Kara Crawford at kara@traderplanet.comadmin@traderplanet.comhttp://www.traderplanet.com/TraderPlanet.com offers its popular content for commercial syndication via RSS. The feeds include backlinks for the full articles and automatically assign author attribution, which is required. To syndicate these RSS feeds on a commercial Web site, TraderPlanet.com, LLC requires the execution of standard linking agreement. Contact Kara Crawford at kara@traderplanet.com for further details.en-ushttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134307-chart_presentation_reallyhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134307-chart_presentation_really<p >We featured the chart below in yesterday's issue but we are going to run it again today as we attack the markets from a slightly different perspective. The inspiration for this particular ramble comes from our head-shaking reaction to the comments from a well-known major-dealer markets strategist in yesterday's financial press. We will not mention names, firms, or include quotes but the idea was that the equity markets were going to remain in a trading range because... strong stock markets re...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134307-chart_presentation_really'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/834/?a=1070><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/wyckoff.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comThu, 09 Feb 2012 14:20:16 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134130-chart_presentation_stealthhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134130-chart_presentation_stealth<p >From Bloomberg yesterday, <em>"Japan used so-called stealth intervention in November as the government sought to stem yen gains that hammered earnings at makers of exports ranging from cars to electronics."</em></p> <p >Whether 'stealth intervention' makes sense or not the reality is that Japanese Finance Ministry data shows that over $13 billion worth of yen sales were conducted during the first four days of November. <br /><br />The argument is and has been that the yen is trading in the same direction as the long end ...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134130-chart_presentation_stealth'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comWed, 08 Feb 2012 14:01:05 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134107-a_proposal_for_money_market_funds_iihttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134107-a_proposal_for_money_market_funds_ii<p>I thought that I had a really good proposal for dealing with money market fund problems. And it is good, far better than what the SEC is proposing. My proposal is better because it treats money market funds like ETFs -- they are pass-through vehicles, and as such, do not need capital buffers.</p> <p>And, my proposal is better, because it recognizes that credit events should be rare but acceptable aspects of how money market funds work. Think about it: particularly when short term interest rates are ...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134107-a_proposal_for_money_market_funds_ii'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/834/?a=1070><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/wyckoff.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comDavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comWed, 08 Feb 2012 08:29:15 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133948-against_risk_parity_reduxhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133948-against_risk_parity_redux<p>Here are two articles to read on risk parity:</p> <p>Pro: Pick Your Poison</p> <p>Con: The Hidden Risks of Risk Parity Portfolios</p> <p>I'm on the "con" side of this argument, because I am a risk manager, and have traded a large portfolio of complex bonds. For additional support consider my article Risks, Not Risk. Or read the second half of my article, "The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part X." There is no generic risk in the markets. There are many risks. Interest rate risk and credit risk are differ...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133948-against_risk_parity_redux'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/834/?a=1070><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/wyckoff.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comDavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comTue, 07 Feb 2012 14:54:13 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133917-chart_presentation_windmills_and_goldhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133917-chart_presentation_windmills_and_gold<p ><em>Feb. 6 -- U.S. stocks declined, following a five-week rally for the Standard &amp; Poor's 500 Index, amid concern about Europe's debt crisis as Greek leaders wrestled with spending cuts to get aid and avert a default.</em></p> <p >The beat goes on. Positive news on U.S. employment putting upward pressure on yields and supporting the cyclical trend only to be met almost immediately by offsetting negative news from the Eurozone. <br /><br />We thought we would come at the markets from a different direction today. At right ...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133917-chart_presentation_windmills_and_gold'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comTue, 07 Feb 2012 14:03:25 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133844-2012_a_repeat_of_03_and_09http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133844-2012_a_repeat_of_03_and_09<p>In the latest writing that Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report published of mine, I argued that following the Summer Crash and Fall Melt-Up of last year, market internals seem to be suggesting the strong possibility that inflation expectations are returning to risk-assets.</p> <p>As followers of my thinking are aware, I deeply believe that identifying conditions is far more important than making predictions. The most important condition that drives the asset-allocation decision is the direc...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133844-2012_a_repeat_of_03_and_09'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> profitimes, TraderPlanet.comprofitimes, TraderPlanet.comMon, 06 Feb 2012 22:32:50 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133848-huggies_price_cut_shows_why_bond_market_backs_fed_qe3http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133848-huggies_price_cut_shows_why_bond_market_backs_fed_qe3<p>Procter &amp; Gamble Co.'s failure to raise the price of Cascade dishwashing soap shows why investors are buying Treasuries at the lowest yields in history, giving the Federal Reserve more scope to boost the economy.</p> <p>The world's largest consumer-products company rolled back prices after an 8 percent increase lost the firm 7 percentage points of market share. Kimberly-Clark Corp. started offering coupons on Huggies after resistance to the diapers' cost. Darden Restaurants Inc. raised prices at les...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133848-huggies_price_cut_shows_why_bond_market_backs_fed_qe3'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> profitimes, TraderPlanet.comprofitimes, TraderPlanet.comMon, 06 Feb 2012 22:07:47 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133833-sorted_recent_tweetshttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133833-sorted_recent_tweets<p>Trying a new format here, I think readers will like it better. Most things are better after additional effort. Think of this as a news links by subject post.</p><p><strong>Economics</strong></p><ul><li>If you look in the back, it seems that there were 58 respondents. From page 13: Methodology &amp; Panel Selection Invi... http://t.co/p8sVZl9g Feb 06, 2012</li><li>Will the great interest rate gamble pay off? http://t.co/hgj5XSKc People want to believe that you can get something for nothing; ain't true. Feb 05, 2012</li><li>Central Planning at the Fed...</li></ul><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133833-sorted_recent_tweets'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comDavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comMon, 06 Feb 2012 21:27:33 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133730-chart_presentation_thesis_reviewhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133730-chart_presentation_thesis_review<p>We have been working with the thesis that the markets would recover in a sequence that would begin with an improvement in U.S. employment, work through into a flattening out of U.S. housing prices, carry through into a period of relative outperformance by the banking shares which would, in turn, put upward pressure on U.S. short-term interest rates. This would go with a better trend for the U.S. dollar which would put downward pressure on commodity prices and help to push the markets into a t...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133730-chart_presentation_thesis_review'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comMon, 06 Feb 2012 13:57:39 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133611-against_risk_parityhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133611-against_risk_parity<p>Many investment ideas are promising so long as few do them. Yes, there is an opportunity, but it is limited. "Shh, don't tell everyone about it."</p><p>Thus, the concept of "risk parity." Lever every asset class up until it has the same volatility as common stocks. Under theoretical conditions, one could make extra money doing this, and with less risk than just a common stock portfolio.</p><p>That makes sense when few are doing it, but not when many are doing it. When I worked for Hovde Capital Advisors, I...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133611-against_risk_parity'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comDavidMerkel, TraderPlanet.comSun, 05 Feb 2012 04:59:12 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133427-chart_presentation_comparative_viewshttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133427-chart_presentation_comparative_views<p >The 'decade theme' is based on the idea that the markets keep repeating similar trends from decade to decade. On the face of it this would mean that getting a handle on 'the trend' should get easier since we know what is coming but... the markets do an admirable job of making each and every time period feel wholly unique. <br /><br />When we delve into the 'decade trend' we tend to argue that there are broad similarities even though from decade to decade the cast of characters seems to change. One time a...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133427-chart_presentation_comparative_views'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comFri, 03 Feb 2012 13:47:48 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133192-chart_presentation_north_of_1400http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133192-chart_presentation_north_of_1400<p >Both the U.S. Dollar Index and the price of the U.S. 30-year T-Bonds were lower in trading yesterday. The equity markets rose in response.<br /><br />The Ragin' Cajun, Jim Carville, once said that, "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." <br /><br />The point, we suppose, is that it seldom makes sense to argue with the bond market. On the other hand when th...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133192-chart_presentation_north_of_1400'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comThu, 02 Feb 2012 13:56:32 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132984-chart_presentation_confirmationhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132984-chart_presentation_confirmation<p >We are going to make the case for the Canadian dollar declining from close to parity with the U.S. dollar to perhaps as low as .8800 over the next month or two on page 3 today. <br /><br />To start with, however, we are going to return to the topic of 'offsets'. At top right is a chart comparison from 1998 into 2002 between the Nasdaq Composite Index and the share price of Canada's Bank of Montreal . <br /><br />We should note that the relationship between the Nasdaq and Canadian banks shown on this chart is not rel...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132984-chart_presentation_confirmation'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/834/?a=1070><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/wyckoff.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comWed, 01 Feb 2012 13:44:45 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132765-chart_presentation_push_and_pullhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132765-chart_presentation_push_and_pull<p >For those in the northern regions of the northern hemisphere it is always nice to see the end of the month of January. While there will still be plenty of challenging weather conditions to deal with... at least the days are getting longer. <br /><br />Pushing and pulling. <br /><br />In a positive trend rising long-term yields 'push' short-term yields higher. In a negative trend falling short-term yields 'pull' long-term yields lower. <br /><br />A 'push' market tends to be cyclically positive while a 'pull' market is cyclicall...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132765-chart_presentation_push_and_pull'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comTue, 31 Jan 2012 13:58:09 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132567-chart_presentation_a_different_perspectivehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132567-chart_presentation_a_different_perspective<p >We are going to head off in a new direction today. We actually didn't intend to follow this line of thought when we started setting things out but sometimes these things just happen. <br /><br />The argument is that there is a certain similarity between the current time period and that of early 1999. In other words the post-Eurozone crisis bears a certain resemblance to the post-Asian/Russian/Brazilian situation that marked the end of 1998.<br /><br />First is a comparison between the S&amp;P 500 Index and the sum of 3-...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132567-chart_presentation_a_different_perspective'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> KevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comKevinKlombies, TraderPlanet.comMon, 30 Jan 2012 14:07:31 +0000