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Showing Posts 61 - 70 out of 85 found.

The Crude-Canada Dollar Connection: Buy Loonie Call Spread

The Crude-Canada Dollar Connection: Buy Loonie Call Spread

The chart below is the front (rolling) crude oil contract overlaid on the Canadian dollar future.  Clearly correlated.  Obviously, many currencies have traded in lockstep with crude oil and other commodities as the USD has rallied.  The Canadian Dollar has not only suffered because of the oil bust in Calgary, but has likely seen declines in some of the money flows from Asia.  The question...

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Grain Alert: The State Of Wheat

Grain Alert: The State Of Wheat

Wheat export sales for last week came in at 274 thousand metric tons down 3% from the four week average.  Sales were largely low quality feed wheat to countries like the Philippines who came in for 158 thousand, Italy 130, Ecuador 27, and Cyprus 23.  There were multiple port switches, reductions, and decreases.  Clearly demand is not a driving force for wheat.  Bearish news comes from...

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7 Facts About The Facebook Chart Now

7 Facts About The Facebook Chart Now

With the markets going a tad wild and volatile, earnings season is going to be a doozy. Individual equities should be very interesting. Let’s talk about FB. Here are 7 Facts regarding the charts. #1 FB bounced off of the 200 simple moving average on the daily chart. #2 The low of FB on 1/14/16 was 92.45. The 200 SMA is 92.50 #3 On 11/05/15 FB formed nearly a perfect doji at an all-time high....

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Fed Policy is Hawkish (No Foolin')

Fed Policy is Hawkish (No Foolin')

We have come to the point where Fed policy is really in a corner, and the only real way out is to distribute some pain to the markets.  That has certainly been the message so far in 2016, but was certainly telegraphed over the past year or so, too.  The Fed seems quite confident about the prospects for economic growth and the potential for rising inflation, enough they felt comfortable...

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Here's How To Profit On Global Oil Collapse

Here's How To Profit On Global Oil Collapse

Over the weekend it was widely reported Iran would steeply ramp up production now that US sanctions on the export of crude oil have been lifted.  Some analysts are calling for crude to fall as low as $18 as a result of Iranian export.  Over the weekend Reuters quoted sources as saying South American (physical) cargoes are below $13 barrel.    No doubt, $10 crude could spark a global...

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Netflix: Ready To Bounce

Netflix: Ready To Bounce

Netflix represents the “N” in the “FANG” gang, a group of former market leaders that has been leading to the downside in the New Year. Of the ‘Gang of Four,’ only Netflix has a significant level of short interest: 13.5%, which is very high for a market darling. In comparison, only 1.5% of Amazon’s float is short. This means that in a FANG Gang rally, which I expect to happen this week, NFLX...

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Apple’s Date with Destiny

Apple’s Date with Destiny

A week ago I noted that Apple’s recent lack of relative strength is a bearish ‘tell’ on the market. The reason is that the stock is not over-valued and sports a decent dividend. Nevertheless, shares are down 25% from the May 2015 high and recently broke the $100 mark. This is a market in which ‘quality’ does not matter. Presumably, Apple stock was being sold to buy the FANG gang during the...

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SPX: Oh No! They’re trying to do it again

SPX: Oh No! They’re trying to do it again

OMG! Just when you thought the market was finally starting t make sense – unpleasant for some, but rational for a change – along comes the Federal Reserve to try a little word magic again. Yesterday the President of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, gave an interview pointing out that low oil prices are making it difficult for the central bankers to get inflation up to the 2% ‘target’ rate....

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Front Run the Market? That's a Bad Idea

Front Run the Market? That's a Bad Idea

Today's market runs as fast as it ever has, and not surprisingly that speed comes from the hyper high frequency traders and algorithmic trading programs.  Trying to catch up to a trend is nearly impossible, especially for those like me who look for a confirmation.  By the time a move is confirmed it may well be over!  Of course, using price targets, levels and objectives is useful but they...

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Wheat Market Special: Heavy Supply means Continued Opportunities for Call Sellers

Wheat Market Special: Heavy Supply means Continued Opportunities for Call Sellers

While selling options on commodities contracts may sound like an exotic and/or glamorous investment strategy, in reality it’s more show up for work and follow a formula. Call it “lunchbox” trading. The Formula is called FUDOM* and its steps are simple: Find a Market with Clear Fundamentals – Bullish or Bearish Sell Deep out of the Money options against those fundamentals Force the Market to...

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