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Markets Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 91 found.

Low Volatility Can Be Tough For Bulls and Bears

Low Volatility Can Be Tough For Bulls and Bears

Markets have been under the guise of low volatility as seen in the VIX since this gauge started trending down in early February, and once it broke the 200 ma (see the chart) it has been grinding between 12 and 16.5.  That is somewhat normal around this time period, and we have seen spikes in volatility sold off before the end of the trading session (noted on the chart).  Usually, low...

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Profit From Sell-Off In the Yen

Profit From Sell-Off In the Yen

The Japanese Yen has fallen away from the higher resistance level that we noted for readers here in early April, near 0.009360. If price remains beneath that area, then the Yen should be on track to test or fall beneath the lows of 2015. Such a test could happen later this year, and it may happen again – with lower lows – sometime in 2017. If you have been following the progression of our...

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It's Simple: Trade The Bullish Retest Gap

It's Simple: Trade The Bullish Retest Gap

Traders from around the planet, I hope you are doing remarkable! In this article I want to cover the simplicity of 1 specific type of gap. The bullish retest gap. And, we’re going to cover it on a swing trading level. The reason I look for gaps is because gaps cause emotion and therefore, a higher probability of direction. That’s what I’m looking for in a swing trade initially; ‘did the...

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Should I Buy Apple Stock (AAPL)?

Should I Buy Apple Stock (AAPL)?

Several weeks ago I wrote about buying Apple (AAPL) after the stock suffered a fifteen percent price plunge due to concerns over slowing Chinese growth. Primarily I disagreed with the market because it was significantly undervalued and it was just too cheap to ignore, so I began buying. I had received many emails and comments regarding this call which suggested I was on the wrong side of the...

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Oil No, Brexit Less Likely, HP Worth A Look

Oil No, Brexit Less Likely, HP Worth A Look

Two consecutive days the market is popping. Oil? The Fed?  - Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday, extending gains from Tuesday, as oil prices rose and investors got more comfortable with the prospect of an interest rate hike as early as this summer. Really? The market lost interest in the Fed soap opera last December. The US economy and the market survived that rate hike and the market...

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Contrarian trade – Time to invest in Europe?

Contrarian trade – Time to invest in Europe?

The US Fed may be getting closer to raising interest rates.  Fed Fund futures are now implying a 54% chance a rate increase.  So, the US Fed is focused on raising interest rates meanwhile the ECB is at the opposite end of the spectrum.  ECB President Mario Draghi is still in the “whatever it takes” mode to stimulate growth.  Considering that Draghi and Co are acting as a backstop to the EU...

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Crude Oil Reaching for $50: Now What?

Crude Oil Reaching for $50: Now What?

Crude oil spent time in both January and February this year trading below $30 per barrel.  Price is now closing in on $50 per barrel.  Where will this run higher end?  What are the important price locations for traders to know?  Glad you asked. Click here to watch a video explaining how to read markets using volume at price. Crude has nearby support established at 46.65 on any pullback with...

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Grains Trade Fear Before Fact: Soymeal Alert

Grains Trade Fear Before Fact: Soymeal Alert

The market will always trade fear before fact and that was the case in the soybean market this week especially in soy meal. Tightness concerns for meal due to ongoing weather issues in Argentina have rallied July soymeal futures over 44 percent in the last month. End users have been caught short bought on a global basis and a continued slow harvest advance in Argentina has funds,...

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Trade Alert: Sell An Iron Condor Before Memorial Day

Trade Alert: Sell An Iron Condor Before Memorial Day

The market certainly exhibited some volatility last week and seems like everyone wants to take a bit of a breather.  Another thing to keep in mind is that we have the Memorial Day holiday coming up on Monday.  When you have a holiday like Memorial Day it tend to act like a double day off as traders tend to take off early on Friday if nothing happens immediately off the open.  They get to...

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Buy Protection Now: Stock Market Under Distribution

Buy Protection Now: Stock Market Under Distribution

The stock market is under distribution, this is a fact. Simply put, professional selling overwhelms the buying and prices head lower.   As the markets ebb and flow with the money coming in/out we are constantly reminded about the psychological effects of a bear market.  Yes, even after the huge rally off the February lows this could still be considered a bear market.  Some of the strongest...

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Stock Market Now: Presidential Reprieve

Stock Market Now: Presidential Reprieve

Although our Lindsay work doesn’t call for a low until  this week, last Friday may have seen the beginning of the mid-May to early June bounce in equities that is expected in the eighth year of a Presidential term. A “reprieve” for the markets should not be confused with a “pardon” as it is only temporary. The early June high is then followed by a long decline into Nov/December in these...

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Why We Don’t Need A Gold Standard, There Is A Better Alternative

Why We Don’t Need A Gold Standard, There Is A Better Alternative

A highbrow is the kind of person who looks at a sausage and thinks of Picasso.A. P. Herbert The first reaction from the hard money camp would be to state we are insane or that we longer value hard money.  Taking that line of thought would only set you on the wrong track; we are not against hard money or the Gold standard. However, most of those in the hard money camp have a hard time dealing...

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Stocks: Slow Motion Correction Is Painful

Stocks: Slow Motion Correction Is Painful

What happens when market players are undecided but slowly but surely throw in the towel each day?  We have corrections, and they are slow like molasses.  Further, we had just become used to those swift, painful drops on high volume and rising volatility.  I suppose if you're going to be in pain, would you like your fingernails ripped out slowly, one at a time or quickly and all at once?  For...

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5 Truths To Create Trading Success: Look Within

5 Truths To Create Trading Success: Look Within

Access Your Spirit: No, I am not about to go all religious on you: The spirit I am talking about is that element of you that permeates everything. It is the engine of trading success. The opposite happens when you don access it: Frustration, hard work, a feeling of being disconnected from life and success are the typical tell tale signs. From a quantum physics perspective, spirit is the...

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Copper May Be Back On Declining Trend

Copper May Be Back On Declining Trend

In October, we posted a forecast that copper futures would make a significant bounce before resuming their trending decline. In March, April and May of this year, price tested the channel line harmonic that we had identified as possible resistance, and it has since fallen away strongly. This suggests that the next downward wave may have begun. The overall picture is one of a declining five...

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