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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 72 found.

Buy The Gold March Spread

Buy The Gold March Spread

As developed nations continue to turn to quantitative easing as the first line of defense against economic malaise, currency alternatives such as gold and silver have apparently reached a bottom.  Since trading at $1798.10 in October 2012, gold futures contracts have traded in a bearish pattern, reaching a low of $1,130.40 last November.  From September 2014 until very recently, the...

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Get Long Dec Corn For Potential Rally

Get Long Dec Corn For Potential Rally

Weekly export sales for corn came in at 818 thousand metric tons versus 387 thousand last week and down 10% on the four week average.  There were two surprises on the report.  One, Japan was absent from the import list.  That is important as they are the largest importer of US corn on a weekly basis.  Due to their shipping proximity and US corn’s current value, we will look for this...

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Swiss Rocket Fuel Blasts Gold Higher

Swiss Rocket Fuel Blasts Gold Higher

Last fall, our reading of the Gold futures chart led us to believe we would see a final decline below $1100 an ounce to establish the bottom that would support a new rally. To be clear, we were – and are – bullish on gold at these levels. But we expected a bit more down before we started to move up. That is still a possibility, but it is starting to look more remote, thanks to a sudden blast...

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Contango, The Oil Play For Today

Contango, The Oil Play For Today

Jonathan Leff (Reuters ) wrote a detailed analysis of the current state of crude oil in the US. In the midst of all the detail is a potential bet, a bet that is almost sure. Back in the dark days of the financial collapse and the Great Recession, crude oil spiked all the way up to $147 per barrel. Much of that was speculation, but a good part of it was the fact that a major surplus developed...

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A Week Of Volatility In Cattle

A Week Of Volatility In Cattle

Last week, January 5th through January 9th, has been one of the most volatile ever experienced in cattle prices. Box-meat, live-cattle, and feeder-cattle futures all experienced huge moves.  The reasons behind the volatility are the packers upped the ante on cattle, and the funds came out of the futures in a big way.  Some suggest we probably are going to have to bring the futures up to meet...

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More Downside To Oil Means More Upside Economically

More Downside To Oil Means More Upside Economically

Well, howdy after a nice weekend, at least for me. Maybe not so for investors and traders, as the market is opening this week on the same negative note it left us on Friday. Apparently, there is residual consternation in the market, or maybe all the technical predictions floating about are becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. No matter, the market will eventually find solid ground. In the...

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We Are Now Suspicious Of The SPX

We Are Now Suspicious Of The SPX

For at least two years, we have been long-term Bulls on the S&P500 large cap index (SPX). Sure, we take short-term positions with the Bears. We are traders, and we don't fall in love with either side, but when it comes to the longer time horizon, we have always called for this rally to continue. That is, until now. Now, there are two items in the SPX chart that are making us question if...

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The Bears Are Coming For Gold

The Bears Are Coming For Gold

For the last few years, radio and TV ads have tooted gold's horn as a safe investment and a hedge against yet another stock market crash. According to one particular commercial, this impending crash is a matter of when, not if.   While gold is often touted as a fear trade, history shows its usefulness seldom extends beyond  that of an effective hyperinflation hedge.  In a world still warding...

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Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Since the peak in June 2013, the price of a barrel of oil has dropped nearly 60% to under $50, and it seems no end is in sight.  Supply continues to exceed demand and that is within a decent economic growth pattern.  Some analysts predict growth could slow sharply in the year ahead, and that would sap demand for crude even more.  Yet, more supply comes online each day as the producers see...

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Fade the Rally in Soybeans

Fade the Rally in Soybeans

Short-term weather concerns in South America, along with continued strong exports, helped spark a fifty-cent rally in soybeans this week. Traders can use this recent rally as a selling opportunity following the January 12th USDA crop report. Despite some dryness in northeast Brazil during the first half of January helping to support the market, the weather concern seems to have offered...

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Gold – Stay Bearish For Now

Gold – Stay Bearish For Now

Gold has gone sideways since late October, and at this point, the Dec 24 low is pivotal. A close below 1,173.50 will open the door for a return to the Nov low at 1,137. The 89-dma has done a good job of providing support and resistance all year and is now at 1,212. Stay bearish until it is exceeded. A bull flag (if triggered by a move above the 89-dma) measures a minimum move to 1,300. A...

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WHEN WILL CRUDE RALLY?

WHEN WILL CRUDE RALLY?

Crude oil prices have been dropping consistently for six months.  After our latest consolidation over a couple weeks in December, prices are on the move lower again. So how can we know when this will turn around? Using the perspective that comes from viewing volume-at-price information, we can answer this question.  As you can see from the chart below, the most recent consolidation built a...

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The USD Index – A Small Washout Coming?

The USD Index – A Small Washout Coming?

The U.S. dollar, one of the strongest markets in 2014 and 2015, looks like it will keep the momentum rolling, or will it? Clearly, the market is off to a great start and macro economically speaking, there probably isn’t much that is going to change this in the near future. My concern with the U.S. dollar, at this point in time, concerns the rapid pace of the rally and the deteriorating...

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Look to Strangle Gold Into The New Year

Look to Strangle Gold Into The New Year

Risk aversion among year-end buyers and short-covering boosted gold futures early this week, but the rally could be short-lived, with the stronger dollar keeping a lid on further gains. Gold futures jumped almost two percent, breaking above the key $1,200-per-ounce level, as traders used Tuesday’s weaker dollar as an excuse to buy. Worries about Greece's election outcome and tensions between...

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March Cotton Futures: Trading Idea December 31, 2014

March Cotton Futures a Buying Opportunity on Fresh Price Strength See on the daily bar chart for March ICE cotton futures that prices have worked up from the recent low and have recently seen a pause. The bulls have gained a bit of upside technical momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. A move above solid technical resistance at the December high of 62.84 cents would give the bulls...

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