “long” and extends to 28 days...

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U.S. Holiday Monday May Give Stock Market Bulls a Respite

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The U.S. government and U.S. Treasury markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday Monday. There are also no major U.S. economic reports due for release. That could make for a more subdued market place to start the trading week. The stock market bulls are certainly hoping for a respite Monday, following late last week’s beat-down....

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The Market is Getting Sentimental

One of the ways for us to understand the emotional state of the markets is to look at sentiment.  The spectrum of fear and greed is wide and when tallying up all the different indicators from VIX, to put/call ratio to polls and money flows we generally wind up near the middle.  At least that true in the long term, but in the short term we see anxiety, stress, worry and uncertainty in these...

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I Have Not a Clue

It is official. The market is in crazy land. There is no way out now until the selling is exhausted, and that will be when the panic to sell is exhausted. On a short term basis, this could get uglier. Wow, what a week/month it has been so far. Students of market history know that October has a reputation for increased volatility. And cutting to the chase, this October is certainly living up...

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Looking For A Strong Finish To 2014? Try Mortgage REITs

Looking For A Strong Finish To 2014? Try Mortgage REITs

We’re not getting the fourth quarter off to a very good start.   Globally, stocks have seen some of their greatest volatility since January, and emerging markets have been hit particularly hard.  Mortgage REITs—a generally sleepy corner of the market—have also taken a beating on fears that the Fed will soon raise rates, squeezing margins and crimping dividend payouts.  Rethink Your Rate...

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