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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 94 found.

Speed Zone Ahead

Speed Zone Ahead

The precipitous decline in the NQ on Wednesday (3/25) created a speed zone that the market is now entering from below. The principle of the speed zone is simple – a market that falls quickly can rise just as quickly. This is especially true in futures markets where mean reversion is the primary trader orientation.    Because the 4210 area (not shown), which is the Volume Profile Point of...

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SPX: Marking Time …

SPX: Marking Time …

Last week The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2061.02 on Friday, down 47 points for a net weekly loss of 2.23%. That's the loss from close to close, but the SPX also moved from a high at 2114 to a low at 2045, a decline of 69 points, before we saw a little bounce on Friday (Mar. 27). In effect, the market gave back almost all the gain it made on the surge from the Fed's dovish...

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ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

Yesterday The SP500 mini futures (ESM5) sold off sharply in overnight trading before yesterday's open (Mar. 26), but the 135-day moving average line, which has supported the futures for about four months now, held again, and provided a little bounce after the regular session opened. During regular trading hours, the ES made a strong push up and traded in positive territory for a while. But,...

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Date with Destiny

Date with Destiny

A capitulatory opening gap down on Thursday was repaired after our initial 4285 target was attained (see yesterday’s forecast). The “trick” with using Volume Profile effectively is to experiment with look-back periods in order to get a semi-Gaussian distribution. That means a volume distribution with a clear central peak and “shoulders” on either side. The 90-day look back in the NQ does the...

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ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) had a strong down day yesterday (Mar. 25) and settled at the bottom of the daily range again, the third day this week that it has failed to show a late-afternoon rally. The futures closed at 2053.75, 31 points below the previous close, on heavier volume. The ES moved  moved step-by-step to test each of the breakout points established by last...

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Market Review and Forecast: Soaking Wet

Market Review and Forecast: Soaking Wet

I forecast “a little more rain,” but traders on Wednesday encountered a hurricane of selling. And I don’t think it is over. Yesterday, I published a Volume Profile chart of the day session in the Nasdaq Futures to show the gaps, which act as targets in more serious corrections. The next gap to fill is at 4314.75, but the two more lie nearby at 4292 and 4210 (not shown on this chart). While a...

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Channel Gold Higher

Channel Gold Higher

Gold futures moved up a fifth straight session to end at a near three-week high on Tuesday, with traders opting for the safe haven appeal of the precious metal as equities in the U.S. ticked lower amid continued worries over Greece's financial woes. Since the Fed announcement, the Dollar has been under duress while Gold has rallied mostly due to heavy short-covering in the market. Looking...

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ESM5: Breakouts To Be Tested While Shorts Scamper to Cover Positions

ESM5: Breakouts To Be Tested While Shorts Scamper to Cover Positions

Yesterday The S&P500 mini-futures (ESM5) closed at 2085.00 yesterday (Mar. 24) down 10 points from the previous close on light volume. For the second day in a row, the Plunge Protection Team failed to rescue the Bulls, who pushed the futures up to the support-turned-resistance at 2100 in the morning session, then watched glumly as the market went into an unremitting decline for the rest...

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Market Review and Forecast: A Little More Rain

Market Review and Forecast: A Little More Rain

As noted yesterday, the stage was set for a pullback in the major indices. The Nasdaq 100 behaved much better than the large caps, however, and the Small Caps were actually up on the day. This bodes well for a continuation higher after some obligatory housekeeping. This is a Volume Profile chart of the day session in the Nasdaq Futures, to show the gaps. Corrections in the indices in an...

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ESM5: Long Periods Of Boredom Punctuated By Moments Of Panic

ESM5: Long Periods Of Boredom Punctuated By Moments Of Panic

Yesterday After the hurly-burly of Quad Witching Week, Monday's price action (Mar. 23) was almost tranquil – until the last hour. The futures recovered most of the losses from Friday's slam-the-close finish in the overnight trading, and all of the loss before the first hour was out. After that, there was excitement in other markets, but the futures traded inside a three-point range on volume...

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SPX- Hangover Stage Approaching

SPX- Hangover Stage Approaching

The SPX (S&P 500 Index) as well as every index, has been on a face-ripping, short-covering rally since the Fed removed the key word “patience” from their vocabulary last Wednesday.  It was the only thing the financial media could talk about – will the Fed remove the word “patience” or not?  And all of that talk was nothing but hype.  The SPX is following our turn dates, and it moved...

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Market Review and Forecast: Prepare For A Pullback

Market Review and Forecast: Prepare For A Pullback

Despite a .82% drop in the Dollar Index, the major U.S. indices could not hold on to gains on Monday. That’s not good news for the bulls. The small caps are fully overbought and over extended … and Biotech has started to correct, as predicted yesterday. This is an area in the S&P and Dow where sellers have dominated in the past and I expect some profit taking here. Consequently, look for...

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SPX: Dancing To The Fed's Tune

SPX: Dancing To The Fed's Tune

Last Week The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2108.10 on  Friday, up 55 points for a weekly net gain of 2.68% and within sight of the all-time high made in February.  The NASDAQ had a similar rally. It closed above 5000 for the first time in 15 years, just one or two hard pushes below the high made in the year 2000. Heady stuff. The proximate cause of all this heavy breathing was a...

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Market Review and Forecast: Steady as She Goes

Market Review and Forecast: Steady as She Goes

The Nasdaq 100 posted a .46% gain on Friday, which was equal to the S&P 500 in percentage terms, but less than the Dow (.94%) or the Small Caps (1.09%). The Dow was able to rally due to a 1.34% drop in the US Dollar Index. The Dollar Index is likely to run 20% higher this year, however, which will generate headwinds for the mainstream large caps, but should not hurt the more speculative...

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ESM5: After Wednesday's Fireworks, It Was So Quiet Even The Algos Were Bored

ESM5: After Wednesday's Fireworks, It Was So Quiet Even The Algos Were Bored

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini futures (ESM5) had a small pullback yesterday (Mar. 19) while the market digested Wednesday's monster 45-point rally. The June contract closed at 2081.50, about 10 points below the previous close. The futures drooped in overnight trading, but the Bulls tried to move it up after the open and got as far as 2089.50 in the first hour. But the move failed to reach...

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