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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 107 found.

Negative Interest Rates Set To Propel Stocks To The Stratosphere?

Negative Interest Rates Set To Propel Stocks To The Stratosphere?

Every man must patiently bide his time. He must wait -- not in listless idleness but in constant, steady, cheerful endeavours, always willing and fulfilling and accomplishing his task, that when the occasion comes he may be equal to the occasion. Henry Wadsworth Longfellow  Central bankers wanted to put the fear of God into the masses and to a large degree they have succeeded in doing so;...

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Crude Oil: Should You Hold Your Position Into The Holiday Weekend?

Crude Oil: Should You Hold Your Position Into The Holiday Weekend?

July Crude Oil made another new high for the move today (Thursday, May 26th) trading to 50.21 just before the US open. This is another new high for the year and Crude Oil is at a level not seen since October 2015. Follow through buying from the EIA report yesterday and another disruption in Nigeria set the early tone.   The recent EIA report showed crude inventories declining by 4.22 million...

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Treasury Watch

Treasury Watch

--Several news sources are coincidentally citing debt levels.  WSJ has a big chart outlining consumer debt levels in the US, warning that risks are growing.  However, the household debt obligation ratio is not flashing any warning signals as of now.  In the US the problem is likely to come from the corporate sector, where non-fin corp debt is near a 30 year high at 45% of GDP (Daily Shot). ...

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Crude Oil -Containment Levels Traders Need to Know

Crude Oil -Containment Levels Traders Need to Know

SHORT-TERM (today 5 days out) For Thursday, 49.57 can contain session weakness (assuming an open above), above which 52.30 remains a 2-3 day target. Upside today, 50.91 should contain initial strength, while pushing (especially opening) above 50.91 allows 52.30 intraday, likely to contain buying into early next week. Closing above 52.30 indicates the targeted 54.74 within several more days,...

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Profit From Sell-Off In the Yen

Profit From Sell-Off In the Yen

The Japanese Yen has fallen away from the higher resistance level that we noted for readers here in early April, near 0.009360. If price remains beneath that area, then the Yen should be on track to test or fall beneath the lows of 2015. Such a test could happen later this year, and it may happen again – with lower lows – sometime in 2017. If you have been following the progression of our...

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Profit In The FX Market From Brexit

Profit In The FX Market From Brexit

Many investors in the U.S. are focusing on the November elections, but we have another significant global political event in the next few weeks.   The European Union Referendum, which will be held in the United Kingdom on June 23, 2016 will affect world-wide markets, and especially, the currency markets.   Voters will be asked to vote to “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the...

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Crude Oil Reaching for $50: Now What?

Crude Oil Reaching for $50: Now What?

Crude oil spent time in both January and February this year trading below $30 per barrel.  Price is now closing in on $50 per barrel.  Where will this run higher end?  What are the important price locations for traders to know?  Glad you asked. Click here to watch a video explaining how to read markets using volume at price. Crude has nearby support established at 46.65 on any pullback with...

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Grains Trade Fear Before Fact: Soymeal Alert

Grains Trade Fear Before Fact: Soymeal Alert

The market will always trade fear before fact and that was the case in the soybean market this week especially in soy meal. Tightness concerns for meal due to ongoing weather issues in Argentina have rallied July soymeal futures over 44 percent in the last month. End users have been caught short bought on a global basis and a continued slow harvest advance in Argentina has funds,...

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Long Term Damage - The Energy Report 05/24/16

Long Term Damage - The Energy Report 05/24/16

Oil prices are struggling on short term fundamentals but we continue to get a disturbing outlook for our long term energy future. Weakness enveloped crude oil driving it down for the fourth day in a row on reports of oil disruptions getting back on line, yet a report from Rystad Energy says that global oil discoveries fell to the lowest level in 63 years as oil companies slashed spending on...

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How to Protect Yourself in Range Bound Markets

How to Protect Yourself in Range Bound Markets

If you watch the emini like I do every day then you’ve seen the lack of volatility the past few trading sessions. Yesterday’s trading range was 8.75 points wide not a lot of opportunity for directional day traders. However I’m a firm believer that sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Yesterday was the perfect example of lack of trading opportunities. The ES had absolutely no...

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Rally Nearing an End? CL Technical Analysis | Week of May23rd – 26th

Rally Nearing an End? CL Technical Analysis | Week of May23rd – 26th

The CL technical outlook for last week called for a rally into the $49.20 - $49.75.  The high of the week was $49.55 (July Contract) as oil continued the prolonged rally since hitting the lows in February 2016. Rally Nearing an End? On Thursday, the USD surged to its highest levels since mid-March on the news that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates at their meeting in June....

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Why We Don’t Need A Gold Standard, There Is A Better Alternative

Why We Don’t Need A Gold Standard, There Is A Better Alternative

A highbrow is the kind of person who looks at a sausage and thinks of Picasso.A. P. Herbert The first reaction from the hard money camp would be to state we are insane or that we longer value hard money.  Taking that line of thought would only set you on the wrong track; we are not against hard money or the Gold standard. However, most of those in the hard money camp have a hard time dealing...

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Don't Forget To Roll Your Crude Oil Position Forward

Don't Forget To Roll Your Crude Oil Position Forward

With expiration of the June Crude Oil on Friday May 20th, the most actively traded contract is now the July contract. July Crude Oil traded to 49.56 on Wednesday, May 18th, a new high for the year and a level not seen since October 2015. The strength in Crude faded when the Fed released the minutes from its April meeting. The minutes indicated the Fed is open to raising rates in June as long...

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Crude Oil - Top Technical Levels for 5.19.16

Crude Oil - Top Technical Levels for 5.19.16

SHORT-TERM (today 5 days out) For Thursday, 48.63 can contain session weakness (assuming an open above), 50.56 in reach and likely to contain initial strength, beyond which 51.14 becomes an intraday target likely to contain session strength. A settlement today about 51.14 indicates 53.47 within several days, targeted resistance able to contain strength through next week. Downside today,...

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Copper May Be Back On Declining Trend

Copper May Be Back On Declining Trend

In October, we posted a forecast that copper futures would make a significant bounce before resuming their trending decline. In March, April and May of this year, price tested the channel line harmonic that we had identified as possible resistance, and it has since fallen away strongly. This suggests that the next downward wave may have begun. The overall picture is one of a declining five...

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