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Showing Posts 1 - 9 out of 9 found.

The Loonie-Crude Trend, A Premium Play

The Loonie-Crude Trend, A Premium Play

The Context The Canadian Dollar (Loonie) is trading near 80 again after a visit below 78 last month. When the US Dollar flexed its muscles in March, foreign currencies had a steady decline. After lingering at the lower end of the range, the Loonie put in a recent high of 80.65 before trending lower again. Crude Oil has had a recent bounce as well. If you already follow the Loonie, you know...

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The Eurodollar Curve And Spreads Widening Further?

The Eurodollar Curve And Spreads Widening Further?

I have previously posted that eurodollar one-year calendar spreads in the front end of the curve give a good indication of the market's perception of tightening, and how these one year spreads have compressed over time, as Q1 data has been weak and the employment report caused further re-pricing in terms of rate hike prospects.  As a quick review, Sept '15 to Sept '16 (EDU5/EDU6) spread was...

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US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

With no break of the 34-dma, and a cycle low due this week, it is beginning to look like the bulk of the expected correction is behind us and DXY will soon begin what is expected to be the last leg of its rally prior to this September. April looks bullish for the dollar with short-term cycles pointing to highs near both Apr. 15 and Apr. 30. The price targetof 102.00 is a minimum target...

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Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

If you are a trader, you need volatility in the markets to reach your goals. The toughest market to trade is one that sits in a tight range, and stays there without much movement in either direction.  A stagnant market can be taxing on one’s mind, and if you are participant, it can frustrate you and grind on you emotionally as well. When we are frustrated and make emotional decisions, they...

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Did The US Dollar Index Just Lose Its Mojo?

Did The US Dollar Index Just Lose Its Mojo?

Just prior to the March 18, FOMC meeting, the US dollar index, DXY, put in its highest mark in 12 years, 100.39 on March 13.  Since the March 18 FOMC and Yellen's dovish press conference, the dollar has stalled and given ground versus both major and EM currencies.  Late Tuesday DXY was 97.19. As of now we'd characterize this as a pullback in a bullish trend. Almost everything seems to have...

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Bottoming Action In The Euro Currency

Bottoming Action In The Euro Currency

The Euro currency has been in freefall all winter long. The last meaningful highs were made nearly a year ago around $1.40. This is nearly a 25% decline over the last year and really quite remarkable.  Rarely does a major world currency move so far, so quickly. This leaves current charts devoid of any meaningful frames of reference and leads to our first chart which shows 15 years of Euro...

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The Euro Currency – A Bearish Play

The Euro Currency – A Bearish Play

Mario Draghi gave a bit more detail Thursday morning about the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program. Starting on March 9th, the EU will start buying bonds at a rate of 60 billion Euros a month to fight of the threat of deflation.  Draghi also stated that the program is planned to continue through September of 2016. The ECB is committed to a QE program (quantitative easing) similar...

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All The News All The Time, Sheesh!

All The News All The Time, Sheesh!

“All the news, all the time” is a tagline for more than one news outlet, and in this, the ubiquitous 24-hour news cycle world, it is appropriate. Do you ever get the feeling that there is too much news, though? Let me clarify. There can never be too much news, meaning, legitimate news that informs, educates, and, yes, entertains, but what we can get too much of is repetition, opinion, and...

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A Options Play On The Loonie

A Options Play On The Loonie

The Canadian dollar is often viewed as a commodity currency. The term refers to the view that a country’s currency is tied heavily to the commodities and natural resources it produces and exports. In the case of Canada, the Loonie (as the Canadian Dollar is often referred to) often trends with crude oil. Since the beginning of the year, the Loonie has traded from just shy of 86.00 to a low...

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