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A Look Toward 2015 – Part II

A Look Toward 2015 – Part II

Last week, we talked about a bit about fixed income in the New Year and how I prepare for my investment thesis, which is my expectation around the Fed.  With the strong accommodation continuing, even if they decide to raise rates (to normalize policy), the equity markets are still going to be the place to be.  The early figures for 2014 appear to be the SPX is up double digits for the second...

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Protect Yourself – Be Honest

Protect Yourself – Be Honest

Reward to risk analysis is only as good as your ability to define the reward and define the risk but then to also be conservative (honest) in your parameters.  For example, stock XYZ that continues to make all-time-high after all-time-high and the trade is  an upside play using a call vertical spread.  Since it is making new highs, technical analysis gives us very little guidance, as it will...

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Look To Europe In 2015

Look To Europe In 2015

Finally, the last day of the year is here. As I wrote last week, I will not miss 2014, personally. As to the stock market, overall, it turned out to be quite a good year. Now, if the market finishes today as I think it will, then, I can say I will miss 2014 professionally. The year behaved mostly as I suggested it would when I suggested it would, and if the Dow finishes above 18,000 today,...

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Look to Strangle Gold Into The New Year

Look to Strangle Gold Into The New Year

Risk aversion among year-end buyers and short-covering boosted gold futures early this week, but the rally could be short-lived, with the stronger dollar keeping a lid on further gains. Gold futures jumped almost two percent, breaking above the key $1,200-per-ounce level, as traders used Tuesday’s weaker dollar as an excuse to buy. Worries about Greece's election outcome and tensions between...

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March Cotton Futures: Trading Idea December 31, 2014

March Cotton Futures a Buying Opportunity on Fresh Price Strength See on the daily bar chart for March ICE cotton futures that prices have worked up from the recent low and have recently seen a pause. The bulls have gained a bit of upside technical momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. A move above solid technical resistance at the December high of 62.84 cents would give the bulls...

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S&P Mid Cap 400 Has Turned Up

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/30/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 12/30/14, confirming a medium-term uptrend. Absolute price rose to an all-time high on 12/29/14....

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Markets Quiet to End the Year

* Latest Market Developments * NOTE: I am out of the office all week this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my report today. Ken’s format and style is a bit different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his work, too.—Jim The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline....

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2014 Is Giving Way To 2015, Oh Boy!

2014 Is Giving Way To 2015, Oh Boy!

After today, there is one more day of trading left in 2014. The year will probably not go out wildly, which speaks to the possibility the volatility that characterized 2014 might dissipate in 2015. That would be nice, but my guess is we will see some intense volatility as the two “big” stories of 2015 unfold – when will the Fed raise rates and by how much and will the stupid heads in...

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Unusual Activity In STX Weekly Options – Still More Room To The Upside?

Unusual Activity In STX Weekly Options – Still More Room To The Upside?

Seagate Technology (Nasdaq: STX, $67.91) has outperformed the overall tech sector in 2014, with shares having risen 20.5% year to date versus 17.8% for the sector overall.  STX shares have traded in a 52-week range of $48.21-$69.42, with 2.8 million shares changing hands each day on average.  STX hit its all-time high of $69.40 one week ago on December 23.  At least one trader has a high...

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An Early 2015 Bump in Stocks?

An Early 2015 Bump in Stocks?

On the last two days of 2014, trends that have been in place this year remain in place. U.S. equities and the dollar are rising while the euro and yen are depreciating. The downtrend in emerging equity markets (and some equity markets in the Eurozone) doesn't show any signs of ending. Although slowing momentum in the S&P 500 leaves me with a cautious (not bearish) view of 2015 for now,...

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