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Someone Is Urgently Betting On Oil Going Back Up

Someone Is Urgently Betting On Oil Going Back Up

“Urgent.” The word when read or said elicits a feeling, a visceral sensibility. Funny thing, though, when I read or lead with it relative to the market, it lacks meaning. The market is anything but urgent. The Dow and the S&P 500 are not moving, the VIX is hanging around 13.5, gold is flat (and has been for some time), and the US dollar is moving a little here and there, but fairly...

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A Options Play On The Loonie

A Options Play On The Loonie

The Canadian dollar is often viewed as a commodity currency. The term refers to the view that a country’s currency is tied heavily to the commodities and natural resources it produces and exports. In the case of Canada, the Loonie (as the Canadian Dollar is often referred to) often trends with crude oil. Since the beginning of the year, the Loonie has traded from just shy of 86.00 to a low...

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Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

I expected a continuation of the correction in Apple (AAPL) on Thursday and at the open it dropped quickly toward $126, taking the Nasdaq Futures (NQ) down to 4431. However, before reaching its gap, AAPL stabilized and reversed without doing much damage. The head fake lower sets up an immediate rally in the NQ to 4525-4530. The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100...

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ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

Yesterday On Thursday the S&P500 min-futures (ESH5) made one of those moves that just scream manipulation. The large cap index was working its way lower toward the 2100 support level, coinciding with a decline in oil that saw crude down to $47 a barrel for time, and the dollar dramatically higher, with the Euro trading at 112 U.S. cents, And then, at precisely 3:00 pm., it all turned...

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There Is The Ideal, And Then There Is Reality

There Is The Ideal, And Then There Is Reality

As one writer on TraderPlanet said, “Message For The Market – Slow and Steady.” The point is clear – until we have something extraordinary, the market will chew forty times, swallow slowly, and digest the daily stream of easy news. The next phase of the market is all about central bank policies around the globe. Global equities set a new record high and bond yields sank to fresh lows on...

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Long-Term Breakout In Heron Therapeutics

Long-Term Breakout In Heron Therapeutics

Two large and unusual trades hit the tape on the ARCA exchange in Heron Therapeutics on February 24th and 25th. The Apr $12.50/$17.50 bull call spread was put on a 7,000 times for a $1.28-$1.50 debit. The breakeven point on these massive trades is between $13.78 and $14.00. Call to put ratio was 10:1 and call activity was 75 times the daily volume on February 25th. There was also a seller of...

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The Fed Calls a Fair Game

The Fed Calls a Fair Game

This has been an interesting week with Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying in front of a joint committee of Congress about monetary policy.  This is a bi-annual meeting where lawmakers ask the Chair about policies, concerns, fiscal ideas, and other areas helpful to lawmakers.  This week’s “meeting of the minds” had everyone’s eyes/ears glued to Yellen – would she give a hint about rate hikes? ...

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Message For The Market – Slow And Steady

Message For The Market – Slow And Steady

On Tuesday Fed Chair Janet Yellen went before the Senate Banking Committee to provide semi-annual testimony about the economy and the Fed's role in it.  The central question for many market participants is whether the onset of Fed rate hikes, or "lift off" is near.  Many metrics the Fed had previously cited as thresholds that needed to be crossed for rate hikes to begin have already...

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ESH5: More Of The Same, With A Slightly Different Result

ESH5: More Of The Same, With A Slightly Different Result

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ESH5) made a new high again yesterday (Wednesday Feb. 25) the 11th time since the beginning of February that the market has made a new record. This time it couldn't hold the gain. The futures reached 2117.75 at one point, a price that has never been seen in the ES before, but closed at 2110.25, 3.50 points below the previous close. It was another very...

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Market Review and Forecast: AAPL – Watch Out Below!

Market Review and Forecast: AAPL – Watch Out Below!

Volume Profile is most useful in determining support and resistance during pullbacks. Now that Apple (AAPL) is correcting, let’s take a closer look at its key support levels. AAPL has strong support at the High Volume Node (HVN) at $128.63, and the stock closed just above that level on Wednesday. But High Volume Nodes are like double edged swords; they cut both ways. As long as price is...

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Wait A Bit, Market Direction Is Coming

Wait A Bit, Market Direction Is Coming

One expects the market to behave the way it is behaving today. After all, we are here again, the rarified air of record highs. Big money is not sure where to go from here, even with Ms. Yellen’s dovish comments to the esteemed US Congress. She says she is in no hurry to raise rates, but this does not mean anything, really. She is simply telling us inflation is not a threat at the moment and...

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Fund Rebalancing in Soybeans

Fund Rebalancing in Soybeans

Last week saw the grain market start the week higher, off of the threat of subzero temperatures entering the western wheat states, then finding profit taking the next few sessions as the market prepared for the results of the USDA Outlook Forum Conference.  The Commitment of Traders Report showed trend following funds enter last week short 77,000 bean contracts up 20,000 from the week prior...

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ESH5: The Usual Pattern, Conducted By The Usual Suspects

ESH5: The Usual Pattern, Conducted By The Usual Suspects

Yesterday The S&P500 mini-futures (ESH5) managed to scrape up the energy to make a new all-time high yesterday and close at an all-time high. But it was a pitiful performance nonetheless. The futures closed at 2113.75, a little less than seven points above the previous close, and a little below the record high at 2115.75. The volume was abysmal, less than half the normal level. The...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: S&P Grinding Toward 2120 (+ AAPL)

Futures Market Review and Forecast: S&P Grinding Toward 2120 (+ AAPL)

On Tuesday the S&P crept higher and is approaching my target at 2120. I don’t think 2120 is the top. For one thing, Apple (AAPL) is most likely headed to $150, which should push the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to new all-time highs and keep the S&P levitated. I suspect the S&P will ultimately get to 2164. A Note on Volume Profile The histogram on the left side of the chart shows the volume...

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An Options Play On Coca-Cola

An Options Play On Coca-Cola

The Coca-Cola Company [NYSE: KO, $42.11] produces and markets over 500 beverage products internationally.  The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and is currently led by CEO & Chairman Muhtar Kent. Although nearly flat in 2015 (down less than a quarter percent), KO stock has long been a favorite of investors looking for steady returns and a healthy dividend stream.  The stock...

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