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Bonds Commentaries

Showing Commentaries 1 - 5 out of 5 found.

Wicked Reversal: Clue To Short Bond Futures

Wicked Reversal: Clue To Short Bond Futures

The last leg of this Bond rally began on June 3rd, when the jobless claims number came in horrifically low. This led to the belief that there was no way the FOMC would raise rates in their June 15th announcement. Obviously, the FOMC did not raise rates and Bond prices continued to climb after the initial announcement. However, the wicked reversal since reality set in is actually the clue...

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10-Year Notes Poised For Big Move

10-Year Notes Poised For Big Move

Ten-year Treasury Notes have been rotating in a well-defined range for the past couple months.  Based on the current price action and looking at the economic calendar in the coming week, the next directional move may be right around the corner. Click here to watch a video explaining how to read markets using volume at price. You can see on the chart below, notes are making a third test of...

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Treasury Watch

Treasury Watch

--Several news sources are coincidentally citing debt levels.  WSJ has a big chart outlining consumer debt levels in the US, warning that risks are growing.  However, the household debt obligation ratio is not flashing any warning signals as of now.  In the US the problem is likely to come from the corporate sector, where non-fin corp debt is near a 30 year high at 45% of GDP (Daily Shot). ...

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US Yields Maintain Downside Bias

US Yields Maintain Downside Bias

--Once again US yields edged lower Wednesday, with tens -1.4 bps to 178.2.  The curve had a flattening bias, with red/gold euro$ spread at just 74 bps, -2 on the day.  Weakness in stocks was a partial driver, though the US market appears to be the beneficiary of safe haven flows during Asian hours, with concerns about China's massive debt load continuing to draw scrutiny.  For example, BBG...

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Can't Have a 3 Standard Deviation Move Every Day

Can't Have a 3 Standard Deviation Move Every Day

Yields fell after the FOMC meeting, with the ten year treasury -7.5 bps to 185.6, however, the Bank of Japan's inaction is a much larger influence on prices across the board this morning.  US yields have pushed even lower as the Nikkei fell 3.6% and $/yen traded in the low 108 handle, near new lows.  These moves are likely to cause reverberations and a possible risk-off episode across asset...

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