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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 90 found.

8 Ways Traders Can Make Sense of Social Media "Noise"

8 Ways Traders Can Make Sense of Social Media "Noise"

Considering the average trader, advisor, and investor has a slew of information to sift through on a daily basis, one of the key components is to have the capability of understanding  the concept of usable information versus bits of useless data.  The most dynamic aspects to any trading day or week for any professional or part time market participants is spending the time to isolate elements...

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Biotech: One More Time

Biotech: One More Time

Although I have much lower downside targets ($175 and $150), I’ve been periodically bullish about the Biotech ETF (including last week), expecting an oversold bounce… but my timing has been off. It’s always risky to forecast bounces in a bear market, because the force of fear is much greater than the force of greed. Nevertheless, once again, I’m going to this well. I believe the Nasdaq is...

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Is Crude Oil Finally Poised To Bounce?

Is Crude Oil Finally Poised To Bounce?

 March Crude Oil made another new low today as it continues its march lower. Reuters reported that Phillips 66 dumped crude oil for immediate delivery on Wednesday signaling a worsening oversupply situation in Cushing, Oklahoma. Futures responded by trading below the 27.00 level, declining to 26.22, before a short covering rally into the start of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the...

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On Longer-Term Charts, Consider Buying Dips In Gold

On Longer-Term Charts, Consider Buying Dips In Gold

Persistent weakness in precious metals has thrown a lot of traders off the trades since 2012. We admit that the pattern has been challenging to count, even though we have written about several good trade entries. This post gives a big-picture update to our Elliot wave analysis for gold futures, and it shows why longer-range traders should be looking for opportunities to buy at the dips....

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What Does Yellen's Speech Mean for Stocks Now?

What Does Yellen's Speech Mean for Stocks Now?

It’s the second first full week of February and the roller coaster ride continues. The volatility in the equity markets has also shown up in the U.S. Dollar Index and FX markets. The Chinese markets may be sleeping during their New Year’s celebrations, but the rest of the world markets are alive and kicking. On Wednesday Chair Yellen gave her semi-annual monetary report in front of the House...

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Bad Habits

Bad Habits

Based on a simple trend following method I recently outlined for Trader Planet readers using the monthly chart of the S&P 500 (with a trend line and a 13-ema), U.S. equities have entered a confirmed bear market. The problem isn’t just that. Most bourses worldwide are already down more than 20% from their peaks. Not just mendacious China, but Germany, France, Japan, the U.K., plus the...

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Gold: An Inverse Trade With Equities

Gold: An Inverse Trade With Equities

Precious metals rallied sharply late last week and through Monday’s session in the face of significant equity losses. While plunging equity markets offer a “risk off” mood that drove investors into the precious metals sector most notably into Gold and silver, that same reaction could reverse itself if Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of Congress is seen as dovish. However should Yellen’s...

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Illusory Economic Recovery Supported By Hot Money

Illusory Economic Recovery Supported By Hot Money

Is this economic recovery real? Well if you base your observations on how far the Dow has risen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and on the B.S statistics the BLS puts out, the answer would be a yes. However, if you do just a little cursory digging, you will spot that this economic recovery is nothing but a grand illusion. The following factors clearly prove that this recovery is not...

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Traders Brace Yourself: The S&P 500 Is Ready To Crack

Traders Brace Yourself: The S&P 500 Is Ready To Crack

The S&P 500 is threatening a breach of the high-volume support zone first tested in October of last year at 1820 – 1880.  This zone remains support however the re-visit of this zone is a bearish development with the odds of an eventual breach most likely.  A breach of support would open the door for an accelerating decline.  The next lower target / support is at 1625 – 1704.  In such a...

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Surge in VIX Spills into Commodities: A Gift for Gold Option Sellers?

Surge in VIX Spills into Commodities: A Gift for Gold Option Sellers?

Back at the beginning of December, the we advised selling gold calls with the rational that gold prices would have a hard time moving substantially higher in light of a Fed Rate hike (amongst other reasons.) *If you missed this piece, it remains relevant and you can read it on the blog at www.OptionSellers.com/golddec We still feel that gold calls can offer investors some attractive premium...

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The DAX Playbook

The DAX Playbook

The chart with this article is a monthly graph of the German index, aka, the ‘DAX.’ The chart shows the two previous bull and bear markets. Curiously, both bear markets started in the month of March. The DAX is now in the “third drive,” which is a common technical completion pattern. If a third bear market starts from here, it suggests the possibility that a secular, uber-bull market in...

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SPX: Beware the War of 1812

SPX: Beware the War of 1812

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 1880.05 last Friday, down 26.85 points for net weekly loss of 1.40%. Friday was especially brutal, one big red candle than carried the price right back down to the recent support around 1875, extinguishing all the gains made a week earlier, and reminding traders that there is a very big and very empty void below the current price. The number to...

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The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 is an index comprised of the 100 largest Nasdaq stocks by market cap. This cap-weighted index is a well-watched benchmark because it is the Nasdaq’s version of the S&P 500.  I recently discussed the technical criteria for calling a bear market in the S&P 500, which differs from the Nasdaq 100 due to differences in volatility. If the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below the...

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Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?

Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?

Another week and another seven days of conflicting market information. While the domestic unemployment picture lends credence to the Fed’s actions, global economic slack leaves the world second guessing the Fed’s decision. The end result has led to bond spreads foreshadowing a global economic slowdown while the equity markets tank. We’ve written before that the powers that be will do...

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Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Last week’s forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st (Eighth Year Returns) was a perfect hit.  As of last Friday, equities have fallen 261 points since last Monday’s high. Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart. If 30.00 is broken again, my...

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