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Futures/Commodities Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 102 found.

ESM5: At Last! The Long-Awaited Break Out … Maybe

ESM5: At Last! The Long-Awaited Break Out … Maybe

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) repeated Wednesday's pattern yesterday, but it went a little further and made a more significant move. The minis have been fooling around below the 2103-2105 level, stymied by the resistance in that area every time they tried to move higher. Yesterday (Thursday Apr. 23), they finally gathered enough strength to move past the resistance and make a...

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Resistance Becomes Support

Resistance Becomes Support

Volume Profile gives us information on key levels of support and resistance (S/R). Although the High Volume Nodes and Low Volume Nodes often produce very precise reversals, S/R is best conceptualized as a zone. For the last few days, the key zone in the NQ has been centered around 4442. On Wednesday, a “scouting party” briefly probed above it, but a 40-point rejection reaction ensued. This...

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Crude, Headed Back To $50?

Crude, Headed Back To $50?

A lot of people follow the commodity markets. Most have a favorite contract that they trade or chart. Some will follow a particular sector like grains, currencies or interest rate futures.  As active as some people’s interest is in commodity markets, they may only have a tunnel vision for one particular contract. It seems like no matter what contract people focus on, they always know the...

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NQ Poised for a Breakout?

NQ Poised for a Breakout?

Volume Profile gives key levels of support and resistance. These levels are sometimes “lines in the sand,” and at other times they are made of rubber. On Wednesday, the 4442 level was temporarily broken by a “scouting party” rally taking price up to 4459. Price then retraced down to that level and finally closed just above it at 4446. Scouting parties are tentative forays beyond obvious...

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ESM5: Busy Going Nowhere

ESM5: Busy Going Nowhere

Yesterday In what has started to become a familiar pattern, the real movement in the S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) is taking place outside the regular trading hours, and it is being corrected once the terminals start up and the regular-session traders hit their desks. Yesterday (Wednesday), the minis dumped 18 points overnight, clawed most of it back before the open, dumped a second time...

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Two Ways Wheat Can Go

Two Ways Wheat Can Go

Wheat has two situations developing, completely opposite of each other.  First the bullish side … Monday’s crop condition report showed 42% of the winter-wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 44% the week prior.  Three big producers came in well under the national average with number one wheat producer Kansas at 28%, Nebraska 36% and Oklahoma 36%, all at good to excellent...

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NQ Poised For A Breakout?

NQ Poised For A Breakout?

Volume Profile often gives uncanny targeting precision. Tuesday was just such a day.  In the Nasdaq, the balance of power shifted toward the bulls on Monday, but not everyone realized that. Tuesday, however, we had clear follow-through to our target (4442), despite the fact that the Dow was down 85 points and the S&P 500 was flat. The high of the day was 4442.75. As noted yesterday,...

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ESM5: We Shoulda Stayed In Bed – The Market Did.

ESM5: We Shoulda Stayed In Bed – The Market Did.

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures, the ESM5, closed the day yesterday (Tuesday) exactly where it closed the day Monday, at 2091.00. The minis ran up in overnight trading, when the volume is negligible, and managed a high at 2103.50, just below the recent resistance level. But once the market opened and the traders saw the opportunity to short, it traded all the way back down to 2087.50,...

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ESM5: A Noisy, Manipulated Market, Still Going Nowhere

ESM5: A Noisy, Manipulated Market, Still Going Nowhere

Yesterday Last Friday (Apr. 17) the US market sold off – big time. Yesterday (Monday) it bounced back sharply. Both moves – up and down – were attributed to the same event, financial news from China. Nothing much changed from Friday to Monday. No sudden wars, no big economic news, no new Fedspeak. It is just machines pushing the prices around for fun and profit. The ES remains inside a broad...

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A Bull Stampede

A Bull Stampede

In yesterday’s market review, I forecast a rally into the 4370-4384 resistance zone.  That level was attained within the first 15 minutes of the day session on Monday. The next 5-minute bar, however, exploded 17 points to the High Volume Node at 4407 (the gold line on the chart).  The key lesson from Monday’s action is to recognize there’s nothing more bullish than a failed bearish pattern....

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SPX- Range Bound – For Now

SPX- Range Bound – For Now

The SPX has been trading within a triangle range for the last 2 months. With every big thrust higher, the bulls are convinced it is breaking out, only to see those gains wiped out in a matter of hours. Then, when we see the big drop, the bears are convinced it is breaking down, only to see those gains wiped out in a matter of days/hours. These fairly large moves are coming at warp speed and...

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Bean-Meal Bulls Gaining Control

Bean-Meal Bulls Gaining Control

July soybean meal fell through major support last week near $315 per ton. There are two points to be made on the market’s action at these levels. Although it may be a bit of a, “chicken and the egg” situation regarding what happened last week, we feel its outcome provides a major clue towards forward direction. Finally, since we only trade forward direction, we’ll focus on the predictive...

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SPX: Waiting For Something To Happen

SPX: Waiting For Something To Happen

Last Week Weekly Outlook - SP&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2081.18 last Friday, down 20.88 points for net weekly loss of 1%. It was a strange week: a sell-off on Monday and Tuesday, a strong overnight rally going into Wednesday, and a 40-point dump on Friday (Apr. 17). “Unsettled” doesn't do it justice. The sell-off might be seen as the result of...

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A Fly Broke The Bottle

A Fly Broke The Bottle

As noted last week, the Nasdaq has been in a choppy and volatile consolidation for the last 6 weeks. These fast moves create SpeedZones that present little support or resistance to retracements. Bulls and bears get punished equally.     The lower support level at 4370 was taken out on Friday, sending the market all the way down to the Low Volume Node at 4337. Remember, areas of low volume...

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ESM5: Mini-futures Form A Doji Near The Top Of A Good Run. Be Careful.

ESM5: Mini-futures Form A Doji Near The Top Of A Good Run. Be Careful.

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini futures (ESM5) gapped down at the open and traded in the red for the entire morning session. Then a handful of Fed presidents began giving speeches, and the market marched up like a good little soldier in response. But it was all for nothing. The mini rally failed to break the prior day's high, and by the end of the afternoon, the gains all melted away. The...

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