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We Will Know More When Earnings Start Coming Out

We Will Know More When Earnings Start Coming Out

This week promises more volatility as it is a short week, more data about the US economy comes out, Greece promises more excitement, and Iran comes to the table with a deal or it does not. Though markets will be closed for the Good Friday public holiday, the Labor Department will release March U.S. payrolls in the morning. Wall Street will keep one eye on the situation in Greece. The Greek...

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Copper – A Breakout To The Downside?

Copper – A Breakout To The Downside?

We’ve been watching the copper market closely over the last few months because the commercial copper traders had built up a record long position heading into January. The general consensus was clear that commercial long hedgers were taking advantage of depressed prices to load up raw materials in the expectation of a big construction season. However, even before the Federal Reserve Board’s...

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Speed Zone Ahead

Speed Zone Ahead

The precipitous decline in the NQ on Wednesday (3/25) created a speed zone that the market is now entering from below. The principle of the speed zone is simple – a market that falls quickly can rise just as quickly. This is especially true in futures markets where mean reversion is the primary trader orientation.    Because the 4210 area (not shown), which is the Volume Profile Point of...

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SPX: Marking Time …

SPX: Marking Time …

Last week The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2061.02 on Friday, down 47 points for a net weekly loss of 2.23%. That's the loss from close to close, but the SPX also moved from a high at 2114 to a low at 2045, a decline of 69 points, before we saw a little bounce on Friday (Mar. 27). In effect, the market gave back almost all the gain it made on the surge from the Fed's dovish...

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US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

With no break of the 34-dma, and a cycle low due this week, it is beginning to look like the bulk of the expected correction is behind us and DXY will soon begin what is expected to be the last leg of its rally prior to this September. April looks bullish for the dollar with short-term cycles pointing to highs near both Apr. 15 and Apr. 30. The price targetof 102.00 is a minimum target...

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Analyzing Oil Is Crazy Making

Analyzing Oil Is Crazy Making

Tracking market opinion can make you crazy. Analysts are all over the board on any given day. Take the hot topic of our time – oil – for example. Pat Flynn (yes that Pat Flynn) is a new contributor to TraderPlanet and he has an interesting take on how oil got here and where it is going. Check out Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come? His thorough look at oil and the correlation to...

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I Spy: Another Three Day Weekend

I Spy: Another Three Day Weekend

I love selling premium, and in certain market conditions this is one of the best strategies for making money in the stock market. What are we talking about here? It’s all about options, and when we look at trading on the surface, it’s a simple zero sum game – one side wins while the other side loses. Yet, that would be the end game, when options expire at expiration. We can certainly have...

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ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

Yesterday The SP500 mini futures (ESM5) sold off sharply in overnight trading before yesterday's open (Mar. 26), but the 135-day moving average line, which has supported the futures for about four months now, held again, and provided a little bounce after the regular session opened. During regular trading hours, the ES made a strong push up and traded in positive territory for a while. But,...

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Date with Destiny

Date with Destiny

A capitulatory opening gap down on Thursday was repaired after our initial 4285 target was attained (see yesterday’s forecast). The “trick” with using Volume Profile effectively is to experiment with look-back periods in order to get a semi-Gaussian distribution. That means a volume distribution with a clear central peak and “shoulders” on either side. The 90-day look back in the NQ does the...

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Profits Are, Ultimately, The Only Sane Consideration

Profits Are, Ultimately, The Only Sane Consideration

This is March, right? Okay, then, I get it. This is March Madness and this, then, is the state of the market these days. I only describe it this way because yesterday was such a surprise. I expected the market would be done, but almost three hundred on the Dow is a bit mad, given the current state of things in the market world.    The S&P 500 has gone 26 sessions without 2 up days in a...

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Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

If you are a trader, you need volatility in the markets to reach your goals. The toughest market to trade is one that sits in a tight range, and stays there without much movement in either direction.  A stagnant market can be taxing on one’s mind, and if you are participant, it can frustrate you and grind on you emotionally as well. When we are frustrated and make emotional decisions, they...

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ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) had a strong down day yesterday (Mar. 25) and settled at the bottom of the daily range again, the third day this week that it has failed to show a late-afternoon rally. The futures closed at 2053.75, 31 points below the previous close, on heavier volume. The ES moved  moved step-by-step to test each of the breakout points established by last...

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How Traders Are Betting Against Tech Stocks

How Traders Are Betting Against Tech Stocks

Leading the sell-off of the major U.S. equity indices on March 25th was the NASDAQ, and, more specifically, it was the semiconductor stocks. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF dropped nearly 5% on more than three times the average daily volume. For the week, the semiconductor ETF is off by more than 6%, which may lead you to believe that this is overblown and has probably run its course....

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Market Review and Forecast: Soaking Wet

Market Review and Forecast: Soaking Wet

I forecast “a little more rain,” but traders on Wednesday encountered a hurricane of selling. And I don’t think it is over. Yesterday, I published a Volume Profile chart of the day session in the Nasdaq Futures to show the gaps, which act as targets in more serious corrections. The next gap to fill is at 4314.75, but the two more lie nearby at 4292 and 4210 (not shown on this chart). While a...

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Is The Market Being Fair?

Is The Market Being Fair?

When two things are in stark contrast to one another, they could be said to be contrary, or, in contraposition. For example, here are two news items juxtaposed to demonstrate my point. Wall Street stocks and the dollar slipped on Wednesday as government data signaled the U.S. economic expansion was slowing, while gains in the euro prompted a pullback in European stock markets. The euro...

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