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Trading The Jobs Number: Define Your Risk

Trading The Jobs Number: Define Your Risk

When I worked on the trading floor of the CME, the first Friday of the month meant one thing; Unemployment. That was short for the batch of numbers released by the Labor Department each month. Everyone working in the Eurodollar pit would be glued to the boards as the numbers were released at 7:30 AM Central. The data could cause a fast market in either direction, or sometimes both. Big money...

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See Volatility Through the Futures Market

See Volatility Through the Futures Market

The VIX has been quite low for a while, and as such we have noticed the extreme market volatility of early this year has been zapped away.  However, last week saw some volatility start to come back with a big jolt on Thursday and then some follow-through to end the week.  A market under distribution as we have seen of late can bring the volatility back in a big way, and it could be a game...

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Failed Crude Oil Rally Puts Market In Tricky Situation

Failed Crude Oil Rally Puts Market In Tricky Situation

June Crude Oil rallied during the overnight session for trade on Thursday, May 5 as fears of supply disruptions in Libya and Canada roiled the market. A stand-off between rival political factions in Libya stopped Glencore, a multinational commodity trading and mining company, from loading a 600,000 barrel supply of crude oil onto its tanker (The Seachance), and it left the port on its own...

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The Oil Crash is Coming, But No Worries, The World Is Different

The Oil Crash is Coming, But No Worries, The World Is Different

Market influences are myriad, but few have the power to truly crash the market like the biggies of 1929, 1987, and 2008. Prepare yourself for a market “crash” relative to the fall of 2002. Okay, so maybe the market won’t crash that hard, but prepare yourself for the media barrage that is beginning to emerge about the coming “crash”. - The rout in crude prices is snowballing into one of the...

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EuroSTOXX Upward Correction Finished?

EuroSTOXX Upward Correction Finished?

Along with the German DAX and the London FTSE, for which we posted charts in January and March, we also like to monitor the EuroSTOXX 50 Index for a view on the health of European equity. The Euro STOXX 50 Index is composed of 50 of the most liquid stocks throughout the Eurozone and comprises a majority of the market capitalization in the Eurozone, making it a good barometer for the zone as...

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Is Apple Stock (AAPL) Worth Buying?

Is Apple Stock (AAPL) Worth Buying?

The fifteen percent plunge in Apple stock price is all the news lately as most journalists have concentrated on the dramatic size loss of market capitalisation. This of course will always happen when you’re talking about an elephant with a market cap of over $600B before its recent drop. However, as long term investors and swing traders, these are the opportunities we patiently wait for,...

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Use This Old Trader's Trick To Spot Exits And Entries

Use This Old Trader's Trick To Spot Exits And Entries

  Reading price charts can be tricky. Get it right and you find yourself profitable almost immediately. Get it wrong and you sweat when the market moves against you, sowing FUD ... Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. And when your confidence is shaken, your trading is ruined too. But there’s an old trick traders have used for years to change their perspective on a trade, and give them an edge in...

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Gold And Silver: Backing And Filling After New 2016 High

Gold And Silver: Backing And Filling After New 2016 High

Both the Gold and Silver markets continued their upward surge last week with both markets posting their best gains and new 2016 highs to end the week on Friday April 29th. The impressive range up action in my view has been the result of ongoing weakness in the Dollar. It is also worth noting that there is growing concern that a soaring Yen due to continued financial concerns has also pushed...

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Should You Double Down On A Trade?

Should You Double Down On A Trade?

To roll or not to roll, that is the question.  I get this a lot in our room.  Invariably, it is when an expiring position is not working out for us.  “What can we do with our position in XYZ?  Can we cost average in?”  You name it.  A gambler calls it “doubling down”, a trader calls it “cost averaging”.  I don’t care what you call it, it’s the same thing.  There is nothing wrong with...

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Silver Alert: Hunting For Value

Silver Alert: Hunting For Value

As you may have noticed, we’ve been writing about our expectations of precious metals to head lower. While clearly, that hasn’t worked out for us the past week or so, there are two important points to consider. First, there’s always another move. Never let the fear of missing a trade force you into a position you’re uncomfortable with. You’ll screw it up, eventually. It’s simply the law of...

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Are U.S. 10-Year Notes Turning Negative?

Are U.S. 10-Year Notes Turning Negative?

TNX (the yield on the 10 year, US Treasury note) fell 3.65% to close at 18.19 on the 30-dma last week. Look for a bounce with equities early this week but don’t expect it to be sustained as the daily Coppock is still high enough to expect a top, not a bottom. Resistance is near 20.00. Look for support at Friday’s close. A break of this level opens the door for a return to the April low near...

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Warning! S&P 500 Chart Has Similar Pattern As 2008

Warning! S&P 500 Chart Has Similar Pattern As 2008

We often look at charts to find recognizable and repeatable patterns, hoping to take notice of a previous move that may have a high probability of happening again.  In the universe of technical analysis, there are a plethora of technical patterns with setups for both bullish and bearish plays.  You can find a nice sampling of those below.  But the important takeaway from the analysis is to...

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What The Puerto Rico Debt Default Means For US Stocks

What The Puerto Rico Debt Default Means For US Stocks

Puerto Rico defaulted on its debt yesterday, the first of what will be a series of defaults for the US territory. The effect on US equities – so far – has been invisible to the naked eye. Puerto Rico is America's Greece: burdened by a debt it has no hope of repaying, and unable to get a deal with its creditors because there is no legal structure available to declare bankruptcy, Congress is...

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Smart Money Investors Are Allocating Money To Gold

Smart Money Investors Are Allocating Money To Gold

Why Gold bugs need to stop listening to the fear mongers and start thinking for a change He that can have patience can have what he will. Benjamin Franklin We are still not convinced that Gold is fully out of the woods.  Peter Schiff is busy telling everyone that it was a bad idea to have sold Gold in 2011, we beg to differ for the trend indicates otherwise, and so does the price of Gold. ...

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Buy Crude Oil Dips: Target $50 Barrel

Buy Crude Oil Dips: Target $50 Barrel

June Crude Oil continued its trek higher today (Thursday, April 28) rebounding off its overnight low of 44.94 and making a new high at 46.14. Traders reacted to a plunging US dollar as it broke down through the 94.00 mark and closed near the April lows of 93.62 at 93.725. The Dollar fell as the Japanese Central Bank shocked the market by leaving interest rates alone after implying last week...

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