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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 139 found.

Brace For More Stock Market Volatility

Brace For More Stock Market Volatility

Last week Well, it was fun while it lasted. The S&P500, the large-cap index, had a nice little mid-summer rally going at the start of the week, up about 90 points in eight days, moving from the low end of the three-month channel to make a two-month high last Monday, just a couple of points below the all-time record. Sweet summer. And then it fell apart. There were new concerns, based not...

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Attention: Gold Is Ripe For A Reversal

Attention: Gold Is Ripe For A Reversal

We began discussing the growing imbalance in the gold market here, two weeks ago in, “ Gold Alert: Big Spec Short Position Seen.” The expectation in a situation like this is for a sharp market reversal higher. This would punish the newly short small speculators and prove the commercial traders correct in their assumption that gold has fallen below its fair value on the open market. Clearly,...

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Selling Has Been Fast And Furious In Metals

Selling Has Been Fast And Furious In Metals

Hi traders from all over the world! How are you doing? I hope you are ready for a most exceptional and exciting week ahead.   I want to give you a quick overview and glance at METALS this week to give you an idea of what I’m thinking.   I am bearish on Silver and Gold for the next few weeks actually. There has been some serious selling in both the SLV and GLD ETFs.  The selling has been...

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Is Gold Dead? Timing The Top In US Stocks

Is Gold Dead? Timing The Top In US Stocks

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was originally created in November of 2004, when the fund was listed under the name StreetTRACKS Gold Shares on the New York Stock Exchange. It was sponsored by State Street Global Advisors and the World Gold Council. Shares have traded under the SPDR name since May of 2008. Unlike most other commodity ETFs, which use futures contracts, the fund is a trust and holds...

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How Traders Can Survive In Today's Techno World

How Traders Can Survive In Today's Techno World

Information and the inherent volatility of the markets has been a staple of the industry for centuries.  The major shift within capital markets is the speed of information delivery and the unpredictable nature of the market reaction to the underlying knowledge of the subject matter.  No longer can a trader or investor rely upon the notion that information is disseminated orderly and...

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Weak Earnings Murder US Stock Prices

Weak Earnings Murder US Stock Prices

The second quarter earnings season isn’t working very well for US stocks. The big hitters like Caterpillar and 3M followed IBM in reporting earnings that disappointed the Street and murdered the stock price. The Dow traded below the opening price for the year, and dragged the S&P and the index futures (ES) down with it. The S&P500 mini-futures (ES) spent most of the day in red...

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How To Win At Trading: Think Less, Win More

How To Win At Trading: Think Less, Win More

I teach trading in order to learn it better. Often, the most valuable insights about how the markets work, and how to best work with them, seem to reflect the principles of sports psychology. I’m not a sports psychologist, however, but I am a competitive tennis player, so I live sports psychology on the weekends. At team practice on Monday night only 4 of us showed up, so we had a...

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Smart Stock Traders Buy On The Dip

Smart Stock Traders Buy On The Dip

This is what buying the dips looks like. The S&P500 mini futures (ES) gapped down sharply overnight.  But as soon as the day session opened, new buyers started entering the market on volume just above the 2100 support level. The low for the day 2102.25, was made in the early session, and the price recovered from that point on. The futures stayed red all day, but closed well off the lows...

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Driving Season: What Does It Mean For Crude?

Driving Season: What Does It Mean For Crude?

If you are in the U.S. and glance at the calendar, you might notice that we are at the peak of summer. Those of us in the Midwest pay close attention to these things. The only way many of us get through the winter and the season that resembles winter but is known as “spring”, is remembering that summer is not too far off. We cherish every day above 70 degrees that also has sunshine....

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Why Bother With Risk Management?

Why Bother With Risk Management?

The only way a trader is going to make money is to put money on the line and risk losing some or all of it. It’s the very nature of the business but not one that anyone finds easy to cope with as the inherent risk is stressful and most people are risk adverse. However we take risks in all aspects of our life every single day. Driving the car, flying, going down stairs, riding your bike, you...

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US Stock Earnings Disappoint: What Now?

US Stock Earnings Disappoint: What Now?

Several of the stock market heavyweights reported Q2 earnings yesterday (notably IBM and United Technologies Corp UTX) and the results were not pleasing. The DJIA was red all day long, and dropped 181.12 points at the close.  The S&P 500 and the mini-futures (ES) both caught the contagion and ended lower. The mini futures (ESU5) closed the day at 2114.50, 4.25 points below the previous...

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Ask Kase: Is It Time To “Go For The Gold”?

Ask Kase: Is It Time To “Go For The Gold”?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). With the first increases in interest rates in over nine years looming, and the dollar strong, and gold supplies reportedly healthy, especially in China, it’s looking especially weak. After a strong decline on Monday, it bounced a bit on Tuesday, so, is it time to “go for the gold”. While...

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China's Gold Holdings: What Does It Mean?

China's Gold Holdings: What Does It Mean?

Gold’s drop so far this week has been violent and is somewhat reminiscent of the significant decline we saw in metals prices in 2013. While this week’s drop is nowhere near as large from a percentage perspective, the fact we continue to make new six year lows on a daily basis is significant. The news that triggered the sell-off was that the Peoples Bank of China announced over the weekend...

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The Price Of “Things” Vs. Treasury Yields

The Price Of “Things” Vs. Treasury Yields

See below— a chart of the CRB index (red line) versus the ten year treasury yield, white line.  As you can see, the relationship between the two is sometimes tight and sometimes a bit on the loose side.   From the second half of 2014 to the beginning of this year the relationship was pretty tight.  However, as 2015 has progressed, there has been more and more of a divergence.  The CRB is...

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The Almighty Dollar: Bulls Are Chomping At Bit

The Almighty Dollar: Bulls Are Chomping At Bit

On this week last year, the US Dollar Index kicked off a rally that gained 25% in 8 short months.  Since the peak at just over 100 in March of this year, the Dollar Index has been in a consolidation and oscillating in the mid-90’s.  But that could be getting ready to change. The push higher into July tested the primary zone of resistance at 97.18 – 98.56.  The pullback found eager buyers at...

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