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Trade A Potential Bottom In UPS Shares For Big Profits

Trade A Potential Bottom In UPS Shares For Big Profits

Shares of United Parcel Service shook off a downgrade from Zacks and mid-day market sell off to finish higher by more than 2%, printing a bullish hammer candlestick after nearly hitting lows not seen since last October. This would mark the third major support around the $94 support level since mid-April. Now is the time to consider taking a long position, using a stop loss under the August...

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How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

How To Profit From The Next Black Swan

The Nicholas Cage film Next is about a guy who can see two minutes into the future. He works as a Las Vegas magician and makes extra money quietly at the blackjack table.   As traders and investors, we would love to be able to see around the corner of time, especially during volatile periods. Since we can’t, when money is at risk, we tend to become fortune tellers and use our intuition to...

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Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is Another Global Financial Crisis Starting Now?

Is talk of another GFC a reality, or just ridiculous speculation with no foundation whatsoever? Recently I wrote a very well received piece on the recent Greek Debt Crisis where I looked at the cold hard facts when the media went all crazy about a potential oncoming European Crisis, “Will A Greek Exit Trigger Another European Crisis?” It seems like we need to revisit this crisis topic all...

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US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). Clearly markets have been declining as the drop in demand in China has finally hit hard. It’s easy to sustain robust growth from a low base, but as an economy grows, that becomes more difficult, as China’s machinations show. The spillover to the Dow Jones Index has been evident since mid-May as...

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Have Central Banks Lost Control?

Have Central Banks Lost Control?

To say the markets have been roiled in the past few days is an understatement.  The financial press has focused on US and Chinese equities, and to a lesser extent, on crude oil.  Clearly, the US stock market is a huge factor in global wealth.  From the end of July US equities probably lost a total of $2.5 trillion of market cap, so with GDP at around $17.7 trillion that represents around 14%...

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Has The Corn Market Found A Floor?

Has The Corn Market Found A Floor?

The latest weekly crop condition ratings update for Corn showed that 69 percent of the crop came in good to excellent condition unchanged on the week and down from 73% last year. The ten year average for this time of year comes in at 58 percent. Recent crop tours, a 20 to30 percent drop in Argentinean planted acreage, and lower than expected EU yield estimates have been all factors that have...

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China Panic Rollercoaster: Profit With The VIX

China Panic Rollercoaster: Profit With The VIX

With many key money managers away on vacation, world stock markets continued to plunge as the PBOC disappointed markets by not delivering a much anticipated rate cut over the weekend.  The CBOE volatility index, also known as the VIX, is an important measure of volatility with the U.S. equity markets and yesterday, it had a historic spike higher above the 50 level.    Monday morning saw...

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After The Bloodbath: What's Next For Stocks?

After The Bloodbath: What's Next For Stocks?

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 1970.89 last Friday, down 120.61 points for a 5.76% net weekly loss. That bland statement doesn’t begin to describe the blind panic traders felt last week as they watched US equities drop through the trapdoor the Bears have been warning about for years. The SPX closed at a level last seen in mid-December, and is now firmly in the red for 2015. The...

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Strange Attractor: Year End Target For The S&P

Strange Attractor: Year End Target For The S&P

I usually write a column on Volume Profile on Mondays, but this week I’d like to show a ‘normal-looking’ monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a projected year-end target. Last week I pointed out that the Volume Profile Point of Control for the S&P futures (ES) is at 2092 and the strong volume spike at that level means there are now many trapped longs who are under increasing stress....

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A Guide To Survive The Market Volatility

A Guide To Survive The Market Volatility

This past week was a difficult one for markets.  That is probably an understatement, as the SPX 500 fell a stunning 5% during the week, the Dow Industrials dropped more than 530 points, or more than 3%.  It was the worst week in nearly a year and set the indices back to losses in 2015.  Seems like a big move, right?  It was 'only' 3%, but to put that into context - in 1987 the Dow...

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Play Ball! Use Expected Value To Hit Home Runs

Play Ball! Use Expected Value To Hit Home Runs

I really want to stress how important the concept of expected value is.   When it comes down to it, one’s ability to accurately (and honestly) forecast expected value is one of, if not the, most important skills we must have as traders.   Let take the example of a small semi-pro baseball club plans to invest $10,000 to host an exhibition baseball game. They expect to sell tickets worth...

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Is Trading Just Like Gambling?

Is Trading Just Like Gambling?

A gambler is always looking for action all the time, never satisfied to sit things out unless they are forced to do so.  At that point of course, they are out of cash and can no longer make a bet.  Well, investing/trading is really not like gambling, because if you think it through carefully you can create an edge - better odds than the gaming outcome.Yet, there are times when it is just not...

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Are New Multi-Year Lows Coming For Potash?

Are New Multi-Year Lows Coming For Potash?

Unusual Options Activity On August 19th, the POT Jan 2017 $20/$25 bear put spread was put on 6,000 times for a $2.09 debit. This was part of a rollout from Jan 2016 puts. Put activity was 8 times the average daily volume. He/she has the potential to make 139% on a close at or below $20 on January 2017 options expiration. Fundamentals This summer, Potash has been trying to acquire K+S, a...

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Is Disney Mickey Mouse?

Is Disney Mickey Mouse?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). The media sector has been hit by fears about streaming video and unbundling. Disney reported decent revenues, but is trading at a relatively high multiple. With high hopes that Star Wars will boost Disney’s prospects, is the decline now a time to buy in? Disney climbed from a $15.14 low back in...

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Tesla: Rational exUBERance

Tesla: Rational exUBERance

A week ago shares of Tesla (TSLA) were being rather aggressively sold after the company failed to impress with Q2 results. Some analysts lowered price targets and technically the stock looked ‘toppy.’   Despite the lackluster news, however, the selling quickly dried up, shares found support around $231 and began to bounce with the rest of the market on 8/12. That was the first sign that...

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