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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 106 found.

Will Gravity Tug Nasdaq Back To Earth?

Will Gravity Tug Nasdaq Back To Earth?

Both the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 are probing new high territory, while the major indices look tired. Institutional funds have been flowing out of U.S. equities since the first of the year, which accounts for the choppy and lackluster performance of the major indices (the S&P is up 3.6%). That said, most institutions don’t invest in small caps or the Nasdaq 100, which is...

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Nasdaq Poised To Play Catch Up

Nasdaq Poised To Play Catch Up

After some late afternoon profit-taking on Wednesday, the stage was set for a nasty megaphone pattern on the 60 min NQ chart, which would resolve down at the Weekly Pivot (4456). The only thing standing in the way was support from a High Volume Node at 4489 (red dashed line on the chart.) On Thursday, the opening 30 minute bar tested this critical area and it held. That was an all-clear...

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E-Mini Futures: Lack Of Volume Worrisome

E-Mini Futures: Lack Of Volume Worrisome

The S&P 500 mini-futures (ES) made a retracement move in overnight trading early Thursday morning, but stopped at the 2119 resistance area, and recovered during the day session to return to the previous day-time high at 2132. It fell back a little to close at 2128, about six points above the previous close, on very light volume. We are still worried about the lack of volume in this...

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Crude Oil: Driving Season Kicks Into High Gear

Crude Oil: Driving Season Kicks Into High Gear

This weekend is the unofficial kick off of the summer season in the U.S. Although if you live in the Chicago area the forty degree weather we have had this week might have you wondering when spring is arriving.  The long holiday weekend usually sees many families and travelers hitting the road and starting what has now become “driving season.” One of the biggest factors in recent years of...

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Stock Review And Forecast: NQ Megaphone

Stock Review And Forecast: NQ Megaphone

Thanks to the release of market-friendly Fed Minutes, on Wednesday afternoon the Nasdaq futures once again made a run at our upside target, the High Volume Node at 4523. The third time was a charm and it was briefly surpassed: 4534 marked the high of the day. No doubt the zoom-up got some animal spirits pumping, but the bulls were soon left holding the proverbial bag. During the final hour...

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E-Mini S&P: Another New High, Another Disappointing Close

E-Mini S&P: Another New High, Another Disappointing Close

The S&P 500 mini-futures (ES) made a new intraday high for the regular day session trading again Wednesday, but sold off immediately and closed at 2122.50 for a slight loss from the previous close. The volume was about normal for recent trading. The ESM5 ran up 11 points in anticipation of the FOMC release after lunch, and made a new high at 2132.20, but gave it all back in the next...

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Crude Oil is a Buy

Crude Oil is a Buy

Crude oil has been drifting lower in fits and spurts for the majority of the month of May after a very strong April, which saw prices climb out of the 40’s and nearly touch $60/barrel by the end of the month. The chart below is showing volume-at-price information, which is displayed as a histogram on the vertical axis to allow the reader to see what prices have seen the heaviest traded...

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Correction Starting?

Correction Starting?

On Tuesday the Nasdaq futures once again approached our upside target, the High Volume Node at 4523. The high for the day was 4520 and the NQ closed the day session at 4500, a 20-point afternoon slide. The Nasdaq futures have been supported by the supreme stability of the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials as they flirt with new highs, but in my view the gap around 4425 beckons, 75 points below...

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A New High, New Worries: ES

A New High, New Worries: ES

Yesterday The S&P500 mini-futures (ES) reached historic highs in pre-market trading yesterday, but couldn't hold the gain and closed at 2124.50, a bit less than two points below the previous close. We’re in two-steps-forward-one-step-back mode these days. It’s nice to see a new high, and the breakout we’ve been waiting for since the beginning of March seems to have arrived. But...

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Breakout! But not yet lift-off

Breakout! But not yet lift-off

Yesterday The S&P500 mini-futures (the ES) finally broke through the resistance area that has been holding them down since the beginning of March, and closed above the resistance at 2126.00, precisely the break-out we have been watching for all month. But there’s always something else, isn’t there. Now we are watching to see if the market can continue the rally over the rest of the week....

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SPX- “Black Hole” Drop Pending

SPX- “Black Hole” Drop Pending

Each and every drop is finding buyers, which is bullish no matter how one looks at it. But every new all-time high finds sellers and has caused massive drops, which is not bullish, no matter how one looks at it. The fact that a majority of the points being made on the upside, are being done in overnight trading when participation is very low, is somewhat disturbing. If everything was as rosy...

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Aussie Dollar: Commercial Trader's Perspective

Aussie Dollar: Commercial Trader's Perspective

The Australian Dollar has declined by more than 18% against the U.S. Dollar over the last six months. These losses accelerated last September once the market fell through $.92 support area. The chart we’ve included focuses on a shorter timeframe as we attempt to determine the quality of April’s rally off the lows. Commercial traders in the Australian Dollar are value players just like...

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NQ: Still Looking HIgher

NQ: Still Looking HIgher

The Nasdaq futures traded sideways on Friday, taking a breather after Thursday’s explosive move. Unfortunately, the opening action last Thursday left a 20-point unfilled gap at 4424-4444 and the Nasdaq has definitely been in gap fill mode. That said, with the S&P 500 making new all-time highs, such irrational exuberance may not be immediately corrected. So while a retest of Thursday’s...

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ES: A Very Suspicious All Time HIgh

ES: A Very Suspicious All Time HIgh

Last Friday The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2122.73 last Friday  -- an all-time high close -- up 6.63 points for net weekly gain of 0.3%. And yet, it doesn't quite feel as good as it should. Sure, it is a new high on a closing basis. But we can't help feeling suspicious. The SPX started the week with heavy losses, down 33 points on the first two days, but the selling ended on...

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So Much to Worry About - Really?

So Much to Worry About - Really?

Are there no shortage if things market players need to worry about?  It's amazing how long that 'wall of worry' has been up.  Yet, the market doesn't seem to be showing it, in fact we are seeing high complacency exist, which may not be a good thing over the long haul.  But I have to believe the mountain of concern in trading markets is way overblown, and the market shows it'll continue to...

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