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Bonds Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 3 out of 3 found.

Ignore The Man Behind The Curtain

Ignore The Man Behind The Curtain

The chart below tells you just about all you need to know about the market’s assessment of how many rate hikes are going to come in the year of 2016.  The chart is the one-year Eurodollar spread EDH’16 to EDH’17.  The one-year spread is essentially a reflection of how much higher a forward rate will be as compared to now.  As you can see the spread has collapsed from 91 bps to just 23.5 bps...

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Looking For The Security Of Treasuries? Buy Fives

Looking For The Security Of Treasuries? Buy Fives

For the past two and a half years the Five year treasury yield has ranged between 1.26% to 1.81% as shown below.  Consider buying FVH6 for a move back towards the lower end of this range.   On Tuesday the yield was 1.725, closer to the upper end of the range than the bottom.  Many analysts have said that treasury yields are ready to burst out to the upside as the Fed begins to hike. ...

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Profit With Bonds In A Rate Rising Era

Profit With Bonds In A Rate Rising Era

Tantrum…NOT! An article on Bloomberg the other day cited Deutsche Bank analysts predicting a “baby tantrum” in bonds in 2016.  “[Dominic Konstam] predicts the Fed will catch bond traders wrong-footed by raising rates in March.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-26/deutsche-bank-sees-taper-tantrum-echo-ahead-for-u-s-treasuries While I do agree with another point in the article,...

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