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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 136 found.

E-mini- Technical Turnaround Tuesday?

E-mini- Technical Turnaround Tuesday?

Yesterday Monday the S&P500 mini-futures, the ES, continued moving down extending the weakness we saw in Friday’s closing movement. It spent most of the day in decline, and only the now customary 3:00 pm ramp-a-thon moved it off the lows and allowed it to close respectably, at 2090.50, eight points below the previous close. It also closed below the 20/40-day moving averages. The one ray...

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SPX -What Monday's Drop Tells US

SPX -What Monday's Drop Tells US

In the 07/20/15 Trader Planet article, I mentioned that we had some bullish sentiment extremes and to expect lower. The SPX proceeded to drop 70 points in 7 days and made a low with some bearish sentiment extremes and now remains in a neutral trading environment when looking through an investor sentiment window. The SPX has been trading within the 2040-2134 range for the last 3 months and...

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US Stocks: Trade From The Long Side

US Stocks: Trade From The Long Side

In my last market update (7/20) I characterized the 300+ point rally in the NQ as “unsustainable.” My initial target was 4492 and we hit 4497 on 7/28. This downside forecast was not due to any particular bearishness on my part. By nature, I’m actually more bullish than bearish, and in my own trading I prefer to trade from the long side. Nevertheless, the Volume Profile chart showed very...

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US Stocks: Fear Index Is At Record Lows

US Stocks: Fear Index Is At Record Lows

There goes July. Did anybody notice? June started high and ended low. July started low and ended high. Except for the color of the candles on the chart, there wasn’t much to chose between them ... and not much to remember them by. The US equity market, at least as represented by the Standard and Poor 500  (SPX), has now spent the first seven months of the year drifting along near the top of...

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10-Year Treasury Note Faces Stiff Resistance

10-Year Treasury Note Faces Stiff Resistance

We’ve begun to notice an anomaly within the interest rate futures where the volatility of the 10-Year Treasury Note is significantly higher than both shorter and longer dated maturities. Rather than attempting to answer why this may be, we’d rather focus on the trading opportunity it presents both within the interest rate sector and as an outright speculative trade. First, let’s look at some...

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The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

This week’s commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index. The July 27 commentary (US Stocks Are Near A Low: Here's Why) mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why “a tradable low is very close”. Indeed, last week’s low was seen that day.  The next...

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US Stocks: Brace For Potential Short Squeeze

US Stocks: Brace For Potential Short Squeeze

The Street assumed that the Fed's silence on raising interest rates in 2015 means no rate hike this year. That may not be true, but it put the S&P500 mini-futures (ES) back into a bullish cycle and helped it hold the price above the key 2100 psychology line. The futures pretty much duplicated Wednesday’s action: dropped sharply from the overnight high and made a low one point above...

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Trading Psychology: Men, We Need To Talk

Trading Psychology: Men, We Need To Talk

About a month ago I got a call from a guy, fairly new to e-mini trading, who had just taken a 4-figure loss in one day. The set-back shocked him, but he was still up 30% in his account and after talking to me he felt better. Frankly, I was impressed by his results because his method was very simple (one moving average) and yet he was doing quite well in a difficult market. Some people really...

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US Stocks Poised For Follow Through Gains

US Stocks Poised For Follow Through Gains

The S&P500 mini-futures opened flat yesterday, but came to life as the day got closer to the Fed interest rate announcement at 2:00 p.m. After some wide fast moves, the futures settled down and closed at 2101.50, above the important 2100 level for the first time since this decline began, and about 14 points above the prior close. A good day for the Bulls. The impetus for this irrational...

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Fed Meeting Today: What You Need To Know

Fed Meeting Today: What You Need To Know

The S&P500 mini-futures (ESU5) had a nice little bounce yesterday, finishing at 2087.25, some 23 points above the previous close. The futures gained 20 points in the overnight trading, gave most of it back at the day session open, then climbed steadily throughout the day to a strong close near the high of the day. Terrific. So the decline is over and we can all go back to dreaming about...

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Why Is The US Dollar In The Doldrums?

Why Is The US Dollar In The Doldrums?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). On Tuesday pundits were aflutter because the dollar had an up day, pointing to expectations that the Fed would soon clarify its intentions to raise rates. Technically, Tuesday was a “star” with a very small range, and inside bar which closed well below Monday’s open. It was indicative, at most,...

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Gold Could Drop 50% From Its 2011 High

Gold Could Drop 50% From Its 2011 High

Gold peaked at just above $1900/oz back in 2011.  Since then it has been working lower in fits and spurts and is now more than 40% off those peak prices. Looking at a weekly continuous chart of gold futures, it’s easy to see how gold has repeatedly declined into zones of support (as defined by the volume profile) and found buyers, however never enough to turn the trend of prices back to the...

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August Traditionally Is Seasonal Boon For Gold

August Traditionally Is Seasonal Boon For Gold

Among the headwinds that countervail any ascent in Gold was the disappointing news a few weeks ago that China’s Gold reserves had only rose 57 percent in a span of 6 years. I wrote a day after the data was released from the Peoples Bank of China that this could be some type of deception by the Chinese government to alter the perception that they weren’t building their Gold reserves fast...

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Blood On Wall Street: Chinese Crash Impacts US

Blood On Wall Street: Chinese Crash Impacts US

The S&P500 mini-futures (ES) continued to swoon Monday after the Chinese stock market took another knockout punch from panicky investors, many of whom are using borrowed money to bet that the central government will not allow the stock market to sink. The Shanghai composite index rose 68% from February to June; it has since given back about 70% of that increase, and now stands about 20%...

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Lock In Profit On Short Euro Trade

Lock In Profit On Short Euro Trade

Yesterday, the euro rallied on both short covering on bearish euro bets and a strong German IFO Business climate reading.  The IFO survey for July printed a 108.0 reading, better than the 107.6 forecast.  If data continues to improve from Europe’s largest economy, we could see the euro continue to tentatively higher.    Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart shows the double-top pattern...

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