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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 176 found.

December Japanese Yen Futures: Trading Idea October 1, 2014

December Japanese Yen Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December Japanese yen futures that prices are in a strong downtrend and hit a new contract low on Wednesday. Bears are in full technical command and more downside price pressure is likely in the near term. A move below chart support at Wednsday morning’s low of .9088 would become a...

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Supply Side Dominates In Corn

Supply Side Dominates In Corn

There were two key reports the first two days of this week.  Monday’s crop condition report and Tuesday’s U.S. Grain Stocks quarterly report.  The News Let’s cover the September stocks and small grains summary first. The report was viewed as mixed, but in the grand scheme of things not all that eventful. Sep 1 corn stocks were pegged at 1,236 million bushels, 55 million above expectations....

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Trading Psychology: Complexity Theory Says More Is Different

Trading Psychology: Complexity Theory Says More Is Different

Last week I wrote an article on why Bull Markets can be dangerous. Simply put, they often lull us into complacency and tempt us to ignore standard risk controls. Then, when volatility increases, we are not prepared for the rug to move and the walls to shake. There’s a principle in Complexity Theory that says: More is different. It means that in complex dynamic systems, arithmetic increases...

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Grain Market Bears Not Yet Ready to Hibernate

GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 5 3/4 cents at $3.20 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another contract and four-year low today. Prices also closed at a technically bearish monthly and quarterly low close today. The market was also pressured by a bearish USDA quarterly grain stocks report. The key “outside markets” were also bearish today as the U.S. dollar index...

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Ecconomic Report Pace Picks Up Starting Wednesday

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The economic report pace picks up steam starting Wednesday, with the highlight of the week being Friday’s U.S. employment report. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, the global...

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December E-Mini S&P Futures: Trading Idea September 30, 2014

December E-Mini S&P Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for the December E-mini S&P futures that prices have backed down from the recent high, and a rare and bearish broadening pattern has formed. These patterns are suggestive of market tops being in place. The bears are fading. A move below chart support at Monday morning’s low of...

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Natural Gas Breaks Out

Natural Gas Breaks Out

If you can stomach the risk of an inherently risky market, natural gas futures are in the process of breaking out from a platform base. What's more, a lack of any technical resistance overhead heightens the probability of follow-through buying in the coming weeks. Chart Picture I didn't add any indicators to this chart because the price action alone tells the story. From July through...

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U.S. Treasuries Bulls Have Momentum

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 20/32 at 138 8/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high today. Safe-haven buying was seen. The bulls have upside technical momentum. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 135 13/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls...

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U.S. Dollar Bulls Flexing their Muscles

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS Tuesday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter. It’s an extra important trading day from a technical perspective. It’s technically significant when a market closes at a weekly, monthly or quarterly high or low close on the last day of the aforementioned periods. There are several markets that are in a position to do such...

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December Euro Currency Futures: Trading Idea September 29, 2014

December Euro Currency Futures Another Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December Euro currency futures that prices remain in a strong downtrend and last week hit a contract and 14-month low. The bears continue to have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. History shows that trends in currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting...

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US Dollar Breakout: End To Stock Bull, Renewed Commodity Bear

US Dollar Breakout: End To Stock Bull, Renewed Commodity Bear

It seems nothing can stop the U.S. dollar. Since its low in April it has closed higher in four out of five months and is up almost 8.00% since then.  While a run like that is in need of a rest there are some big issues that need to be considered now. DXY broke out of a six-year triangle this month. Breaking to the upside from a triangle is bullish. That triangle is essentially a six-year...

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SPX: They Won't Ring A Bell At The Top

SPX: They Won't Ring A Bell At The Top

My sense is that a great many speculators are simultaneously imagining some clear exit signal, or the ability to act on some “tight stop” ... History teaches that the market doesn’t offer executable opportunities for an entire speculative crowd to exit with paper profits intact. Hence what we call the Exit Rule for Bubbles: you only get out if you panic before everyone else does. --John...

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Silver Market Vulnerable To Short Covering Rally

Silver Market Vulnerable To Short Covering Rally

The U.S. Dollar index has rallied nearly 3.5% in September and approximately 7.25% since July 1. The dollar’s strength along with an absence of inflation and flagging commodity markets has continued to push money into the equities’ sector however; deeper research suggests that we may be nearer a tipping point for a reversal than we are for these trends to continue unabated. Specifically,...

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Protesting in Hong Kong Being Watched Carefully Monday

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS China is celebrating a week-long national holiday this week, which could make for quieter trading in many markets. The market place is also keeping a wary eye on a big pro-democracy demonstration presently occurring in Hong Kong. There was another downbeat economic report coming out of the European Union Monday. The EU’s Economic...

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December ICE Coffee Futures: Trading Idea September 26, 2014

December ICE Coffee Another Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December ICE coffee futures that prices this week popped higher but the gains were quickly erased, as the bears continue to have the overall near-term technical advantage. A move in prices below solid chart support at this month’s low of 1.7640 would give the bears better downside momentum...

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