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Showing Posts 81 - 90 out of 164 found.

The Largest Cap Stocks Are Gaining Strength, Commodities Are Losing Strength

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 9/15/14 and is now systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows...

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Energy Bears Have the Technical Advantage

ENERGY MARKETS October crude oil posted an upside reversal on Monday as it rebounds off the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011-rally crossing at 90.62. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at...

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FOMC Meeting Gets Under Way Tuesday

NOTE: I am out of the office all week this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my report today. Ken’s format and style is a bit different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his work, too.—JimThe STOCK INDEXES The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors have moved into a risk-averse mood ahead of the Federal Open Market...

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Conflicted? Yup Conflicted

“Conflicted” is the word today. Economic data is always conflicted, as it is today. Industrial Production is slightly down, but the Empire State Manufacturing Index is way up, almost double the previous reading. Unemployment is higher than it should be, when you count the all the folks who have given up looking for a job, but …   In the first half of this year, the (nominal) hourly...

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December LIve Cattle Futures: Trading Idea September 15, 2014

Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices have backed well down from the recent contract high, including scoring a significantly bearish “key reversal” down, which is an early clue of a market top being in place. Prices also closed at a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Consider buying a put option...

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Beyond All Doubt: The Stock Market High Is In

Beyond All Doubt: The Stock Market High Is In

I have two pieces of good news this week (for bears). 1.    You will never again have to read about how the 2011 sideways movement has caused confusion over from which date to count the last basic advance in the 2009 bull market.2.    Even if the sideways movement confusion had not been resolved previously, time has taken care of the any lingering uncertainties.[Editor's note: Read Carlson's...

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What Is The VIX Saying Now?

What Is The VIX Saying Now?

The chart below is a long-term look at volatility (the VIX, red line).  The current low VIX readings are similar to the period of low VIX over the years of 2005, 2006, and into the beginning of 2007, which saw the S&P 500 index move from the 1200 level to north of 1500, a 25% gain (black line).   The picture in VIX continues to suggest that the current bull trend remains in force.The...

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S&P 500: Beware The Ides Of September

S&P 500: Beware The Ides Of September

There is a scene in Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar, where Caesar, while walking to the Senate and his eventual assassination, is warned by a soothsayer in the street: “Beware the Ides of March.” Caesar is uneasy, but ignores the warning – and is unexpectedly ambushed.It feels like something similar is happening to the stock markets. Traders are uneasy. The sharp decline in the S&P 500...

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COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

I’ve been working with the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders’ Data for many years and the most consistent results have typically been following in the commercial traders’ footpaths. This is exactly what Larry Williams refers to when he talks about, “trading with the elephants.” Trading system design comes from finding a fundamental premise about the markets and testing it going forward. I am...

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Global Markets Are Losing Strength

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 9/12/14. Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months. Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months. Absolute price fell below its lows of...

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