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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 86 found.

Surge in VIX Spills into Commodities: A Gift for Gold Option Sellers?

Surge in VIX Spills into Commodities: A Gift for Gold Option Sellers?

Back at the beginning of December, the we advised selling gold calls with the rational that gold prices would have a hard time moving substantially higher in light of a Fed Rate hike (amongst other reasons.) *If you missed this piece, it remains relevant and you can read it on the blog at www.OptionSellers.com/golddec We still feel that gold calls can offer investors some attractive premium...

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The DAX Playbook

The DAX Playbook

The chart with this article is a monthly graph of the German index, aka, the ‘DAX.’ The chart shows the two previous bull and bear markets. Curiously, both bear markets started in the month of March. The DAX is now in the “third drive,” which is a common technical completion pattern. If a third bear market starts from here, it suggests the possibility that a secular, uber-bull market in...

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SPX: Beware the War of 1812

SPX: Beware the War of 1812

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 1880.05 last Friday, down 26.85 points for net weekly loss of 1.40%. Friday was especially brutal, one big red candle than carried the price right back down to the recent support around 1875, extinguishing all the gains made a week earlier, and reminding traders that there is a very big and very empty void below the current price. The number to...

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The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 is an index comprised of the 100 largest Nasdaq stocks by market cap. This cap-weighted index is a well-watched benchmark because it is the Nasdaq’s version of the S&P 500.  I recently discussed the technical criteria for calling a bear market in the S&P 500, which differs from the Nasdaq 100 due to differences in volatility. If the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below the...

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Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?

Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?

Another week and another seven days of conflicting market information. While the domestic unemployment picture lends credence to the Fed’s actions, global economic slack leaves the world second guessing the Fed’s decision. The end result has led to bond spreads foreshadowing a global economic slowdown while the equity markets tank. We’ve written before that the powers that be will do...

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Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Last week’s forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st (Eighth Year Returns) was a perfect hit.  As of last Friday, equities have fallen 261 points since last Monday’s high. Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart. If 30.00 is broken again, my...

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ETF Liquidation Triggers Crude Oil Volatility Spike

ETF Liquidation Triggers Crude Oil Volatility Spike

March Crude Oil traded up to 33.60 on Thursday as the Russian Defense Ministry announced they have evidence the Turkish military is making preparations to invade Syria. The rally stalled however, as reports came in stating Syrian coalition forces have encircled Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. This city is seen as key to restoring President Assad’s control of the country from militants. The...

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Traders: Brace Yourself For Sustained Volatility

Traders: Brace Yourself For Sustained Volatility

To what extent will volatility continue in to February? Market participants remain uncertain.  Numerous indicators point to some level of sustained volatility including price fluctuations in oil, US dollar and other major currencies, macro-economic gauges, and the ever present political climate leading up to the presidential election in the US. Traders and active investors have certainly had...

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ETF Watch: Biotech On The Bid (IBB)

ETF Watch: Biotech On The Bid (IBB)

About 3 weeks ago I wrote an article for Trader Planet entitled: Bye Bye Biotech, with an immediate target for the main Biotech ETF (IBB) of $250 and a 12-18 month target of $175 and then $150. This week IBB hit my first target (the low was $251) and has paused at its Volume Profile Point of Control (VPPOC) at $260. Interestingly the Nasdaq itself is also at its VPPOC (750 day lookback)....

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Oil, Bonds, Currencies, Stocks - The Correlation Conundrum

Oil, Bonds, Currencies, Stocks - The Correlation Conundrum

The Bond and Currency markets are painting a different picture than the Equity market. Watch the Dollar Index it continues to weaken and the Euro is now nearly at 1.12. The Ten Treasury Bond is holding firm around 1.88%. What is this telling me? Well if the ECB and BOJ is in the midst of QE and Negative Rates with no sign of letting up.  This means the bond and currency markets are believing...

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Dow Jones Index Should Trend Downward Through The Year

Dow Jones Index Should Trend Downward Through The Year

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing signs of breakdown, our primary chart scenario suggests that traders should look for downward-trending moves throughout most of 2016. However, we also expect the market to present several opportunities for traders to make missteps. This post offers a big-picture roadmap and identifies some likely targets for the first part of the expected...

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Why Do You Trade?

Why Do You Trade?

Let’s be honest: only a very small number of adventurous individuals would ever think that active trading is a reasonable way to make a living, support a family or manage one’s retirement assets. But when I interview struggling traders they are usually quite convinced that trading is a reasonable venture to undertake and real success, while elusive, is just around the corner. There is a...

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Ignore The Man Behind The Curtain

Ignore The Man Behind The Curtain

The chart below tells you just about all you need to know about the market’s assessment of how many rate hikes are going to come in the year of 2016.  The chart is the one-year Eurodollar spread EDH’16 to EDH’17.  The one-year spread is essentially a reflection of how much higher a forward rate will be as compared to now.  As you can see the spread has collapsed from 91 bps to just 23.5 bps...

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Thin Fundamentals for Corn

Thin Fundamentals for Corn

Bearish side fundamentals are getting thin now.  These include the Ukraine and Argentina holding large inventories of corn at values under U.S. posted prices and private forecasters are starting to come out with their projections for this year’s planted acres.  One forecaster last week projected 89.2 million acres to be planted versus 88.0 last year. However bullish side fundamentals are...

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Gold Poised To Continue Rally

Gold Poised To Continue Rally

Gold has perked up since the turn of the New Year and the shiny metal remains in a position to continue its shining performance. Gold has paused upon the touch to the next upside target at 1129.6 – 1136.  On any move over this zone, the next higher resistance / target is at 1162.5 – 1179.4.  There is nearby support established at 1092.5 – 1103.5 on any pullback and only a decline back below...

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