On Demand

Forex Commentaries

Showing Posts 16 - 23 out of 23 found.

VIX Deja-Vu

VIX Deja-Vu

My message on the VIX and the position of the SPX has remained the same for quite some time.  Just as I first published here on TraderPlanet in my November 25th, 2015 article ‘Drawing Parallels to Pre-Financial Crisis’, it’s like Deja-vu all over again.  The period prior to the downturn in 2007 is the comparison I am measuring the current price action against.  I’ve indicated the areas of...

Continue Reading

The Dollar Should Rise, But Not Yet

The Dollar Should Rise, But Not Yet

In our earlier post about the Dollar Index, published last October, we described a likely upward path that might continue into 2017 and beyond. That view still informs our big-picture forecasts for precious metals, foreign exchange instruments, and commodities such as oil and copper. However in the near term, the Dollar appears to be retreating from the upper edge of a corrective envelope....

Continue Reading

Tesla: Crouching Tiger

Tesla: Crouching Tiger

With low holiday volume, this is a time when it is easy for hedge funds to goose quarterly returns by selectively supporting a few of their portfolio favorites. While I don’t expect much from the Nasdaq overall this week, I do recommend looking for trades in select names. I believe we saw the start of a tentative year-end mark-up on Monday, with nice moves in Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon...

Continue Reading

US Dollar: Bull Market

US Dollar: Bull Market

     DXY fell 0.72% last week and closed at 98.01 (below the 13-dma) after printing an engulfing bearish candlestick on Friday.  14-day RSI was unable to stay above its 20-dma during the previous week’s rally and 3-day RSI remains below 80; bearish. Not surprisingly, DXY looks similar to the pattern in TNX – the interest rate on the ten-year treasury. The March/April (and now December) highs...

Continue Reading

Did The Fed Rate Hike Remove Uncertainty?

Did The Fed Rate Hike Remove Uncertainty?

If you believe that first move following the first Fed rate hike in nine years, then you believe the market was relieved exhaling.  In a perverse way, the market seemed to be applauding tightening of policy, which is counter to what we have seen for years.  Sure, the near zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) is still in effect, but the irrational behavior is quite remarkable.  While the overall...

Continue Reading

This Week Is All About The S&P 500

This Week Is All About The S&P 500

Now that the rate hike has been addressed there are crucial changes taking place within the S&P 500’s internal market structure. We’re seeing a major shift between the commercial and small speculator trading categories in positions as well as their degrees of certainty. We’ll dissect what this means in conjunction with the market’s declining open interest as prep for 2016. There’s a lot...

Continue Reading

An Alternative Fed Scenario

An Alternative Fed Scenario

Last week I mentioned that the very short end of the market, i.e. near Eurodollar contracts, were priced for the Fed to hike today.  In the grand scheme of things, a 25 bp move isn’t all that important, if considered in isolation.  It’s not as if all rates across the curve and products instantly rise by ¼%.  For example, the US ten year treasury has had a range of 85 bps this year without a...

Continue Reading

Investor Alert: Don't Lose Money In This Wall Street Scam

Investor Alert: Don't Lose Money In This Wall Street Scam

  Share buybacks just another Wall Street scam Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without one.~Chinese Proverb Wall Street has a new hobby use good money to create the illusion that all is well; only unlike most hobbies, the intent is to distort reality and reward lazy insiders for doing next to nothing.  Gone are the days of actually trying to improve the bottom line, by improving...

Continue Reading
    1 | 2    
Membership is Free. Join Now in less than 5 seconds! Alternatively Join or Sign In here.