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Showing Posts 61 - 70 out of 99 found.

US Stocks: Biotech Index (IBB) Poised For New High

US Stocks: Biotech Index (IBB) Poised For New High

In this news-driven environment, gaps are Us. We did fill the 4410-4418 gap on Friday morning, as expected, but the interesting thing about that day is that the Sunday night rally created what is likely to be a ‘breakaway gap.” This is a gap that occurs in an oversold condition and can take months or even years to fill. (See chart) As expected, the market on Friday stalled at the very...

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A Low In The Dow: A Long Hot July

A Low In The Dow: A Long Hot July

With the intra-day low on Tuesday and the closing low on Wednesday, the forecast for a low in the Dow early last week worked out well. Last week’s commentary also laid out the case for that low to be followed by a very short rally into a high (approximately) this Wednesday. Unfortunately, this week’s high is not expected to be the first in a series of higher highs as cycles warn of a...

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VIX Trends: Volatility On The Move

VIX Trends: Volatility On The Move

With so much uncertainty over recent events in Greece and China it's no wonder markets have seen a sharp rise in volatility.  As measured by the VIX, we saw volatility rise nearly 80% in just better than two weeks, vaulting from about 12% to 20% during that time.  Uncertainty creates doubt, and as long as this bull market has been in place there is not one investor/trader out there who...

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Gold Alert: Big Spec Short Position Seen

Gold Alert: Big Spec Short Position Seen

There’s been a lot of attention paid to the growing speculative short position building in the gold futures market. We’ll look into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report and some of the calculating issues that must be accounted for as well as a graphic representation of how to use both the small speculators and commercial traders to your own...

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US Stocks: Brace For A Volatile Week

US Stocks: Brace For A Volatile Week

At 2 a.m. Monday morning, European time, Finance Ministers from the Eurozone  -- Greece’s creditors -- were busy trying to hammer out a deal that would prevent a formal default on Greek debt. The proposals being leaked early Monday were much worse than the deal the Greeks voted against so decisively just a week ago. The Greek governing party has fractured over the proposals, and the Greek...

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Trading Psychology: Don't Get Trapped By News

Trading Psychology: Don't Get Trapped By News

I took a long trade in the Nasdaq futures last night about 10 minutes after the 6 pm Sunday open. The index had gapped down about 25 points on some “bad news” from Europe, but I’m a technical trader so my methodology doesn’t include an input for news, good or bad. News is a trap for many traders. We get much of our market information from media that has a need for sensationalism. That’s how...

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Trade Options, So You Can Get Out And Golf

Trade Options, So You Can Get Out And Golf

Trading options offers a lot of flexibility. You have the ability to make money in up down and even sideways markets.  Option trading also affords you the ability to not have to sit in front of your computer screen watching the markets tick for tick.  Managing your portfolio is not as straightforward as managing a portfolio of stocks though.  With a stock, it’s pretty easy.  You buy stock...

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How To Use The CBOE Skew Index

How To Use The CBOE Skew Index

The skew index was created by the CBOE after a fascination with volatile markets in the 1987 crash.  The thought was how it can capture where bets are being placed before a big market event, usually a dive.  The skew index captures tail risk, a two or more standard deviation event that is simply outlier risk.  We often see these bets being made when volatility or the VIX is quite low. ...

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US Markets: Global Safe Haven For Capital

US Markets: Global Safe Haven For Capital

As the week progressed, the Nasdaq became weaker, not stronger, and left a number of unfilled gaps in its wake. This is what happens when the European tail wags the US dog overnight. Additionally, concerns about the new bear market in China, which is likely to take the Shanghai index down more than 80% from its high, are likewise distorting the US open. The closest gap is between 4410 and...

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US Stocks: China, Greece Trigger Whipsaw Moves

US Stocks: China, Greece Trigger Whipsaw Moves

The S&P 500 mini-futures (ES) are the major trading vehicle for overseas traders who want to gain or hedge exposure to US equity indices. So the trading overnight, when overseas markets are active and US markets are closed, can often run counter to US markets. That’s what happened Wednesday night and early Thursday. The ES ran up 30 points overnight, then promptly dropped 30 points in...

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