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Showing Posts 61 - 70 out of 178 found.

Corn Rally Stalls Short of $4

Corn Rally Stalls Short of $4

The commercial-trader category in the corn market has performed exactly as expected this year. This has revealed both the strengths and weaknesses of commercial traders. Commercial traders are mean-reversion traders. They initiate positions when the markets have moved towards valuations that call them to action. Once the market moves back inside its predicted value envelope, the trade...

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Searching For Lindsay’s Right Shoulder

Searching For Lindsay’s Right Shoulder

With the October rally exceeding the September high, we find ourselves once again searching for the right shoulder high that will mark the end of the bull market. The rally from the end of the Sideways Movement on 11/25/11 terminated at the July high earlier this year when, after 964 calendar days, the Dow dropped 770 points, marking the end of the longest of Lindsay’s standard time spans....

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2015 Is Coming, Where Will The Market Go

2015 Is Coming, Where Will The Market Go

November and December are usually pretty good months for the equity markets. Thanksgiving gives the market a boost, and there is normally a “Santa Claus” rally to carry into the end of the year. But there are only 30 trading days left until 2015. What's likely to happen in the rest of 2014? Our best guess: nothing much. Back in the spring, we calculated the top for this year would come in...

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March ICE Cotton Futures: Trading Idea November 17, 2014

March ICE Cotton Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for March cotton futures that prices last Thursday hit a contract low and have also seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range at lower price levels. This suggests more downside to come. A move in prices below solid chart support at Thursday’s contract low of 58.57 cents...

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Junk Bonds and Financial Stocks are underperforming.

Junk Bond ETF (JNK) price broke down below 3-week lows on 11/14/14. Financial SPDR ETF (XLF) Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) peaked on 10/14/14 and has underperformed over the past month. When Financials underperform, it is a warning for the general market. NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/14/14 and...

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Weak Japan Economic Data Sinks World Stock Markets Monday

* Latest Market Developments * (Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff) In overnight news, Japan reported its gross domestic product declined by 1.6% in the third quarter, year-on-year, versus expectations of a 2.2% increase in growth. Thus, Japan is now in recession. This somewhat surprising news sunk Japan’s Nikkei stock index by 3% Monday, which in turn put downside pressure on most other...

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Trading the Markets, Part 1: Feeling the Pressure

There are many traders who do it for a living because they have a formula for success.  Each one has their own concoction of methods and a particular style that works for them, but I will tell you that most winning traders have a good plan but are flexible to change if needed.  Further, the most successful traders do not let outside factors influence their daily actions or routine, as they...

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The Arc of Energy is Bending Toward Alternatives

The Arc of Energy is Bending Toward Alternatives

Yes, I have said it before, but it bears repeating – one economic report does not a trend make. However, when you put that report in context with other things, well, then, maybe it is a sign of things to come. German Economy Returns to Growth as France Beats Forecasts True, we might not have a trend yet for the Eurozone, but what we do have is the possibility the tide might be changing. Put...

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Is It Time To Go Long Walmart?

Is It Time To Go Long Walmart?

Walmart (WMT) announced third quarter earnings this week and – gasp! – U.S. same-store sales actually rose for the first time in two years, by 0.5%. Walmart’s smaller neighborhood market stores enjoyed a much healthier 5% rise in same-store sales, and online sales jumped by 21%.  All told, not a bad showing. After years of disappointing news for the world’s largest retailer, this past...

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Correlated Markets Is Opportunity For Stock Picking

Correlated Markets Is Opportunity For Stock Picking

The recent action in the markets has created a distinct advantage for the stock picker.  How do I know this?  Take a look at the chart below of the implied correlation index, or the ICJ.  Simply put, this is a market-based estimate of the average correlation of stocks that comprise the SPX 500.  When the level is high (above 73%), we see a strong correlation between the market and...

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