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Don’t Be Fooled By This Strength In GOOG

Don’t Be Fooled By This Strength In GOOG

With Google's (GOOGL's) earnings release date just around the corner (January 29th), I thought I'd take a close look at the daily and weekly charts in hopes of offering a useful technical interpretation of the price action on both the intermediate and short-term time frames.  The daily chart below sports a bullish BAT harmonic pattern that confirmed on two separate occasions by dropping...

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Time To Buy The Dip In Morgan Stanley?

Time To Buy The Dip In Morgan Stanley?

On January 20th, Morgan Stanley (MS) reported lighter than expected Q4 EPS and revenue, initially sending shares down 3% that morning. The company has actively been buying back shares (repurchased 8M shares in Q4 for $271M) and following an 11% dip in just three weeks, this could be another opportunity for management to put their plan to good use. MS currently trades at a P/E ratio of 10.56x...

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Time To Look At Netflix Again

Time To Look At Netflix Again

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is scheduled to release its fourth quarter earnings report today following the close of the market session.  Consensus analyst estimates are forecasting earnings per share of $0.45 on overall revenues of $1.48 billion.  The same quarter one year prior (Q4 2013) saw EPS of $0.66 on $1.18 billion in revenue.  NFLX shares are off by a modest 0.8% in 2015, but the stock has...

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Beware! The Attack Of The Killer VIX

Beware! The Attack Of The Killer VIX

Back in 1978, the “Attack of the Killer Tomatoes” was released, a spoof of low-budget sci-fi films –  oozing tomatoes go on the rampage, splattering innocent victims.  It seems the VIX (volatility index) is doing the same sort of destruction. So far in 2015 volatility has been the big winner, and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight. Higher volatility is not a problem; in fact it...

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When Odds And Value Are On Your Side, Make The Bet

When Odds And Value Are On Your Side, Make The Bet

Let’s pretend for a moment that I don’t know more than the market does …  I am of the school of thought that the sum of all known pricing factors at any given point in time is reflected in the stock price.  So, if this is true, this makes trading on earnings a binary event.  New information is introduced to the market and price moves accordingly (up or down and usually quickly).  If you have...

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Time To Fade The Rally In Treasuries

Time To Fade The Rally In Treasuries

Throughout most of 2014, the trade to make in U.S. bonds was from the long side (even in the first two weeks of this year), but now the trade is starting to get crowded in the near-term. The bid to cover ratio of Wednesday’s $13B 30-year bond auction was 2.32 vs the average of 2.49 (December’s high was 2.76). This reflects a weakening demand for long-dated treasuries. Looking at the...

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Volatility? Buy The E-Mini S&P 500

Volatility? Buy The E-Mini S&P 500

You want some volatility? Be careful what you wish for. We are getting our fair share so far this year, with a little added extra today thanks to the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB’s surprise announcement they will stop capping the Swiss Franc against the Euro, and reducing interest rates gave the markets a big jolt. The effects of the Swiss move showed up across the board, and in domino...

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Make Your Own Calls, Despite The Market Moves

Make Your Own Calls, Despite The Market Moves

Trading can be a fickle game.  As a trader, I reserve my right to change my mind, basically, whenever I choose because the markets (and our perceptions of the markets) can and do change on a dime.  For example, look at how my attempted play in Monster Beverage (MNST) went down earlier this week.  I had a technical signal generated​ that "triggered" at $109.90.  I identified a long call...

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Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Crude Volatility Explodes With Crashing Oil Prices

Since the peak in June 2013, the price of a barrel of oil has dropped nearly 60% to under $50, and it seems no end is in sight.  Supply continues to exceed demand and that is within a decent economic growth pattern.  Some analysts predict growth could slow sharply in the year ahead, and that would sap demand for crude even more.  Yet, more supply comes online each day as the producers see...

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A Bearish Play on Cooling Oil Prices

A Bearish Play on Cooling Oil Prices

The weather in Chicago lately resembles the trend in crude oil; it just keeps dropping. As we have seen crude oil drop below $50 a barrel, the temperature here has broken 0 degrees, and is down to -30 degrees with the wind-chill. I’m a big fan of one of those trends, not so much a fan of the other. There has been much debate lately on whether the lower prices in crude are good for the...

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Big Call Buying In Aaron’s Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Big Call Buying In Aaron’s Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Aaron’s (AAN) is a $2B specialty retailer that leases and sells anything from home furniture and fridges to Dell laptops and TV’s. The stock is still recovering from a disappointing year in which earnings dropped double digits and the share price is still off about 20% from the June highs. This year is setting up to be a better year, as revenues are likely to top the $3B mark and EPS are set...

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Back to the Future A Play in USO

Back to the Future A Play in USO

Crude oil’s precipitous drop from its June highs has yet to show signs of abating. The U.S. oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is down over 3% again today following Monday’s downside move.  Now trading below $50, oil has moved to a new five and one-half year low, a move estimated to save the average American over $1400 annually and bolster consumer discretionary spending. ...

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Twitter 2015 – A Wave Analysis

Twitter 2015 – A Wave Analysis

After experiencing the "new member" process, just about every Social Networking "fraternity pledge" has had to worry about what lies ahead at the initiation ceremony. Facebook (FB) was certainly no stranger to this process, and now it is another darling joining in – Twitter (TWTR). In the chart below, TWTR's fall from grace is shown to have started in late December 2013 on the heels of a...

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Protect Yourself – Be Honest

Protect Yourself – Be Honest

Reward to risk analysis is only as good as your ability to define the reward and define the risk but then to also be conservative (honest) in your parameters.  For example, stock XYZ that continues to make all-time-high after all-time-high and the trade is  an upside play using a call vertical spread.  Since it is making new highs, technical analysis gives us very little guidance, as it will...

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Look to Strangle Gold Into The New Year

Look to Strangle Gold Into The New Year

Risk aversion among year-end buyers and short-covering boosted gold futures early this week, but the rally could be short-lived, with the stronger dollar keeping a lid on further gains. Gold futures jumped almost two percent, breaking above the key $1,200-per-ounce level, as traders used Tuesday’s weaker dollar as an excuse to buy. Worries about Greece's election outcome and tensions between...

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