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Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 26 found.

How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

The Nicholas Cage film Next is about a guy who can see two minutes into the future. He works as a Las Vegas magician and makes extra money quietly at the blackjack table.   As traders and investors, we would love to be able to see around the corner of time, especially during volatile periods. Since we can’t, when money is at risk, we tend to become fortune tellers and use our intuition to...

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Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is talk of another GFC a reality, or just ridiculous speculation with no foundation whatsoever? Recently I wrote a very well received piece on the recent Greek Debt Crisis where I looked at the cold hard facts when the media went all crazy about a potential oncoming European Crisis, “Will A Greek Exit Trigger Another European Crisis?” It seems like we need to revisit this crisis topic all...

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Forex: Canadian Dollar Near Reversal Point

The Canadian Dollar has been mired by the commodity slump through the last couple of years. This mostly due to their economic reliance on commodity exports like oil, cattle and grains. The Canadian Dollar has lost 30% in the last three years and 10.5% since May. While the market mechanisms that establish new fundamental prices and governmental budgets take time work through, there is...

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Trend Following 101

Trend Following 101

My clients often utter such concise expressions of trading insight that I rush to write them down. I was working with one newbie trader today who is just learning to trade the S&P e-mini futures. When he began using a simple mean reversion system he based it on one indicator (a moving average) and he had some impressive Beginner’s Luck, growing his account about 600% in 4 months. When he...

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Will China Move Delay Fed Rate Hike?

Will China Move Delay Fed Rate Hike?

On Tuesday, China devalued the yuan by 1.9%, roiling global markets.  China had been pegging tightly to the dollar in order to boost the prospect of unseating the US dollar as a reserve currency.   China has also supposedly been trying to transition away from being primarily an export economy, putting more emphasis on domestic consumption, especially for services.   However, the combination...

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The Kiwi is in for a Rough Ride

The Kiwi is in for a Rough Ride

The Kiwi is probably the worst performing currency this year, having lost more than -15% on a year-to-date basis (the Canadian Dollar is the second worst performing currency, just to quench your curiosity) but it seems like there could be a lot more of meat left on the table, going by the analysis on NZD crosses. The RBNZ has been on a rate cutting spree since June 2015 after interest rates...

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Us Dollar Index - Follow the Bear and the Commercial Traders

Us Dollar Index - Follow the Bear and the Commercial Traders

Three things happened Friday that could lead to a tradable short-term top in the U.S. Dollar Index. This market has been stuck in a 7% trading band since the early March highs. Friday’s reversal lower still provides us with a short entry near the top of the recent trading range. First on our list is commercial trader activity. We only take trades inline with commercial momentum. They’ve been...

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USDCHF – Renko Chart Technical Analysis

USDCHF – Renko Chart Technical Analysis

The US Federal Reserve, in its July meeting left the door open for interest rate hikes at its next meeting in September. The statement however cautioned the markets that ‘some’ improvement was needed in the US labour markets for the Central Bank to hike rates. This has significantly shifted the market focus to the two jobs reports, one of which is due this week for July (to be released on...

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The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

This week’s commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index. The July 27 commentary (US Stocks Are Near A Low: Here's Why) mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why “a tradable low is very close”. Indeed, last week’s low was seen that day.  The next...

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Trading Psychology: Men, We Need To Talk

Trading Psychology: Men, We Need To Talk

About a month ago I got a call from a guy, fairly new to e-mini trading, who had just taken a 4-figure loss in one day. The set-back shocked him, but he was still up 30% in his account and after talking to me he felt better. Frankly, I was impressed by his results because his method was very simple (one moving average) and yet he was doing quite well in a difficult market. Some people really...

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Why Is The US Dollar In The Doldrums?

Why Is The US Dollar In The Doldrums?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). On Tuesday pundits were aflutter because the dollar had an up day, pointing to expectations that the Fed would soon clarify its intentions to raise rates. Technically, Tuesday was a “star” with a very small range, and inside bar which closed well below Monday’s open. It was indicative, at most,...

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Lock In Profit On Short Euro Trade

Lock In Profit On Short Euro Trade

Yesterday, the euro rallied on both short covering on bearish euro bets and a strong German IFO Business climate reading.  The IFO survey for July printed a 108.0 reading, better than the 107.6 forecast.  If data continues to improve from Europe’s largest economy, we could see the euro continue to tentatively higher.    Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart shows the double-top pattern...

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Is Gold Dead? Timing The Top In US Stocks

Is Gold Dead? Timing The Top In US Stocks

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was originally created in November of 2004, when the fund was listed under the name StreetTRACKS Gold Shares on the New York Stock Exchange. It was sponsored by State Street Global Advisors and the World Gold Council. Shares have traded under the SPDR name since May of 2008. Unlike most other commodity ETFs, which use futures contracts, the fund is a trust and holds...

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How Traders Can Survive In Today's Techno World

How Traders Can Survive In Today's Techno World

Information and the inherent volatility of the markets has been a staple of the industry for centuries.  The major shift within capital markets is the speed of information delivery and the unpredictable nature of the market reaction to the underlying knowledge of the subject matter.  No longer can a trader or investor rely upon the notion that information is disseminated orderly and...

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