Recent Commentaries tagged (bonds)
Chart Presentation: Stealth
From Bloomberg yesterday, "Japan used so-called stealth intervention in November as the government sought to stem yen gains that hammered earnings at makers of exports ranging from cars to electronics." Whether 'stealth intervention' makes sense or not the reality is that Japanese Finance Ministr...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | treasuries
A Proposal for Money Market Funds II
I thought that I had a really good proposal for dealing with money market fund problems. And it is good, far better than what the SEC is proposing. My proposal is better because it treats money market funds like ETFs -- they are pass-through vehicles, and as such, do not need capital buffers. And...
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Tags: banks | bonds | public-policy
Against Risk Parity, Redux
Here are two articles to read on risk parity: Pro: Pick Your Poison Con: The Hidden Risks of Risk Parity Portfolios I'm on the "con" side of this argument, because I am a risk manager, and have traded a large portfolio of complex bonds. For additional support consider my article Risks, Not Risk. ...
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Tags: asset-allocation | banks | bonds | macroeconomics | portfolio-management | quantitative-methods | real-estate-and-mortgages | stocks | structured-products-and-derivatives | value-investing
Chart Presentation: Windmills and Gold
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks declined, following a five-week rally for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, amid concern about Europe's debt crisis as Greek leaders wrestled with spending cuts to get aid and avert a default. The beat goes on. Positive news on U.S. employment putting upward press...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | futures
2012: A repeat of ‘03 and ‘09?
In the latest writing that Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report published of mine, I argued that following the Summer Crash and Fall Melt-Up of last year, market internals seem to be suggesting the strong possibility that inflation expectations are returning to risk-assets. As followers o...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market...
Procter & Gamble Co.'s failure to raise the price of Cascade dishwashing soap shows why investors are buying Treasuries at the lowest yields in history, giving the Federal Reserve more scope to boost the economy. The world's largest consumer-products company rolled back prices after an 8 percent ...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Sorted Recent Tweets
Trying a new format here, I think readers will like it better. Most things are better after additional effort. Think of this as a news links by subject post.EconomicsIf you look in the back, it seems that there were 58 respondents. From page 13: Methodology & Panel Selection Invi... http://t.co...
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Tags: accounting | asset-allocation | banks | blog-news | bonds | fed-policy | macroeconomics | pensions | portfolio-management | stocks | structured-products-and-derivatives | value-investing
Chart Presentation: Thesis Review
We have been working with the thesis that the markets would recover in a sequence that would begin with an improvement in U.S. employment, work through into a flattening out of U.S. housing prices, carry through into a period of relative outperformance by the banking shares which would, in turn, ...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Against Risk Parity
Many investment ideas are promising so long as few do them. Yes, there is an opportunity, but it is limited. "Shh, don't tell everyone about it."Thus, the concept of "risk parity." Lever every asset class up until it has the same volatility as common stocks. Under theoretical conditions, one c...
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Tags: academic-finance | asset-allocation | banks | bonds | macroeconomics | portfolio-management | public-policy | quantitative-methods | speculation | stocks | structured-products-and-derivatives
Chart Presentation: Comparative Views
The 'decade theme' is based on the idea that the markets keep repeating similar trends from decade to decade. On the face of it this would mean that getting a handle on 'the trend' should get easier since we know what is coming but... the markets do an admirable job of making each and every time ...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: North of 1400
Both the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the price of the U.S. 30-year T-Bonds were lower in trading yesterday. The equity markets rose in response.The Ragin' Cajun, Jim Carville, once said that, "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Confirmation
We are going to make the case for the Canadian dollar declining from close to parity with the U.S. dollar to perhaps as low as .8800 over the next month or two on page 3 today. To start with, however, we are going to return to the topic of 'offsets'. At top right is a chart comparison from 1998 i...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Push and Pull
For those in the northern regions of the northern hemisphere it is always nice to see the end of the month of January. While there will still be plenty of challenging weather conditions to deal with... at least the days are getting longer. Pushing and pulling. In a positive trend rising long-term...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: A Different Perspective
We are going to head off in a new direction today. We actually didn't intend to follow this line of thought when we started setting things out but sometimes these things just happen. The argument is that there is a certain similarity between the current time period and that of early 1999. In othe...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: The 2% Solution
In yesterday's issue we commented that we were bullish on the equity markets because... each and every significant low for equities since the Asian crisis in 1998 had been made with a concurrent low for yields. In other words... as long as long-term Treasury yields are not headed lower it makes s...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | treasuries
