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Softs Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 18 found.

December LIve Cattle Futures: Trading Idea September 15, 2014

Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices have backed well down from the recent contract high, including scoring a significantly bearish “key reversal” down, which is an early clue of a market top being in place. Prices also closed at a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Consider buying a put option...

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COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

I’ve been working with the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders’ Data for many years and the most consistent results have typically been following in the commercial traders’ footpaths. This is exactly what Larry Williams refers to when he talks about, “trading with the elephants.” Trading system design comes from finding a fundamental premise about the markets and testing it going forward. I am...

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December Live Cattle Futures: Trading Idea September 10, 2014

Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices have pushed to a new high. However, the Relative Strength Index has also pushed into overbought territory (above 70.00). The last time the RSI pushed above 70.00 the market put in a near-term top. Also, there now exists the potential for a big and bearish...

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December ICE Cotton Futures: Trading Idea September 9, 2014

December Cotton Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December cotton futures that prices have sold off recently and negated a fledgling uptrend line. The bears have regained downside technical momentum to suggest a fresh leg down in prices in the near term. A move below chart support at 64.00 cents would become a selling opportunity. The...

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Rally In Aussie Futures Fails

Rally In Aussie Futures Fails

One currency pair I've been bullish on this year is the Aussie dollar's value to the greenback. However, the drop in Aussie futures yesterday and today changes that outlook. This market now appears to be in danger of tracing out a large top that could spell losses in the intermediate term. Aussie futures started to consolidate at the beginning of July. This looked constructive at the time,...

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December Cocoa Futures: Trading Idea September 8, 2014

December Cocoa Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness  See on the daily bar chart for December ICE cocoa futures that prices have sold off sharply recently and on Monday hit a six-week low. The bears have quickly gained downside technical momentum to suggest prices will continue to trend sideways to lower in the near term. A move below chart support at Monday morning’s low of...

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Soft Commodity Markets a Mixed Bag at Present

SOFTS: October sugar closed down 49 points at 15.13 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a contract low today. Prices also saw a bearish downside “breakout” from the choppy trading range at lower price levels, which suggests a fresh leg down in prices to come. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old downtrend is in place on the...

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Livestock Futures Bulls Make Impressive Recovery

 LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $1.20 at 152.60 Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at $155.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and...

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Livestock Market Bears in Control

LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $0.37 at 147.87 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $149.37. The...

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October ICE Sugar Futures: Trading Idea August 27, 2014

October ICE Sugar Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness  See on the daily bar chart for October ICE sugar futures that prices are in a steep downtrend and this week hit a contract low. The bears are in solid near-term technical command to suggest still more downside price pressure to come. A move below chart support at this week’s low of 15.30 cents would become a selling...

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Energy Market Bulls Continue to Struggle

ENERGIES: October Nymex crude oil closed up $0.51 at $93.86 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering in a bear market. Crude oil bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid chart resistance...

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October Lean Hogs Futures: Trading Idea August 25, 2014

October Lean Hog Futures a Selling Opportunity on Fresh Price Weakness  See on the daily bar chart for October lean hog futures that prices are in a steep downtrend and the bears have the solid technical advantage. A move below chart support at $92.00 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $80.00, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a...

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December Cotton Futures: Trading Idea August 22, 2014

December cotton futures a buying opportunity on more price strength.   See on the daily bar chart for December cotton futures that prices have made a good rebound from the recent contract low and on Thursday hit a four-week high. Prices are now in a fledgling uptrend. A close above chart resistance at 67.00 cents would give the bulls better upside technical momentum and it would also become...

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Livestock Market Bears in Control

LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $1.70 at 145.52 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 2.5-month low today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as today’s price action produced a downside “breakout” from a bear flag pattern on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at $150.00. The next downside...

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Trading Tactics: Use Resting Stops To Trigger Entries Into Sugar

Trading Tactics: Use Resting Stops To Trigger Entries Into Sugar

The October sugar futures contract has gone nowhere but down since becoming the lead month near the end of June. Some of this has been due to seasonality and some of it has to do with the considerable resistance that has built up between $.19-.20 per pound area. However, both of these may be currently working in favor of the long side. Seasonal Factors At Play The typical October sugar...

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