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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook for May 2nd – 6th

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook for May 2nd – 6th

Crude oil prices rose to yearly highs before pulling back after a survey from Reuters on Friday showed that OPEC production in April reached near-record highs, reiterating concerns related to the massive supply glut on global energy markets. On Friday a Reuters report cited that OPEC increased production by over 170,000 barrels per day.  Iranian output contributed to this increase as...

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Gold- Elliott Wave Analysis Very Revealing

Gold- Elliott Wave Analysis Very Revealing

Gold pushed a lot higher than I had expected it to this week, breaching the price at the top of wave 'a' up in green. I am still an unbeliever in this rally. and I have labelled the medium term count to reflect that. This week’s action is being viewed as an expanded flat correction in wave B green. The price action over the last few weeks is utterly corrective in nature and seems unfinished....

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Silver Alert: Hunting For Value

Silver Alert: Hunting For Value

As you may have noticed, we’ve been writing about our expectations of precious metals to head lower. While clearly, that hasn’t worked out for us the past week or so, there are two important points to consider. First, there’s always another move. Never let the fear of missing a trade force you into a position you’re uncomfortable with. You’ll screw it up, eventually. It’s simply the law of...

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What The Puerto Rico Debt Default Means For US Stocks

What The Puerto Rico Debt Default Means For US Stocks

Puerto Rico defaulted on its debt yesterday, the first of what will be a series of defaults for the US territory. The effect on US equities – so far – has been invisible to the naked eye. Puerto Rico is America's Greece: burdened by a debt it has no hope of repaying, and unable to get a deal with its creditors because there is no legal structure available to declare bankruptcy, Congress is...

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Rigs and Rain: The Energy Report 4/29/16

Rigs and Rain: The Energy Report 4/29/16

Gulfport, Mississippi has declared a state of emergency because of heavy rain and widespread flooding in what is being called the worst flooding since Hurricane Katrina. The AP reported that Gulfport emergency managers say 5 to 12 inches of rain fell in the city during a thunderstorm yesterday. Flooding may raise the risk of shutting down the Mississippi, perhaps slowing the movement of...

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Buy Crude Oil Dips: Target $50 Barrel

Buy Crude Oil Dips: Target $50 Barrel

June Crude Oil continued its trek higher today (Thursday, April 28) rebounding off its overnight low of 44.94 and making a new high at 46.14. Traders reacted to a plunging US dollar as it broke down through the 94.00 mark and closed near the April lows of 93.62 at 93.725. The Dollar fell as the Japanese Central Bank shocked the market by leaving interest rates alone after implying last week...

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Can't Have a 3 Standard Deviation Move Every Day

Can't Have a 3 Standard Deviation Move Every Day

Yields fell after the FOMC meeting, with the ten year treasury -7.5 bps to 185.6, however, the Bank of Japan's inaction is a much larger influence on prices across the board this morning.  US yields have pushed even lower as the Nikkei fell 3.6% and $/yen traded in the low 108 handle, near new lows.  These moves are likely to cause reverberations and a possible risk-off episode across asset...

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Options Play: Strangle The Euro To Collect Premium

Options Play: Strangle The Euro To Collect Premium

The Euro has been in search of a sweet spot over recent weeks. The Brexit vote lies down the road (June 23rd) a bit, but it is still on everyone’s mind. The ECB left rates alone (as expected) at their most recent meeting and Mario Draghi has spent recent days defending ECB policy. “Our policy is working, but we must be patient. “ Mr. Draghi also hinted that an interest rate hike “would be...

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Why The Australian Dollar Matters Now

Why The Australian Dollar Matters Now

In January and again in April, we showed we showed a potentially bearish path into the middle of 2016 and beyond for Australian stocks – a decline that we believe is linked to lowered expectations for China's economy and trade. Consistent with that view, the Australian Dollar appears ready to make a similar decline during the next year or longer. In the context of a larger decline that began...

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Profit From The Tug Of War In Gold Now

Profit From The Tug Of War In Gold Now

Gold prices have been range bound for 2 months but a golden opportunity may be just around the corner. Gold prices have been oscillating between the high-volume area resistance zone at 1249.8 – 1271.9 and the short-term high-volume area support at 1224.  A move beyond either of these zones would be a signal that the bulls or bears had gained the upper hand. Click here to watch a video...

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US Grains: Demand Driving Beans

US Grains: Demand Driving Beans

Demand continues to support beans.  The weekly export sales report showed 407 thousand metric tons was sold last week up 7 percent from the week prior and up 15 percent from the four week average.  China was in for 180 thousand of the total.  New crop sales for 2016-17 were 339 thousand metric tons with China in for 132 of the total.  A year ago this time we were running deficits to ration...

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Oil Weekly Technical Outlook for April 25th – April 29th

Oil Weekly Technical Outlook for April 25th – April 29th

Oil prices rose 8.3% for the week ending April 22nd.  As we head in to the next week there in increasing ideas that the worst is over and that price rebalancing is beginning to occur.  Some analysts still believe that the market will still a distance away from rebalancing. "While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside ... we believe that it is not yet driven by a...

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Strong Argument: Precious Metals Headed Lower

Strong Argument: Precious Metals Headed Lower

Our fundamental premise in trading the commodity markets is that the commercial traders, in this case, the miners and the end users of the commodity, know that commodity’s value better than anyone else. If not individually, at least, collectively. Therefore, our methodology is based upon selectively following the commercial trader population. This week, we’ll discuss their actions in gold,...

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Warning: This Stock Bull Is The Second Longest In History

Warning: This Stock Bull Is The Second Longest In History

This week the SPX will become the second longest bull market in history. What happens next? The S&P 500 cash index (SPX) closed at 2091.58 last Friday, up 10.85 points for a net weekly gain of 0.52%. That was hardly a break-out-the-bubbly rally. But it carried the large cap index to a new high for the year – again – and to a level that hasn’t been seen since the start of November. The...

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Technical Analysis of Trends on Stock Charts

Technical Analysis of Trends on Stock Charts

A major area of confusion for Technical Traders is the analysis of Trends on stock charts. Most traders have been taught that the Stock Market trends up, down, or is “trendless.” There are actually distinctly 5 Trends, and within those trends are 5 Trendline Patterns. Today the discussion will be on understanding the 5 Trends, which are best identified on 3 Day View or Weekly View charts....

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