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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 180 found.

December Euro Currency Futures: Trading Idea October 24, 2014

December Euro Currency Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December Euro currency that prices have backed off this week and the bears have gained fresh downside momentum. A move in prices below chart support at 1.2600 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.2200 or below. Technical resistance, for which...

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A Bit More Risk-Aversion in Market Place Friday

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The market place may or may not be reacting to news of a possible new Ebola case in New York City. U.S. stock markets are a bit weaker in early electronic trading Friday morning, while U.S. Treasuries and gold are firmer—suggesting a bit more risk aversion in the market place heading into the weekend. However, it can be argued the U.S....

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Gold Bulls are Fading Again

METALS: December gold futures closed down $17.10 an ounce at $1,228.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking and on a big rally in the U.S. stock market. A fledgling three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated today as the bears gained some fresh downside momentum. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close...

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Define Risk On Crude Oil Play With Options

Define Risk On Crude Oil Play With Options

The markets have calmed down a bit from last week, but there is still a cloud of uncertainty hanging overhead. The equity markets have done quite a job of getting back most of the recent sell off. Last week the S&P 500 had a nearly 120 point range from Monday to Thursday, with a 50 point range on Thursday alone. The market closed up 30 points from the low on Thursday, which may have...

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January Soybean Futures: Trading Idea October 23, 2014

January Soybean Futures a Buying Opportunity on More Price Strength See on the daily bar chart for January soybeans that prices are in a fledgling uptrend and have just hit a four-week high. The bulls have gained upside near-term technical momentum recently. A move above chart resistance at Wednesday’s high of $9.90 would give the bulls better upside momentum and it would also become a...

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Oil May Not Be Done Going Down Just Yet

Oil May Not Be Done Going Down Just Yet

The United States Oil Fund LP (USO), a crude oil ETF, is down 22.54% from the highs of 2014. This turn has taken place over the last four months amidst a rally in the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) in the same time period. An end to the Fed’s Quantitative easing program and hints at a rate hike in 2015 are the likely cause for the price action we’ve seen in the U.S....

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Risk Appetite in Market Place Increasing this Week

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The better risk appetite in the market place this week continues on Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. No major flare-ups on the world geopolitical scene are helping to assuage investor anxiety this week, even though there was unsettling news coming out of Canada Wednesday with an apparent “lone-wolf”...

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Grain Market Bulls are Waking Up

GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 2 cents at $3.54 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a seven-week high early on. The corn bulls have made good headway recently to suggest a “harvest low” is in place. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the corn bulls still have work to do to suggest the fledgling uptrend can be...

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December ICE Coffee Futures: Trading Idea October 22, 2014

December ICE coffee futures a selling opportunity on more price weakness. See on the daily bar chart for December coffee futures that prices are in a steep swoon as the bears have quickly gained downside technical momentum. A move below chart support at Tuesday’s low of $1.9500 would give the bears better downside momentum and it would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price...

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Trading Psychology: Stay Calm When The Fastballs Fly

Trading Psychology: Stay Calm When The Fastballs Fly

A client of mine sent me a bio yesterday on Rod Dedeaux, who was the baseball coach for USC for 45 seasons. Dedeaux was a legendary leader, chalking up more national titles and wins (1332) than any other coach of his day. 200 of his players went on to play professional ball. Dedeaux neither lost his temper nor disrespected or denigrated anyone. He cultivated the ability to befriend,...

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Gold Bulls Could Pause Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Gold Bulls Could Pause Ahead Of Fed Meeting

The gold market has posted impressive price action in the past few weeks in the face of a rising U.S. dollar and in this week's case a major rebound in U.S. stock indices. See Figure 1 below. The gold market made a double bottom a few weeks back at the $1182-83 area from last December. Gold’s rebound, in my view, is largely due to safe-haven buying due to the lack in confidence in fiat...

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Livestock Futures Bulls Hanging Tough

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $1.20 at166.82 today. Prices poked to a new contract high but thenimmediately backed off to close solidly lower and near thesession low. Now, a bearish double-top reversal pattern maybe developing on the daily bar chart. Good follow-throughselling on Wednesday would better suggest such. Bulls stillhave the firm near-term technical advantage. Still,...

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U.S. Stock Index Bulls Regain Upside Momentum

*OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS* The feature in the market place this week has been the sharprebound in the U.S. stock market, following last week’s bigdownside debacle. Several pundits are now proclaiming marketbottoms are in place for the U.S. stock indexes. Mostlyupbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports are adding to a“risk-on” mentality among traders and investors this week.Short covering in the...

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December Canadian Dollar Futures: Trading Idea October 21, 2014

December Canada Dollar Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December Canadian dollar futures that prices are in a solid downtrend and have recently hit a contract low. The bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A move in prices below chart support at Tuesday’s low of .8840 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price...

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Risk Appetite Slowly Returning to Market Place Tuesday

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS There is a bit more risk appetite in the market place Tuesday morning. Apple’s corporate earnings late Monday handily beat the street’s forecast. Meantime, China on Tuesday reported its third-quarter gross domestic product grew by 7.3%, on an annual basis. That figure was slightly better than market expectations but was still the slowest...

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