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Bonds Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 4 out of 4 found.

Can't Have a 3 Standard Deviation Move Every Day

Can't Have a 3 Standard Deviation Move Every Day

Yields fell after the FOMC meeting, with the ten year treasury -7.5 bps to 185.6, however, the Bank of Japan's inaction is a much larger influence on prices across the board this morning.  US yields have pushed even lower as the Nikkei fell 3.6% and $/yen traded in the low 108 handle, near new lows.  These moves are likely to cause reverberations and a possible risk-off episode across asset...

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Time to Look Lower In Treasury Bonds

Time to Look Lower In Treasury Bonds

Even as the Fed is signaling that there will be two or more increases in the federal funds rate in 2016, we note that the diagonal pattern in treasuries that we have been following for several years appears to be near completion. Readers familiar with Elliott wave theory know that an ending diagonal should consist of five overlapping waves – here labeled as [i]-[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v]. Each of...

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On the Brink of Higher Interest Rates

On the Brink of Higher Interest Rates

Fed scenarios and interest rate rhetoric abound but there’s one story teller that will not lie… the chart. Interest rates, as reflected by the ten-year yield ($TNX), are back testing resistance at 1.907 – 1.974.  Any move above this zone of resistance, where rates have currently paused, will open the door for further upside.  This would mean higher rates dead ahead. Click here to watch a...

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FOMC Alert: What Do Interest Rate Spreads Say Now?

FOMC Alert: What Do Interest Rate Spreads Say Now?

The Federal Reserve meets today, amid widespread expectations that 1) there will be no rate changes at this meeting and 2) that the Fed will signal a move to higher rates as international financial stresses abate.  US labor markets continue to improve.  Stocks have retraced the bulk of the Jan/Feb losses.  Commodities including oil have been edging higher.  While the US economy is still...

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