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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 77 found.

SPX: The Fed To The Rescue … Again

SPX: The Fed To The Rescue … Again

The S&P 500 mini futures (ESH5) got the oversold bounce we were predicting yesterday, thanks to what has become the “new normal” – an unofficial and sometimes covert intervention from the Federal Reserve anytime the market shows signs of faltering. Yesterday it was a closed-door presentation by Fed Chair Janet Yellen to a group of congressional Democrats indicating that there will be no...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: Three Downside Targets

Futures Market Review and Forecast: Three Downside Targets

As I noted yesterday, “another move below the Floor increases the odds of much lower prices (1984 and then 1962).”   The Floor support at 2027 was tested for several hours on Wednesday, but turned into resistance after the FOMC announcement. This puts three levels in play to the downside: 1984, 1963 and 1842. A Note on Volume Profile The histogram on the left side of the chart shows the...

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ESH5: S&P Mini Futures Bust Support, Crash, And Burn

ESH5: S&P Mini Futures Bust Support, Crash, And Burn

Early Wednesday morning, we were leaning long on the S&P500 mini futures (ESH5), hitching our wagon to modestly hopeful technical indicators. The futures didn't fall out of bed in the overnight trading, and the ESH5 clawed back up to the 20/40-day moving average line from the previous day's decline. No real strength, but enough to dull the fear and encourage the greed. By the end of the...

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Soy Bean Counting Toward A Reversal To The Upside

Soy Bean Counting Toward A Reversal To The Upside

Since the release of the January 12th crop report, soy beans have dropped over .85 cents.  The key question is, how much more down side risk is there left?  There is a series of underlining fundamentals that could have both a bullish and bearish effect on the market.  On the bearish side, the trade believes that the late March planting intentions report will show 5% more soybeans will be...

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SPX: Nice Ride, But A Little Wild

SPX: Nice Ride, But A Little Wild

On Monday (Jan. 26), we warned that US equity markets were nervous, and vulnerable to bad news. Tuesday we saw just how vulnerable. What will happen on Wednesday? More of the same is our guess. Lots of volatility, especially around the Fed Open Market Committee minutes, which will be released at 2:00 pm. Despite the selling panic at the start of the day, we remain cautiously bullish. Tuesday...

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Buy The Gold March Spread

Buy The Gold March Spread

As developed nations continue to turn to quantitative easing as the first line of defense against economic malaise, currency alternatives such as gold and silver have apparently reached a bottom.  Since trading at $1798.10 in October 2012, gold futures contracts have traded in a bearish pattern, reaching a low of $1,130.40 last November.  From September 2014 until very recently, the...

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Get Long Dec Corn For Potential Rally

Get Long Dec Corn For Potential Rally

Weekly export sales for corn came in at 818 thousand metric tons versus 387 thousand last week and down 10% on the four week average.  There were two surprises on the report.  One, Japan was absent from the import list.  That is important as they are the largest importer of US corn on a weekly basis.  Due to their shipping proximity and US corn’s current value, we will look for this...

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Swiss Rocket Fuel Blasts Gold Higher

Swiss Rocket Fuel Blasts Gold Higher

Last fall, our reading of the Gold futures chart led us to believe we would see a final decline below $1100 an ounce to establish the bottom that would support a new rally. To be clear, we were – and are – bullish on gold at these levels. But we expected a bit more down before we started to move up. That is still a possibility, but it is starting to look more remote, thanks to a sudden blast...

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Contango, The Oil Play For Today

Contango, The Oil Play For Today

Jonathan Leff (Reuters ) wrote a detailed analysis of the current state of crude oil in the US. In the midst of all the detail is a potential bet, a bet that is almost sure. Back in the dark days of the financial collapse and the Great Recession, crude oil spiked all the way up to $147 per barrel. Much of that was speculation, but a good part of it was the fact that a major surplus developed...

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A Week Of Volatility In Cattle

A Week Of Volatility In Cattle

Last week, January 5th through January 9th, has been one of the most volatile ever experienced in cattle prices. Box-meat, live-cattle, and feeder-cattle futures all experienced huge moves.  The reasons behind the volatility are the packers upped the ante on cattle, and the funds came out of the futures in a big way.  Some suggest we probably are going to have to bring the futures up to meet...

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More Downside To Oil Means More Upside Economically

More Downside To Oil Means More Upside Economically

Well, howdy after a nice weekend, at least for me. Maybe not so for investors and traders, as the market is opening this week on the same negative note it left us on Friday. Apparently, there is residual consternation in the market, or maybe all the technical predictions floating about are becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. No matter, the market will eventually find solid ground. In the...

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We Are Now Suspicious Of The SPX

We Are Now Suspicious Of The SPX

For at least two years, we have been long-term Bulls on the S&P500 large cap index (SPX). Sure, we take short-term positions with the Bears. We are traders, and we don't fall in love with either side, but when it comes to the longer time horizon, we have always called for this rally to continue. That is, until now. Now, there are two items in the SPX chart that are making us question if...

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The Bears Are Coming For Gold

The Bears Are Coming For Gold

For the last few years, radio and TV ads have tooted gold's horn as a safe investment and a hedge against yet another stock market crash. According to one particular commercial, this impending crash is a matter of when, not if.   While gold is often touted as a fear trade, history shows its usefulness seldom extends beyond  that of an effective hyperinflation hedge.  In a world still warding...

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Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Since the peak in June 2013, the price of a barrel of oil has dropped nearly 60% to under $50, and it seems no end is in sight.  Supply continues to exceed demand and that is within a decent economic growth pattern.  Some analysts predict growth could slow sharply in the year ahead, and that would sap demand for crude even more.  Yet, more supply comes online each day as the producers see...

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Fade the Rally in Soybeans

Fade the Rally in Soybeans

Short-term weather concerns in South America, along with continued strong exports, helped spark a fifty-cent rally in soybeans this week. Traders can use this recent rally as a selling opportunity following the January 12th USDA crop report. Despite some dryness in northeast Brazil during the first half of January helping to support the market, the weather concern seems to have offered...

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