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The Final Stretch of 2014

The Final Stretch of 2014

Today is the Monday that begins the last week of 2014. Chances are, most folks who work the market are already checking out, but that does not mean we will not see activity. The last few days could mean profit taking or buying. So far today, it is the latter that seems to be the choice. The market is working hard to go higher, much higher. Yet and still, the argument remains as to the...

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DXY to 160, No, But 91 Likely

DXY to 160, No, But 91 Likely

DXY gained 1.69% last week to close at 89.84. That move printed an engulfing, bullish candlestick on the weekly chart. As long as DXY remains above 88.68 (the breakout level from the June 2010 high) I remain bullish. However, a four-year cycle top is due now. The next short-term cycle high is expected during the first week of February. A 3-wave (A-B-C) move off the 2011 low and my own price...

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Well, Well, Well … No Market Collapse?

Well, Well, Well … No Market Collapse?

Well, yesterday’s market rebound from recent losses impressed me, as it did many others, but the closing was absolutely breathtaking. Yesterday’s finish surprised me in its strength and the message sent was the bulls were never out the game, that they were just waiting for the moment to capitalize on the bears insistence. Yesterday was the moment. Today’s market action pushes this thesis...

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A Deep Look At LNKD

A Deep Look At LNKD

Against a backdrop of a fallen market that, until two days ago, couldn”t quite manage to regain its footing, LNKD impressively managed to shrug off the weakness by flexing its muscles to the tune of 13 percent. What next? The chart below was released to my TradeWinds subscribers on December 9th, the exact day of the reversal. Having rallied in “wave a of 3” up to 238.77 through November 4th,...

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Forget The Speed, Watch The Patterns

Forget The Speed, Watch The Patterns

Sometimes, it seems our brains move in slow motion as it relates to market action.  Perhaps it is the computers and High Frequency Traders (HFTs) that are just lapping us.  Maybe our hopes and expectations get in the way of sound judgment and free thinking. Maybe it is the angst we sometimes feel when the market is as volatile as it has been recently. I can't seem to put my finger on the...

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A Snippet Of Classroom Talk About Options

A Snippet Of Classroom Talk About Options

Reward to risk is not the be-all-end-all of risk management.  I talk about this concept all the time in my classroom. Recently, Macy's Department Store (M) was a topic of discussion regarding risk-reward is risk management. A student was looking for an opportunity to take a directional long in M, so we did some live analysis in the classroom.  There are no weekly options available for M, and...

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Back To The Future, Almost

Back To The Future, Almost

Is this back to the future? Actually, I should ask is this “almost” back to the future? In just two days, the market has clawed, well, that is not the right word. How about in just two days, the market has roared its way back to where it should be, just a little bit down from its record highs. After their biggest six-day tumble in three years, European shares have regained more than half of...

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Better Stops Make Better Trades

Better Stops Make Better Trades

Over the last 10 days, the Average True Range (ATR) of a 60-minute bar in the NASDAQ futures has increased from around six points to 18 points. Why might this be important to know, even if you don’t trade that particular market? You may have heard the phrase “More is different.” It means that incremental changes can make a qualitative difference, not just an arithmetic difference. An example...

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Buy The February E-Mini S&P 500

Buy The February E-Mini S&P 500

In the last FOMC meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve decided to leave in every observer’s favorite phrase “considerable time.” When the Fed says “considerable time,” it reminds me of being a kid, asking your parents for something and getting the reply, “maybe later.” Maybe later? What does that mean? Is it yes or no and when is later?  The Fedspeak translator 2014 still hasn’t told me...

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I Don’t Have Anything To Say About The Market Today

I Don’t Have Anything To Say About The Market Today

Every work day, I read the news, watch the market, write what I write, and I generally do it with a dispassionate, objective view. Some days, though, my dispassionate view is challenged, but I get past it. Other days, such as yesterday, I read about an action so cold, I cannot put my compassion away; I cannot look the other way. My objectivity goes out the window and I just want to scream....

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Soybean Rally On January Crop Report

Soybean Rally On January Crop Report

Last Thursday’s weekly US export-sales report is a weekly gauge of demand telling us how much of each grain was sold last week for future shipment.  Index and trend following funds use these reports to determine whether the US is over-selling or under-selling grain in the current marketing year.  The marketing year for US corn and beans is September 1st to August 31st.  To date, 80% of the...

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How To Trade A Gap Up

How To Trade A Gap Up

On December 12, 2014, Adobe Systems (ADBE) gapped up on earnings to $74.17.  The stock closed the prior day at $69.74.  Now, the novice trader might think that the stock was moving up too much and therefore he or she should short it, while the experienced trader would want to look long for a bigger move. This is where experience pays off. Questions To Ask The first question I ask myself in...

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Buy The S&P 500 For Profits In 2015

Buy The S&P 500 For Profits In 2015

Recent economic, global and geopolitical events have put traders on edge. A plethora of negative news items have allowed the bulls to box themselves into a corner in the “wall of worry”. The good news is that the S&P 500, the stock market, and US economy are set to surge in 2015. This means that now is a good time to be looking at stocks and getting long the broad market. Worries...

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Yes, These Are Uncertain Times, But ...

Yes, These Are Uncertain Times, But ...

Man-oh-man, the battle is raging now. The push and pull between the bears and the bulls is both riveting and disconcerting. It is like the moment of passing a car crash – you are compelled to look even though you know you are looking at potential pain and suffering. At one point today, the Dow was well over 200 points and in this moment, this very moment, it is struggling to stay in the...

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SPX 1540 Target – Don’t Count It Out

SPX 1540 Target – Don’t Count It Out

When we are in an environment where traders are “All in” or “All out” and price is moving at warp speed, you have to shorten your time horizon. There are specific time periods where you can buy and hold and do very well, but, from what I am seeing, that period is gone. Elliot Wave (EW) counting has become very popular in the trading community. I am not going to make this an Elliot Wave...

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