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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 115 found.

US Stocks Drop Overnight On China Rumors

US Stocks Drop Overnight On China Rumors

These are interesting times in the markets. In the course of two weeks the S&P500, the large cap index for US equities, has had both the biggest one-day drop and the biggest one-day rally since 2011. In a market where, until now, the range for the week was typically about 75 points, we have seen declines and rallies that moved that far in a couple of hours. On Friday the SPX closed at...

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Pick Low Hanging Fruit To Profit: Here's How

Pick Low Hanging Fruit To Profit: Here's How

The bulk of our analysis focuses on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report. This report tracks the large position holders in every market broken down by, managed money, hedgers, index traders and small speculators. There are many ways to slice and parse this data.   We’ve found most of the low hanging fruit can be plucked using a simple combination of...

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The Shemitah Cycle: Is Another Crash Lurking?

The Shemitah Cycle: Is Another Crash Lurking?

Meaning the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, the end of the past several Shemitahs have brought immense financial hardships to the world. The 1987 crash on Wall St. happened during Shemitah. The bond market was massacred in 1994. The 9/11 terror attacks happened in 2001 and the global economic crisis occurred in 2008. The Shemitah Year is the seventh year of the...

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How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

The Nicholas Cage film Next is about a guy who can see two minutes into the future. He works as a Las Vegas magician and makes extra money quietly at the blackjack table.   As traders and investors, we would love to be able to see around the corner of time, especially during volatile periods. Since we can’t, when money is at risk, we tend to become fortune tellers and use our intuition to...

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Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is talk of another GFC a reality, or just ridiculous speculation with no foundation whatsoever? Recently I wrote a very well received piece on the recent Greek Debt Crisis where I looked at the cold hard facts when the media went all crazy about a potential oncoming European Crisis, “Will A Greek Exit Trigger Another European Crisis?” It seems like we need to revisit this crisis topic all...

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Protect Your Capital From Wild Stock Swings

Protect Your Capital From Wild Stock Swings

After a strong bounce in the overnight trading, the ES found resistance on Tuesday around Monday's high area. But Tuesday’s rally failed later in the day when a new sell-off began after lunch. At the end the ES closed at 1873.50, or 2.25 points above the previous close. That close just about at the same level as Monday might give you the impression the market is settling down a little. The...

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US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). Clearly markets have been declining as the drop in demand in China has finally hit hard. It’s easy to sustain robust growth from a low base, but as an economy grows, that becomes more difficult, as China’s machinations show. The spillover to the Dow Jones Index has been evident since mid-May as...

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Has The Corn Market Found A Floor?

Has The Corn Market Found A Floor?

The latest weekly crop condition ratings update for Corn showed that 69 percent of the crop came in good to excellent condition unchanged on the week and down from 73% last year. The ten year average for this time of year comes in at 58 percent. Recent crop tours, a 20 to30 percent drop in Argentinean planted acreage, and lower than expected EU yield estimates have been all factors that have...

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China Panic Rollercoaster: Profit With The VIX

China Panic Rollercoaster: Profit With The VIX

With many key money managers away on vacation, world stock markets continued to plunge as the PBOC disappointed markets by not delivering a much anticipated rate cut over the weekend.  The CBOE volatility index, also known as the VIX, is an important measure of volatility with the U.S. equity markets and yesterday, it had a historic spike higher above the 50 level.    Monday morning saw...

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More Carnage: Investors Hurt, But Not Traders

More Carnage: Investors Hurt, But Not Traders

Yesterday we asked the rhetorical question: after the bloodbath, what happens next? Today we got the answer:  More! Much more! But not everyone is suffering equally. Some guys are laughing all the way to the bank. First the details. Last week the S&P500 index mini-futures (ES) dropped about 135 points in four trading days. Monday it dropped another 135 points in about four hours. This...

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After The Bloodbath: What's Next For Stocks?

After The Bloodbath: What's Next For Stocks?

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 1970.89 last Friday, down 120.61 points for a 5.76% net weekly loss. That bland statement doesn’t begin to describe the blind panic traders felt last week as they watched US equities drop through the trapdoor the Bears have been warning about for years. The SPX closed at a level last seen in mid-December, and is now firmly in the red for 2015. The...

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Strange Attractor: Year End Target For The S&P

Strange Attractor: Year End Target For The S&P

I usually write a column on Volume Profile on Mondays, but this week I’d like to show a ‘normal-looking’ monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a projected year-end target. Last week I pointed out that the Volume Profile Point of Control for the S&P futures (ES) is at 2092 and the strong volume spike at that level means there are now many trapped longs who are under increasing stress....

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Crude Oil Poised For Dramatic Reversal

Crude Oil Poised For Dramatic Reversal

The decline in crude oil prices has become dramatic.   Crude oil has fallen by more than one percent every day for each of the last thirty days; now down more than 32% since June 25th. While there is little doubt that this sell off reflects a slowing global economy combined with the largest production glut of all time, even an outlook this negative can get ahead of itself. Throw in Friday’s...

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Trapped Longs: Here's Where Stocks Could Go

Trapped Longs: Here's Where Stocks Could Go

On August 11 I wrote that the large gap at 4425 in the Nasdaq futures ‘beckons’ and suggested that traders keep that level in mind, as it was the Volume Profile Point of Control for the Nasdaq. Such levels act as magnets… and we are almost there. The S&P 500, however, filled its corresponding gap yesterday and closed far below it, suggesting a more significant sell-off is now in...

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Are You Ready For The Market Death Spiral?

Are You Ready For The Market Death Spiral?

This was not The Big Crash the shorts have been waiting six years for. But what happened to US equities yesterday and in the overnight market gave investors little taste of what a market death spiral would look like. All three US major indices plummeted right out of the gate Thursday morning and never looked back. By the end of the day session the S&P500 breached the 200-day moving...

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