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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 118 found.

US Stocks: Don't Buy The Dips, Sell The Rips

US Stocks: Don't Buy The Dips, Sell The Rips

It started so well. The S&P500 mini futures (ES) climbed solidly in overnight trading Wednesday night. No bad news from China, because Chinese markets were closed. The Central Bankers in Europe were puffing up Quantitative Easing. Nobody declared war. The ES bounced 40 points from the previous close. And then, and after all the scheduled US economic reports were released, the price...

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What Traders Are Watching for the Month of September?

What Traders Are Watching for the Month of September?

For those traders who have seen their share of market gyrations, August certainly provided no lack of volatility.  Adding to market volatility is the ever increasing amount of rhetoric and punditry in both the economic and market sentiment category.  Today’s employments numbers, we are certain, will provide a bit of fuel for either camp of sentiment analysis.  Underpinning the market...

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Fasten Your Seatbelt: The Stock Volatility Isn't Over Yet

Fasten Your Seatbelt: The Stock Volatility Isn't Over Yet

A few weeks back I wrote how I felt that this August had a different feeling than usual. Little did I know what was in store. End of summer, Europe on traditional holiday, tend to bring slow markets and long days with them.  Obviously this year was a just a little bit different. To say the last two weeks have been volatile is a just a bit of an understatement. Some of the moves we saw last...

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Time To Jump Back Into The Markets?

Time To Jump Back Into The Markets?

Following up on my piece last week Is Another GFC Starting Now?, a quick V shaped recovery eventuated, only to give most of the gains back. Whether you decide to enter the markets now will depend on the type of investor you actually are. For me, I am both a traditional ‘Value’ investor as well as a ‘Growth’ investor as I have created two different portfolios. The difference? As a value...

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Play Both Sides Of The Gold Market With A Strangle

Play Both Sides Of The Gold Market With A Strangle

Most of Gold’s losses from last week came on the heels of wild gyrations in the stock market last Monday and Tuesday which at one point had the Dow down over 1000 points in trading on Monday before global bourses recovered later in the week. The Gold market was also assessing comments on policy normalization from Fed officials attending the Aug. 27-29 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Two top...

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It’s China, Not The Employment Data

It’s China, Not The Employment Data

At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual.    -Stanley Fischer, from his Jackson Hole speech. The World Series!  A few times I have been around non-Americans who sort of chuckle at that phrase, because it has nothing to do with the world, it’s purely American.  In a sense, the...

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Could Big Economic Data Jolt Stocks This Week?

Could Big Economic Data Jolt Stocks This Week?

The bounce from last week’s awesome destruction in the S&P500 mini-futures (ES) stalled Monday at the 10-day moving average line, the first of the resistance levels we identified in our weekend report. The futures closed at 1969.25, down 20.50 points for the day and 129.25 points for the month, the biggest monthly loss in five years. Fear of slow growth in China continues to haunt many...

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US Stocks Drop Overnight On China Rumors

US Stocks Drop Overnight On China Rumors

These are interesting times in the markets. In the course of two weeks the S&P500, the large cap index for US equities, has had both the biggest one-day drop and the biggest one-day rally since 2011. In a market where, until now, the range for the week was typically about 75 points, we have seen declines and rallies that moved that far in a couple of hours. On Friday the SPX closed at...

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Pick Low Hanging Fruit To Profit: Here's How

Pick Low Hanging Fruit To Profit: Here's How

The bulk of our analysis focuses on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report. This report tracks the large position holders in every market broken down by, managed money, hedgers, index traders and small speculators. There are many ways to slice and parse this data.   We’ve found most of the low hanging fruit can be plucked using a simple combination of...

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The Shemitah Cycle: Is Another Crash Lurking?

The Shemitah Cycle: Is Another Crash Lurking?

Meaning the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, the end of the past several Shemitahs have brought immense financial hardships to the world. The 1987 crash on Wall St. happened during Shemitah. The bond market was massacred in 1994. The 9/11 terror attacks happened in 2001 and the global economic crisis occurred in 2008. The Shemitah Year is the seventh year of the...

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How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

The Nicholas Cage film Next is about a guy who can see two minutes into the future. He works as a Las Vegas magician and makes extra money quietly at the blackjack table.   As traders and investors, we would love to be able to see around the corner of time, especially during volatile periods. Since we can’t, when money is at risk, we tend to become fortune tellers and use our intuition to...

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Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is talk of another GFC a reality, or just ridiculous speculation with no foundation whatsoever? Recently I wrote a very well received piece on the recent Greek Debt Crisis where I looked at the cold hard facts when the media went all crazy about a potential oncoming European Crisis, “Will A Greek Exit Trigger Another European Crisis?” It seems like we need to revisit this crisis topic all...

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Protect Your Capital From Wild Stock Swings

Protect Your Capital From Wild Stock Swings

After a strong bounce in the overnight trading, the ES found resistance on Tuesday around Monday's high area. But Tuesday’s rally failed later in the day when a new sell-off began after lunch. At the end the ES closed at 1873.50, or 2.25 points above the previous close. That close just about at the same level as Monday might give you the impression the market is settling down a little. The...

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US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). Clearly markets have been declining as the drop in demand in China has finally hit hard. It’s easy to sustain robust growth from a low base, but as an economy grows, that becomes more difficult, as China’s machinations show. The spillover to the Dow Jones Index has been evident since mid-May as...

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Has The Corn Market Found A Floor?

Has The Corn Market Found A Floor?

The latest weekly crop condition ratings update for Corn showed that 69 percent of the crop came in good to excellent condition unchanged on the week and down from 73% last year. The ten year average for this time of year comes in at 58 percent. Recent crop tours, a 20 to30 percent drop in Argentinean planted acreage, and lower than expected EU yield estimates have been all factors that have...

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