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Showing Posts 1 - 13 out of 13 found.

A Closer Look At Wheat Ratios

A Closer Look At Wheat Ratios

Wheat export sales came in at 469-thousand metric tons, up 43% from the week prior.  The week prior was a marketing year low.  We had our usual spatter of Asian customers buying small amounts of wheat at a cash discount.  World-wheat buyer Egypt came in for 175-thousand metric tons as part of last week’s US line of credit offered and special incentives.  The announcement of their purchase...

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Corporate Debt, A Market Play?

Corporate Debt, A Market Play?

Today Actavis (ACT) issued $21 billion in bonds, the second biggest bond deal ever.  Given low interest rates globally, it makes sense for companies to issue debt.  However, according to research from Goldman Sachs (source:ZeroHedge), corporations have been the largest buyers of their own stock.  For example, in 2014 Goldman estimates $415B of net inflows into equities from corporates.  It's...

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Watch For Shifts In Commercial Traders’ Biases

Watch For Shifts In Commercial Traders’ Biases

One of the primary differences between professional traders and amateur speculators is that professional traders are only focused on the bottom line while novice traders typically find themselves in love with the story of a trade and are far more concerned with “calling the move.” It is this mentality that also leads new traders down the illusive path of homerun-hitting trading programs....

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: In Limbo For A Bit

Futures Market Review and Forecast: In Limbo For A Bit

The S&P 500 made a nominal new all-time high on Tuesday, which is a bullish development. The upside target is 2118, but the irrationally exuberant gap at 2070 still beckons. Both targets will probably be attained; it’s just a question of which occurs first. Markets like to “head-fake” at times like this, so don’t assume the next little breakout or breakdown is real.  A Note on Volume...

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The Week Ahead For The QQQ And The Spy

The Week Ahead For The QQQ And The Spy

Last week the market got back to 2014 levels with big gains for all major market indices. The S&P 500 was up 2%, the DJIA up close to 1%,  and the latter tested the 18,000 area for the first time since last year. Oil prices bottomed and started to climb. The question is: Will the market continue higher? A look at the major market indices might give us a clue as to where the market will...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: 2088 Target Attained

Futures Market Review and Forecast: 2088 Target Attained

The upside target at 2088 was fully attained on Friday, with the S&P 500 making a new all-time high for extra measure. The aggressive rally through the “speed zone” left a gap at 2070, which now beckons.   That said, an overshoot to 2118 has about an 80% probability. The only question is which one happens first?   A Note on Volume Profile The histogram on the left side of the chart shows...

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A Bearish Play On The April Loonie

A Bearish Play On The April Loonie

The volatility in the crude-oil market over the last few months makes many people hesitant to participate. The wild swings in short time frames can test any trader’s will power to stay with their position. Buying options can define risk, but the rewards don’t come as quickly all the time. The Canadian Dollar is often viewed as a commodity currency. What that means is that movements in the...

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A Conservative Play On Wheat

A Conservative Play On Wheat

Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 397-thousand metric tons of wheat was sold last week, down 27% from the week prior.  Key world buyer Egypt purchased 300-thousand metric tons from France and Romania this week.  The United States still remains a third or fourth port of origin for wheat for human consumption.  Asian countries were the main buyers in purchasing wheat at a discount...

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Oil, Could It Go To $20?

Oil, Could It Go To $20?

I have an idea – let’s talk oil. Aside from Greece and Ukraine, it is one of the hot market topics of the, day, uh ... week, no, month, year? In any case, oil is hot, and with the current uptick in prices, one has to ask – is the fall in prices over? Me? Well, you know my position. Oil has become subject to fundamentals, generally speaking. Now, having said that, the current uptick in prices...

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Commercial Buyers Supporting Cattle

Commercial Buyers Supporting Cattle

The live cattle futures market has been driven by overseas demand and declining domestic supplies. The broader news regarding generational lows in herd sizes has been offset a bit by the domestic decline in U.S. red meat consumption, which probably set another record low for 2014. The cattle market has been in a multi-year uptrend and is finally providing a meaningful test of the market’s...

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Oil, QE, Europe, And ETFs

Oil, QE, Europe, And ETFs

It is difficult to watch the market day in and day out and not pay attention to the plight of oil. This reality kindles in me a spark of compunction, a sense of regret that I, writing daily about the market movement, am compelled to write about oil. Actually, my reality is such that I must write about not only oil, but the other headlines that might, or might not, actually be the underlying...

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The Correction In AbbVie Stock Could Be Nearing An End

The Correction In AbbVie Stock Could Be Nearing An End

AbbVie (ABBV) shares, a $92B pharmaceutical company which has products that treat Crohn’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, thyroid disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and other chronic auto-immune diseases, are on pace for their seventh consecutive weekly loss. This week’s tumble comes after the $148B Gilead Science announced an increase in the amount of discounts to their Hep C drug, Sovalid, this...

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ESH5: Monday Late Ramp Recovers Friday Losses

ESH5: Monday Late Ramp Recovers Friday Losses

The S&P500 mini-futures (ESH5) are starting to show the kind of volatile price swings that make experienced traders think the market is reaching a major inflection point. In the last three trading days, the ESH5 closed at 2018 on Thursday (Jan. 29); at 1988.50 on Friday (Jan. 30); and at 2012.50 yesterday (Feb. 2). The daily range for those three days totaled about 115 points. The net...

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