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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

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Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

I expected a continuation of the correction in Apple (AAPL) on Thursday and at the open it dropped quickly toward $126, taking the Nasdaq Futures (NQ) down to 4431. However, before reaching its gap, AAPL stabilized and reversed without doing much damage. The head fake lower sets up an immediate rally in the NQ to 4525-4530. The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100...

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ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

Yesterday On Thursday the S&P500 min-futures (ESH5) made one of those moves that just scream manipulation. The large cap index was working its way lower toward the 2100 support level, coinciding with a decline in oil that saw crude down to $47 a barrel for time, and the dollar dramatically higher, with the Euro trading at 112 U.S. cents, And then, at precisely 3:00 pm., it all turned...

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ESH5: More Of The Same, With A Slightly Different Result

ESH5: More Of The Same, With A Slightly Different Result

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ESH5) made a new high again yesterday (Wednesday Feb. 25) the 11th time since the beginning of February that the market has made a new record. This time it couldn't hold the gain. The futures reached 2117.75 at one point, a price that has never been seen in the ES before, but closed at 2110.25, 3.50 points below the previous close. It was another very...

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Market Review and Forecast: AAPL – Watch Out Below!

Market Review and Forecast: AAPL – Watch Out Below!

Volume Profile is most useful in determining support and resistance during pullbacks. Now that Apple (AAPL) is correcting, let’s take a closer look at its key support levels. AAPL has strong support at the High Volume Node (HVN) at $128.63, and the stock closed just above that level on Wednesday. But High Volume Nodes are like double edged swords; they cut both ways. As long as price is...

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Fund Rebalancing in Soybeans

Fund Rebalancing in Soybeans

Last week saw the grain market start the week higher, off of the threat of subzero temperatures entering the western wheat states, then finding profit taking the next few sessions as the market prepared for the results of the USDA Outlook Forum Conference.  The Commitment of Traders Report showed trend following funds enter last week short 77,000 bean contracts up 20,000 from the week prior...

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ESH5: The Usual Pattern, Conducted By The Usual Suspects

ESH5: The Usual Pattern, Conducted By The Usual Suspects

Yesterday The S&P500 mini-futures (ESH5) managed to scrape up the energy to make a new all-time high yesterday and close at an all-time high. But it was a pitiful performance nonetheless. The futures closed at 2113.75, a little less than seven points above the previous close, and a little below the record high at 2115.75. The volume was abysmal, less than half the normal level. The...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: S&P Grinding Toward 2120 (+ AAPL)

Futures Market Review and Forecast: S&P Grinding Toward 2120 (+ AAPL)

On Tuesday the S&P crept higher and is approaching my target at 2120. I don’t think 2120 is the top. For one thing, Apple (AAPL) is most likely headed to $150, which should push the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to new all-time highs and keep the S&P levitated. I suspect the S&P will ultimately get to 2164. A Note on Volume Profile The histogram on the left side of the chart shows the volume...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: Healthy Consolidation

Futures Market Review and Forecast: Healthy Consolidation

On Monday the S&P consolidated Friday’s gain in a healthy manner. 2100 is now support. If you look over at the Volume Profile chart you will see a low volume node (valley) at that price. Interestingly, low volume areas can and do act as support. How so? Think of it this way – few want to transact business there. 2120 is the next target for the S&P, followed by 2140 and, I expect, we...

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ESH5: Greece Is A Day Late And $350 Billion Short

ESH5: Greece Is A Day Late And $350 Billion Short

Yesterday Well that was quick. Less than three days after the triumphant announcement of a deal to resolve the Greek debt crisis, Greece failed to meet the first deadline. Yesterday (Monday) Athens was supposed to present a list of “reforms” it will undertake in return for more Eurozone funding of its $350 billion debt. It failed to make the deadline and is now promising the list will be...

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A Play In May Cotton Futures

A Play In May Cotton Futures

May cotton futures recently traded above $.65 per pound for the first time since September. Two things have happened on this rally to develop the next trading opportunity. First of all, May cotton futures traded down to $.5795 to set the low for this move one month ago. We were fortunate to see the bottom coming, as it became very clear that the commercial traders had turned to the buy side...

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Nice Reward, Low Risk

Nice Reward, Low Risk

The implosion of the crude-oil markets over the past few months has been one of the biggest news stories on just about every financial-news channel.  The speed and magnitude of the move made USO a very difficult trade, if you were not already short before the drop. There really was no pullback the entire time and good luck trying to find the bottom for that falling knife.  Thankfully,...

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SPX: All Greece, All The Time, It’s Not Over

SPX: All Greece, All The Time, It’s Not Over

Last Week On Friday, to huge sighs of relief and yelps of triumph, European institutions announced a "resolution" to the ongoing saga of the Greek debt negotiations, which have become a classic drama in three acts. The First Act was the election of a new government in Greece, vowing to repudiate the onerous agreements made by the bad old government, and they would relieve the long-suffering...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: Looking for a Top @ 2140

Futures Market Review and Forecast: Looking for a Top @ 2140

As forecast, the S&P moved up nicely on Friday after faking a trip down to fill the gap at 2070. Last week, I mentioned that in this type of market climate, head fakes are common. When you can see the lower half of a megaphone forming during a down-spike, then you should assume the upper line (as drawn) is a possible target. This market loves megaphones and often the symmetry prevails. ...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: What About Tesla?

Futures Market Review and Forecast: What About Tesla?

Nothing changed on the S&P 500 yesterday. I mostly focus on that index, but I will occasionally show you a Volume Profile of my favorite equities. Tesla (TSLA) is in a very interesting position at the moment. The stock filled a nasty gap on Thursday, which puts it at a key resistance point, its Volume Profile Point of Control. $211.49 is key resistance, but a close above that level...

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ESH5: Another Long Slow Grind

ESH5: Another Long Slow Grind

The S&P500 mini futures (ESH5) have been establishing a base near the all-time highs, preparing for a break-out move that will come in the next few days, if not today. But oh, what a wearisome process it is. For the last three days, the futures have been grinding along in a narrow range with relatively light volume, stuck between the support level around 2086-88, and the psychological...

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