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Sell Signal For US Stocks: Rough Week Ahead

Sell Signal For US Stocks: Rough Week Ahead

While the eighth year of a Presidential term calls for a rally from mid-May to early/mid-June, it doesn’t promise to be straight up. This week looks set to see a correction downward against the bigger trend. The McClellan Oscillator’s dip below -150 and the lower Bollinger Band on 5/19/16 (the one-year anniversary of the top of the bull market in the Dow) marked the low of the recent...

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Markets Are Getting That Overbought Look Again

Markets Are Getting That Overbought Look Again

After the best performance in a couple of months, markets are back to an overbought look on several indicators, and that may send diverging messages.  No doubt the price action was very bullish, rising three of five days coming off a very good finish the prior week and breaking significant support as well.  It appears that support at 2040 on the SPX 500 was to be tested and happened when the...

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Netflix On The Verge Of A Major Move

Netflix On The Verge Of A Major Move

Netflix might be making a sizable triangle of some kind. Be patient on this “buy low, sell high monster”. There’s some obvious lower highs coming in. NFLX is interacting with the 200 SMA on a daily chart. See Figure 1 below.     Understanding the gaps and daily chart let me into this weekly bear call spread.    From here, I don’t know for sure if NFLX rolls over and bounces, But if it does,...

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Negative Interest Rates Set To Propel Stocks To The Stratosphere?

Negative Interest Rates Set To Propel Stocks To The Stratosphere?

Every man must patiently bide his time. He must wait -- not in listless idleness but in constant, steady, cheerful endeavours, always willing and fulfilling and accomplishing his task, that when the occasion comes he may be equal to the occasion. Henry Wadsworth Longfellow  Central bankers wanted to put the fear of God into the masses and to a large degree they have succeeded in doing so;...

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Low Volatility Can Be Tough For Bulls and Bears

Low Volatility Can Be Tough For Bulls and Bears

Markets have been under the guise of low volatility as seen in the VIX since this gauge started trending down in early February, and once it broke the 200 ma (see the chart) it has been grinding between 12 and 16.5.  That is somewhat normal around this time period, and we have seen spikes in volatility sold off before the end of the trading session (noted on the chart).  Usually, low...

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Stock Pick: Chart Triggers Buy Signal For Splunk

Stock Pick: Chart Triggers Buy Signal For Splunk

Splunk is one of those highly volatile names that when it trends it can provide some great profit opportunities.  As we see from the chart this stock has created a wide range over just the past few months.  The gap lower in February seemed devastating but Splunk got its energy back following a strong earnings report a few weeks later.  That move left a big gap in the chart and the following...

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Profit From Sell-Off In the Yen

Profit From Sell-Off In the Yen

The Japanese Yen has fallen away from the higher resistance level that we noted for readers here in early April, near 0.009360. If price remains beneath that area, then the Yen should be on track to test or fall beneath the lows of 2015. Such a test could happen later this year, and it may happen again – with lower lows – sometime in 2017. If you have been following the progression of our...

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It's Simple: Trade The Bullish Retest Gap

It's Simple: Trade The Bullish Retest Gap

Traders from around the planet, I hope you are doing remarkable! In this article I want to cover the simplicity of 1 specific type of gap. The bullish retest gap. And, we’re going to cover it on a swing trading level. The reason I look for gaps is because gaps cause emotion and therefore, a higher probability of direction. That’s what I’m looking for in a swing trade initially; ‘did the...

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Profit In The FX Market From Brexit

Profit In The FX Market From Brexit

Many investors in the U.S. are focusing on the November elections, but we have another significant global political event in the next few weeks.   The European Union Referendum, which will be held in the United Kingdom on June 23, 2016 will affect world-wide markets, and especially, the currency markets.   Voters will be asked to vote to “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the...

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Is The Fed Shrouding Their Message Behind Plumes Of Smoke?

Is The Fed Shrouding Their Message Behind Plumes Of Smoke?

There was an illuminating interview with former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker on FT Alphaville this week.  The article notes that Volcker frequently dissented “when William Miller was briefly Fed chair before him.” I found the following exchange particularly interesting: Volcker “Well, if you’re the chairman you always like to have a consensus; if you’re opposed you think it’s a healthy...

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Crude Oil Reaching for $50: Now What?

Crude Oil Reaching for $50: Now What?

Crude oil spent time in both January and February this year trading below $30 per barrel.  Price is now closing in on $50 per barrel.  Where will this run higher end?  What are the important price locations for traders to know?  Glad you asked. Click here to watch a video explaining how to read markets using volume at price. Crude has nearby support established at 46.65 on any pullback with...

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Grains Trade Fear Before Fact: Soymeal Alert

Grains Trade Fear Before Fact: Soymeal Alert

The market will always trade fear before fact and that was the case in the soybean market this week especially in soy meal. Tightness concerns for meal due to ongoing weather issues in Argentina have rallied July soymeal futures over 44 percent in the last month. End users have been caught short bought on a global basis and a continued slow harvest advance in Argentina has funds,...

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The US Housing Market, Brexit, And The Market Goes Up

The US Housing Market, Brexit, And The Market Goes Up

The Fed is silent, not a peep from China, and oil is quietly waiting for the US inventory report to arrive. So what gives? Why is the market popping big today? - New U.S. single-family home sales surged to a more than eight-year high in April and prices hit a record high. - The usually strong spring housing market could be far stronger this year, if only there were more homes for sale. The...

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Trade Alert: Sell An Iron Condor Before Memorial Day

Trade Alert: Sell An Iron Condor Before Memorial Day

The market certainly exhibited some volatility last week and seems like everyone wants to take a bit of a breather.  Another thing to keep in mind is that we have the Memorial Day holiday coming up on Monday.  When you have a holiday like Memorial Day it tend to act like a double day off as traders tend to take off early on Friday if nothing happens immediately off the open.  They get to...

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US Foods’ (USFD) IPO: Fine Dining or Junk Food?

US Foods’ (USFD) IPO: Fine Dining or Junk Food?

In what shapes up to be perhaps the busiest week for the IPO market in 2016, with as many as seven deals pricing, there is one that stands out due to the size of the offering. That IPO is US Foods (USFD), which is expected to raise about $1.0 billion in gross proceeds, should its 44.4 million share IPO price in line with the $21-$24 projected price range. That would put it second only to MGM...

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