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Lions, Tigers And Soybeans…Oh My!

Lions, Tigers And Soybeans…Oh My!

With the USDA report unleashing further buying pressure into an already bullish grain complex yesterday, corn, wheat and beans finished with the substantial upside gains and among the largest percentage gainers on the commodity board. But to be certain, the real opportunity to take long positions in these commodities wasn’t on the report release.  The clear buying opportunity revealed itself...

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Ask Kase: 10 Year US Treasury Note

Ask Kase: 10 Year US Treasury Note

“Ask Kase” any question you may have about any actively traded security, and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). Will the 10 Year US Treasury Note be Playing “Bass”? As the 2H2015 commences, fundamental market analysts are lamenting the stock market’s prospects, pointing to low earnings and higher borrowing costs. US Treasury yield spreads are...

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What Will The Greek Vote Mean For the Euro?

What Will The Greek Vote Mean For the Euro?

Through the last half of 2014 until March of 2015, the Euro steadily sold off versus the dollar, as the ECB launched QE and European yields cratered.  For example, Spain's ten year note yield went from 2.82% in July to as low as 1.15 at its nadir March.  As has been well publicized, many shorter maturity yields went negative, for example the German two year note fell to negative 28 bps.  The...

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Watch These 3 Nasdaq Trading Targets Now

Watch These 3 Nasdaq Trading Targets Now

The Nasdaq has been in “gap-hunt mode” for more than a month. These periods arise when there is a sufficient number of bears to create multi-day down moves. Due to the selling over the last few days, the Volume Profile Point of Control (VPPOC) has moved down almost 100 points since last Thursday. This will be the target for any bounce from these lower levels. The Upper and Lower Value Area...

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Can US Stocks Stabilize After Greek Default?

Can US Stocks Stabilize After Greek Default?

The S&P 500 mini-futures (ES) went right in the tank yesterday (Monday) driven to the lowest level since April by what may be the final stage of the Greek debt crisis. Greece will officially default on a payment to the IMF today, the Eurozone has cut off funding, and Greek banks are close to collapse. The mini-futures gapped down 40 points at the Globex opening – the first chance traders...

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Sometimes, Taking A Break Is A Good Thing

Sometimes, Taking A Break Is A Good Thing

Sometimes in Life, one just needs to take a break and do something different, something else for a bit. It doesn’t mean one does not enjoy that thing; it simply means that one desires some fresh air, a gulp of air to refresh and invigorate. Well, folks, I am going for a gulp of air. I will be back, but for now, my writing will turn to e-books about the trading and investing world. I am going...

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Don't Be Fooled: Look At This Stock Chart Now

Don't Be Fooled: Look At This Stock Chart Now

Time for us to brag a little. Earlier this week we cast doubt on the breathlessly-announced Greek debt deal, and predicted a decline in the S&P 500 mini-futures, the ES. Yesterday (Thursday) it all worked out pretty much as we expected. The alleged deal has disappeared, the euro summit that was supposed to ratify it has been cancelled, and the negotiators are working under stern...

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Protect Profits: VIX Flashing Warning Signs

Protect Profits: VIX Flashing Warning Signs

The VIX as an indicator has been considered by many to be broken, but frankly that is just nonsense.  The indicator is doing what it is supposed to do, reflecting the positioning of option traders in the SPX 500 contract.  That bet is not always right, and we saw that recently.  A month ago when the market tanked following the Memorial Day someone went long volatility and bought a slew of...

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It’s Simple – We Switch The Channel When We Get Bored

It’s Simple – We Switch The Channel When We Get Bored

As I was reading this morning about economic theory regarding the volatility of the stock market, it occurred to me that a) economics is clearly more an art than science, and b) perhaps there is a simple yet highly affective factor that is pivotal to market volatility, yet no one is talking about it, at least not in high-minded economic circles. The factor is both relative to the fear...

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Sometimes, My Thinking Is All Wet

Sometimes, My Thinking Is All Wet

If one wants to learn about market movement, one has to come at that learning with a single context, a frame of mind that singularly focuses on two things – the market is forward looking and its singular concern is corporate profit. All the rest is just flotsam churning in the current, debris bobbing in the waves, or, to continue the discombobulating water-movement metaphor, ripples from the...

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Go Leading, Not Lagging And Think Solar

Go Leading, Not Lagging And Think Solar

The good news is it is Tuesday. Monday is long gone. The bad news is Tuesday is no better than Monday relative to market news.   Growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector moderated in June for a third month in a row, slipping to its slowest pace since late 2013, according to an industry report released on Tuesday. Blah, blah, blah … We already know this stuff. It is about durable goods...

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Change, Innovation, And Some "You Go Girl"

Change, Innovation, And Some "You Go Girl"

Well, it is Monday again (weird how it appears on a regular basis), the slow day of the week, the one day that requires more energy for liftoff. At least for me it requires more energy for liftoff, but, apparently, not so for the market. It is Monday (again) and the market is pushing hard into the green. I suspect it is the news that Greece might be coming back to earth in its negotiations...

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Review: Chaikin Analytics, How It Works

Review: Chaikin Analytics, How It Works

Trying to make your way in this very tough market is nearly impossible without the right guide.  Imagine trying to find a new destination without a road map (or gps or siri).  You'll find yourself getting lost, asking for directions and 'hoping' you get where you're going before too long.  It's the same with trading markets and investing.  If you are not armed with the right tools then...

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Sharing Feelings, Sometimes It Happens

Sharing Feelings, Sometimes It Happens

Right out of the gate, I want to say I have feelings I want to share. Relax. Just go with it. Believe it or not, I have feelings about the Greek drama unfolding, and those feelings stem from the reality the Greeks have a long, dramatic history (think Euripides and Homer), and I have a graduate degree in Literature, so I know a thing or two about that history. Watching the current drama...

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The Good, The Bad, And The Battery Thing

The Good, The Bad, And The Battery Thing

When the market goes up, does anyone really care why? Today is a good example. The Fed said what it said, which is what it usually says, which is usually not much on the specific side of life and the market loves it. Here we are again, the market marching upward toward its record highs. Well, let that be as it is. The market is still playing the Fed game. In the meantime, I want to point out...

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