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Markets Commentaries

Showing Commentaries 1 - 15 out of 89 found.

What A Difference a Week Makes

What A Difference a Week Makes

Last week I wrote that Eurodollar spreads were indicating only one hike a year, a glacial pace.  For example the spread between the September 2016 contract and September 2017 contract had settled on Tuesday June 21, at 23.5.  Yesterday, June 28, this spread closed at just 14 bps.  The surprise Brexit vote took Fed tightening out of the equation.  Where this is most apparent is in the Fed...

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Where's The Bottom? Time to Buy AAL Now

Where's The Bottom? Time to Buy AAL Now

Hey lovely traders, friends and students from around the world. What a massively exciting, challenging and volatile last few days. The vast majority of the companies are down and down hard and many are wondering ‘where’s the bottom’ and what are some good buys and not good byes.  One stock in particular, I’ve had my eyes on since early May. I really didn’t not think AAL would sell off this...

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Brexit Vote Unlikely to Rescue British Pound

Brexit Vote Unlikely to Rescue British Pound

Our chart of British Pound futures shows why we don't expect the Brexit vote to produce a drastic change in the value of the currency regardless of the decision. Although the Pound could break in either direction from its present area, the Elliott wave patterns for both scenarios suggest the next move will not be large. Even so, traders might find areas to watch for a turn near the levels we...

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Chart Of The Week: DB Agriculture Shows Some Promise

Chart Of The Week: DB Agriculture Shows Some Promise

The DB Agriculture fund tracks a proxy of actual soft and hard commodities and not the stocks which represent them.  In this fund we'll find weightings of cattle, corn, beans, meal, sugar, coffee, wheat and other grains that are a nice representation of goods.  Trading in the individual names can be tricky and require some experience and expertise.  However, an aggregate such as the DBA...

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Jump On This Big Break Out Move In Citrix Systems

Jump On This Big Break Out Move In Citrix Systems

What gets a trader excited?  There are lots of things, but one thing for sure is a game changer.  There is nothing worse for a trader than same old, same old.  So, when things change…it’s game on!  Let’s look at a break out set up in Citrix Systems (CTXS).  Take a look at the chart in Figure 1 below. What you have here is what is known as an inside bar with subsequent break out.  The inside...

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Use Bull Put Spreads To Profit With Google Now

Use Bull Put Spreads To Profit With Google Now

Hey traders! How are you?! Have you had an amazing last few days in the markets? Some wild moves and pre markets gaps have made day trading and option selling a fun and profitable endeavor.  Headed back home to Nashville, TN from Los Angeles right now and I noticed this exciting pattern on GOOGL. Well, I didn’t just notice it. It’s been on my radar for a LONG time. I love trading GOOGL. In...

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Stock Market: Next Cycle Low Due June 29

Stock Market: Next Cycle Low Due June 29

After last week’s failed call for a “relief rally” it becomes harder to accept bullish signals as seen in the McClellan Oscillator this week. There is the possibility of a micro-cycle high on/near Tuesday which gives the possibility of a 1-2 day rally but the next micro-cycle low is due June 29 which matches the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a low near then which is outlined below.   June 27 -...

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S&P 500: Don’t Fall in Love with a Brexit Rally

S&P 500: Don’t Fall in Love with a Brexit Rally

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2071.22 last Friday, down 24.85 points on the week for a 1.18% loss. For the long-term, the significant point is the retreat from the long-term resistance around 2120-2130. That resistance dates back to February 2015 in a broad topping pattern formed after a very long bull market. The resistance has successfully rebuffed eight attempts to move past...

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The Psychology Behind “Harmonic” Trading

The Psychology Behind “Harmonic” Trading

Students of Elliott wave, harmonics and GANN will know about the so called hidden pattern of the universe which can be detected in the charts. Traders at large have big issues though relating the theory into workable concepts for their (trading) life. The reason for this is mental compartmentalization The linear mind does not like the idea of simplicity within complexity. Yet this is exactly...

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2 Trade Ideas In Crude Oil

2 Trade Ideas In Crude Oil

July Crude Oil continued it retreat from the 51.67 high on Thursday, June 16, 2016 as bearish traders continue to control the price action. The breakdown from the 47.26 support level had longs packing their bags and sent price on a downward spiral to 46.14, near where it settled at 46.21. Crude Oil couldn’t recover after settlement and made its low for the day at 45.91 before ending the day...

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Don’t Be Fooled By Natural Gas Rally

Don’t Be Fooled By Natural Gas Rally

It is a common myth among novice futures traders that you buy natural gas at the beginning of summer because increased demand for electricity from US air conditioning needs will spur demand for the natural gas that fuels many electricity generating plants.  While this is a massive over generalization of price forecasting (as is most trading folklore), it is grounded in fact. The US does get...

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Playing The Fed: What's Next?

Playing The Fed: What's Next?

Well there you have it. The much anticipated June FOMC meeting came and went, without too much noise. It wasn’t exactly a letdown, but it didn’t provide the excitement that many had expected. The June meeting had been marked by many for several months as the time when the Federal Reserve would finally take some action.  Unfortunately for them, that didn’t happen. The Fed’s decision to leave...

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ETF Alert: Financial Select Sector SPDR $XLF Cracks

ETF Alert: Financial Select Sector SPDR $XLF Cracks

The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is one of the most widely traded ETF’s each and every trading day.  It’s down 4% in just the last week, -1.5% just yesterday.  So when and where will the losses end?  Let’s have a look. Click here to watch a video explaining how to read markets using volume at price. The zone of support at 22.98 – 23.27, once broken, shifted the bias to bearish and...

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Profit From VIX Clues Now

Profit From VIX Clues Now

VIX. Many traders, both retail and professional, love to trade it.  It’s a very appealing instrument.  But, many do not entirely understand it.  If you are going to trade VIX and its related products, you have to do your homework.  The VIX options are European exercise. That means you can’t exercise them until the day they expire. There is no effective limit on how low or high the prices can...

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S&P 500: Don't Get Trapped By the Fake-Out

S&P 500: Don't Get Trapped By the Fake-Out

The S&P500, the index of large-cap stocks, made a new high for the year last week, briefly touching 2120 before falling back to close at 2096.07, a couple of points below last week’s close and the close two weeks ago. The index has been bumping against the high side of a very long and very large consolidation area that extends back about 18 months and covers about 250 points, from...

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