Sign inRecent Commentaries tagged (statistical-thinking)
Casino Math Makes Trend Followers Happy
Casino math (PDF) may be the most important wisdom you can know to be a successful trend follower. In fact, I feature much of this thinking in my documentary film. ShareThis
Statistically Challenged
I received an email today with the subject heading of: The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History by George Zuckerman (it is a book) The email said: This guy made like $24B in two years. More than all the combined...
Efficient Market Bullshit
I love it when people tell me the trend following ‘winners’ are the lucky survivors. In my humble opinion people who think like that are either ignorant in the short-term willing to learn/be corrected or, and I say this bluntly, losers in life unable to accept reality. If trend following winners...
Throwing the Book at Moneyball
Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball was great, but the big market clubs have closed the edge down. ShareThis
A Wrong Direction
All that brain power going to all the wrong ways to trade the markets. Reacting to market moves must not stimulate ‘em enough! ShareThis
Why Do People Play the Lottery?
They play because of stories like this. An excerpt: If this were a movie, nobody would believe it: A rancher struggling to eke out a living in one of the poorest corners of America claimed one of the biggest undivided jackpots in U.S. lottery history Friday - $232 million - after buying the...
Monkeys Ponder What Could Have Been
It’s a good thing monkeys can’t gamble. New research shows these primates are capable of “woulda-coulda-shoulda” thoughts, like those that keep gamblers at the tables. Hmmm. Some people have questioned why I would cover the love affair with the lottery in a film about money and markets. Isn’t it...
Lotto Makes Sense, Even for Losers
Supposedly, I should now not rip lottery players: A 2002 nationwide survey found that lotteries are by far the most popular form of gambling, with some 66 percent of United States adults having played in the previous year, and 13 percent on a weekly basis. The question is why. Mega officials put...
Kenny on Folding
Kudos to John Mauldin for slipping this in his newsletter today: You got to know when to hold ‘em know when to fold ‘em Know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table. There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealings done- Kenny...
Dunn Capital Lesson for the Buy and Hopers
The most recent review of my book “Trend Following” on Amazon is this: For 200 pages you read how much trend followers made, trend followers are so great, they are always winners…. It’s almost like the book is promoting some money managers. Seriously the book is pretty bad, I almost feel...
