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Softs Commentaries

Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 21 found.

December Live Cattle Futures: Trading Idea October 29, 2014

Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that recent price action at higher levels has been volatile. This is a warning signal of a topping process. This is also a very mature bull market run in cattle futures. Consider buying a put option on December live cattle futures, with a downside price objective of...

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Softs Markets Bears Gain Technical Strength

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 10 points at 16.13 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering. Sugar bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 16.75 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices...

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March ICE Futures: Trading Idea October 28, 2014

March Cotton Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for March cotton futures that price action recently has been choppy and sideways, and in a narrow range. This pause after the recent downtrend is not bullish. A move in prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of 61.35 cents would give the bears fresh downside technical momentum and it...

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December Corn Futures: Trading Idea October 27, 2014

December Corn Futures a Buying Opportunity on More Price Strength See on the daily bar chart for December corn futures that prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend and last week hit a seven-week high. A move above resistance at $3.60 would give the bulls some fresh upside momentum and it would also become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $4.00, or above....

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December Live Cattle Futures: Trading Idea October 14, 2014

December Live Cattle Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices late last week dropped sharply and produced a bearish “key reversal” down and also closed at a bearish weekly low close. Those are two technical clues the cattle market has topped out. A move in prices below chart support at Friday’s low of...

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Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

Global Growth Concerns Weigh On Cocoa, But Classic Buy Signal Seen

The recent sell off in the cocoa futures market has created a classic Commitment of Traders buy signal. Big Picture Outlook Furthermore, this trade is a textbook description of commercial trader behavior and the tools we use in their analysis. Jumping right in, the cocoa market is near its highest levels since early 2011. Obviously, this puts us above any long-term averages and well above...

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December ICE Coffee Futures: Trading Idea September 26, 2014

December ICE Coffee Another Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December ICE coffee futures that prices this week popped higher but the gains were quickly erased, as the bears continue to have the overall near-term technical advantage. A move in prices below solid chart support at this month’s low of 1.7640 would give the bears better downside momentum...

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Livestock Futures Markets Still Mostly Bullish

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.30 at 159.07 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. More mild short covering was featured. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $160.82. The...

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December Cotton Futures: Trading Idea September 24, 2014

December Cotton Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December ICE cotton futures that prices have sold off sharply recently and on Wednesday hit a contract low. Bears are back in solid technical command to suggest still more downside price pressure. A move below chart support at Wednesday’s low of 61.07 cents would become a selling opportunity....

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Livestock Futures Markets Still Mostly Bullish

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed steady at 158.70 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices are in a two-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $160.82. The next downside technical...

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December ICE Coffee Futures: Trading Idea September 22, 2014

December ICE Coffee Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December coffee currency that prices Monday hit a two-month low and hit seen a downside “breakout” from a bear flag pattern. A move below chart support at Monday’s low of 1.7640 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.5750 or below. Technical...

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December Lean Hog Futures: Trading Idea September 18, 2014

December Lean Hog Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness See on the daily bar chart for December lean hog futures that prices have backed down from the recent high as the bulls have faded. A move below chart support at Thursday’s low of $91.77 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $85.00 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a...

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Soft Commodity Market Action Favors the Bulls

FOOD & FIBER December coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at...

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December LIve Cattle Futures: Trading Idea September 15, 2014

Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices have backed well down from the recent contract high, including scoring a significantly bearish “key reversal” down, which is an early clue of a market top being in place. Prices also closed at a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Consider buying a put option...

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COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

I’ve been working with the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders’ Data for many years and the most consistent results have typically been following in the commercial traders’ footpaths. This is exactly what Larry Williams refers to when he talks about, “trading with the elephants.” Trading system design comes from finding a fundamental premise about the markets and testing it going forward. I am...

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