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Futures Market Review and Forecast: In Limbo For A Bit

Futures Market Review and Forecast: In Limbo For A Bit

The S&P 500 made a nominal new all-time high on Tuesday, which is a bullish development. The upside target is 2118, but the irrationally exuberant gap at 2070 still beckons. Both targets will probably be attained; it’s just a question of which occurs first. Markets like to “head-fake” at times like this, so don’t assume the next little breakout or breakdown is real.  A Note on Volume...

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The Week Ahead For The QQQ And The Spy

The Week Ahead For The QQQ And The Spy

Last week the market got back to 2014 levels with big gains for all major market indices. The S&P 500 was up 2%, the DJIA up close to 1%,  and the latter tested the 18,000 area for the first time since last year. Oil prices bottomed and started to climb. The question is: Will the market continue higher? A look at the major market indices might give us a clue as to where the market will...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: 2088 Target Attained

Futures Market Review and Forecast: 2088 Target Attained

The upside target at 2088 was fully attained on Friday, with the S&P 500 making a new all-time high for extra measure. The aggressive rally through the “speed zone” left a gap at 2070, which now beckons.   That said, an overshoot to 2118 has about an 80% probability. The only question is which one happens first?   A Note on Volume Profile The histogram on the left side of the chart shows...

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A Bearish Play On The April Loonie

A Bearish Play On The April Loonie

The volatility in the crude-oil market over the last few months makes many people hesitant to participate. The wild swings in short time frames can test any trader’s will power to stay with their position. Buying options can define risk, but the rewards don’t come as quickly all the time. The Canadian Dollar is often viewed as a commodity currency. What that means is that movements in the...

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A Conservative Play On Wheat

A Conservative Play On Wheat

Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 397-thousand metric tons of wheat was sold last week, down 27% from the week prior.  Key world buyer Egypt purchased 300-thousand metric tons from France and Romania this week.  The United States still remains a third or fourth port of origin for wheat for human consumption.  Asian countries were the main buyers in purchasing wheat at a discount...

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Oil, Could It Go To $20?

Oil, Could It Go To $20?

I have an idea – let’s talk oil. Aside from Greece and Ukraine, it is one of the hot market topics of the, day, uh ... week, no, month, year? In any case, oil is hot, and with the current uptick in prices, one has to ask – is the fall in prices over? Me? Well, you know my position. Oil has become subject to fundamentals, generally speaking. Now, having said that, the current uptick in prices...

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Commercial Buyers Supporting Cattle

Commercial Buyers Supporting Cattle

The live cattle futures market has been driven by overseas demand and declining domestic supplies. The broader news regarding generational lows in herd sizes has been offset a bit by the domestic decline in U.S. red meat consumption, which probably set another record low for 2014. The cattle market has been in a multi-year uptrend and is finally providing a meaningful test of the market’s...

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Oil, QE, Europe, And ETFs

Oil, QE, Europe, And ETFs

It is difficult to watch the market day in and day out and not pay attention to the plight of oil. This reality kindles in me a spark of compunction, a sense of regret that I, writing daily about the market movement, am compelled to write about oil. Actually, my reality is such that I must write about not only oil, but the other headlines that might, or might not, actually be the underlying...

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The Correction In AbbVie Stock Could Be Nearing An End

The Correction In AbbVie Stock Could Be Nearing An End

AbbVie (ABBV) shares, a $92B pharmaceutical company which has products that treat Crohn’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, thyroid disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and other chronic auto-immune diseases, are on pace for their seventh consecutive weekly loss. This week’s tumble comes after the $148B Gilead Science announced an increase in the amount of discounts to their Hep C drug, Sovalid, this...

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ESH5: Monday Late Ramp Recovers Friday Losses

ESH5: Monday Late Ramp Recovers Friday Losses

The S&P500 mini-futures (ESH5) are starting to show the kind of volatile price swings that make experienced traders think the market is reaching a major inflection point. In the last three trading days, the ESH5 closed at 2018 on Thursday (Jan. 29); at 1988.50 on Friday (Jan. 30); and at 2012.50 yesterday (Feb. 2). The daily range for those three days totaled about 115 points. The net...

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Time To Fade The Rally In Treasuries

Time To Fade The Rally In Treasuries

Throughout most of 2014, the trade to make in U.S. bonds was from the long side (even in the first two weeks of this year), but now the trade is starting to get crowded in the near-term. The bid to cover ratio of Wednesday’s $13B 30-year bond auction was 2.32 vs the average of 2.49 (December’s high was 2.76). This reflects a weakening demand for long-dated treasuries. Looking at the...

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Find Your Opportunities And Make Your Bets

Find Your Opportunities And Make Your Bets

Here we go again. This year is starting out to be like 2014 – excessive and unwarranted selling. Oh well. It is true, you can’t fight the tape. It is what it is and it ain’t no more. We just have to be patient while the market does its thing. In the meantime, think about where you might put your money this year. Citigroup (C) and other big banks including Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan...

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WHEN WILL CRUDE RALLY?

WHEN WILL CRUDE RALLY?

Crude oil prices have been dropping consistently for six months.  After our latest consolidation over a couple weeks in December, prices are on the move lower again. So how can we know when this will turn around? Using the perspective that comes from viewing volume-at-price information, we can answer this question.  As you can see from the chart below, the most recent consolidation built a...

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The USD Index – A Small Washout Coming?

The USD Index – A Small Washout Coming?

The U.S. dollar, one of the strongest markets in 2014 and 2015, looks like it will keep the momentum rolling, or will it? Clearly, the market is off to a great start and macro economically speaking, there probably isn’t much that is going to change this in the near future. My concern with the U.S. dollar, at this point in time, concerns the rapid pace of the rally and the deteriorating...

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Markets Quiet to End the Year

* Latest Market Developments * NOTE: I am out of the office all week this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my report today. Ken’s format and style is a bit different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his work, too.—Jim The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline....

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