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Showing Commentaries 61 - 70 out of 71 found.

What Is Money?

What Is Money?

Below is a chart over the past ten years of Corn priced in terms of Gold.  (Rolling front Corn contract divided by spot gold).  The chart shows the past ten years of history, but I looked at a longer series as well, and in terms of gold, this is the cheapest that corn has been in the past 50 years (which is as far back as I looked).  Of course, there are obvious reasons for recent weakness...

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The Dow: 5-year Cycle?

The Dow: 5-year Cycle?

My own observations of a 4 year cycle show a very consistent low in the Dow every four years. In 1962 the cycle expanded to five years and in 1978 it contracted to three years. The bull market from 2002 never provided a low that could be considered a cycle low and an important high was seen five years later in 2007. That was followed by a significant low four years later in 2011. That has...

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15 Ways Poker Is Like Trading

15 Ways Poker Is Like Trading

I’ve always enjoyed the game of poker. It’s fun (and yes mom it is gambling, I understand that.) I whole heartedly agree that investing and gambling are not the same thing at all. The reason so many have a hard time seeing the difference is because there are numerous similarities. Here are some of the most apparent:   It’s exciting It involves the potential rapid gain or rapid loss of money...

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Gaps and Volatility: Will it Be a 'V' or a 'W'?

Gaps and Volatility: Will it Be a 'V' or a 'W'?

Since the middle of June we have seen some remarkable market action.  What started out with a rather shallow dip morphed into a near-catastrophic drop following the Brexit decision toward the end of the month, leaving many to wonder if they should have followed the 'sell in May and go Away' advice from the prior month.  Volatility started to kick up mid-month as the Brexit vote came closer,...

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Stocks: Are Summer Doldrums Finally Setting In?

Stocks: Are Summer Doldrums Finally Setting In?

S&P 500: We’ve seen this movie before. And we don’t like the way it turns out.   See if this sounds familiar: an unexpected event roils the equity markets. Prices crash dramatically, perhaps as much as 100 points in the S&P in a couple of hours. Then, in the next couple of days, the market recovers and the price marches straight back up to where it was, in a V-shaped recovery on...

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The Age of Mistrust Among Traders

The Age of Mistrust Among Traders

It took long enough, didn't it?  As traders we are always looking beyond the tricks and games being played in markets, because with so many players and opportunities they cannot rig the game against every participant, right?  Yet, we have seen far less participation these days from the average investor, the retail trader and the middle class American who would like to invest in the growth of...

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Welcome To The Second Half: Trades For Crude Oil Now

Welcome To The Second Half: Trades For Crude Oil Now

Wow! How time flies. Today, Thursday June 30, 2016 marked the midway point for the trading year. What a year it has been for Crude Oil. The low for the first half of the year came in February at 26.05. The ensuing 4 month rally took us to a high 0f 51.67 in June. Crude oil almost doubled its price in 4 months! Wow! Thursday’s trade saw Crude Oil trade in a tight range from 49.11 to 48.50...

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Brexit Bounce - The Energy Report 06/30/16

Brexit Bounce - The Energy Report 06/30/16

While global stock markets rebounded on the post Brexit vote under the assumption that this will be a long drawn out process, it is clear no one has a clue how this Brexit thing is going to unfold. No one has a plan, not even the leave camp. What is clear is that it will be a long drawn out political game of charades and the markets think that this will have very little bearing on the short...

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U.S. Dollar: Following The Bull Move Higher

U.S. Dollar: Following The Bull Move Higher

After last Thursday's Brexit vote, the U.S. Dollar Index has offered some confirmation of the upward forecast we described in our June 2 post. Here we suggest some signals to watch as further confirmation of the upward trade, and we present some revised near-term targets. The index found support several weeks ago at what we have been treating as the bottom of a corrective wave (iv). It is...

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Did The Market Take You For A Wild Ride?

Did The Market Take You For A Wild Ride?

If you are market observer or participant, you aren’t going to see too many weeks like the one we just had. After the vote in the UK to leave the European Union caught many off guard, the markets started a wild ride of historic levels. The Pound dropped to 30 year lows, as it plunged almost 12% in one trading session.  Other markets had similar moves, and had some continued follow through...

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