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Futures Market Review and Forecast: 2027 is Key Pivot Level

Futures Market Review and Forecast: 2027 is Key Pivot Level

On Thursday, the S&P futures bounced nicely off the first target at 1984. The bounce was strong enough to shoot price near the now familiar 2027 level, which is now operating like a pivot during this consolidation.  2027 is now key resistance. A move above 2027 that holds for more than an hour is likely to be significant…. meaning the end of the correction. A Note on Volume Profile The...

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SPX: Nice Ride, But A Little Wild

SPX: Nice Ride, But A Little Wild

On Monday (Jan. 26), we warned that US equity markets were nervous, and vulnerable to bad news. Tuesday we saw just how vulnerable. What will happen on Wednesday? More of the same is our guess. Lots of volatility, especially around the Fed Open Market Committee minutes, which will be released at 2:00 pm. Despite the selling panic at the start of the day, we remain cautiously bullish. Tuesday...

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Looking For a Trend Change in FSLR

Looking For a Trend Change in FSLR

The market has not been kind to the solar space. Considering the success of the companies is loosely tied to coal, and commodities have not done well recently, it makes sense that weakness has come into that space. But there are some signs that sellers are running out of energy here. While FSLR is making new marginal lows, the RSI is making new higher lows. This indicates that momentum is...

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Will the “Floor” Hold?

Will the “Floor” Hold?

The 2061 “Ceiling” level was not tested on Tuesday due to the gap down in the markets, ostensibly from a shortfall in earnings and durable goods orders. If a “Ceiling” is rejected, you can bet the “Floor” will be tested, and that’s exactly what happened on Tuesday. It was briefly undercut, but an important downtrend line held (Trendline #2) and provided a platform for a bounce. In post...

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Time To Start Looking Short?

Time To Start Looking Short?

Last week, I said it was time to start looking long.  The actual turn date, which was identified in December, was January 15th, which marked the exact low. Since last week’s article for TraderPlanet (click here), the SPX has rallied some 60 points. Not bad for a quick trade. But now, is it time to start shorting? The answer to that question all depends on your time frame. If you are a quick...

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QQQ Shapes Up After Pullback

QQQ Shapes Up After Pullback

A relative strength analysis versus the S&P 500 shows large-cap technology stocks have been outperforming the broader market since 2007. There isn't any sign of that changing. Within the context of the cyclical bull market, QQQ (PowerShares QQQ Trust) peaked in late November and began to pull back. After multiple tests of technical support attracted buyers, the reward-to-risk scenario...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: Looking For a Retest Of 2061

Futures Market Review and Forecast: Looking For a Retest Of 2061

On Sunday evening, the S&P 500 futures sold off quickly and approached the 2023 level I mentioned as the lower target zone for Monday. Early in Monday’s day session the upper level of that target zone (2035) was tested and the market passed the test. You can see this level on the chart at left circled in green. This puts the 2061 “ceiling” level in play as a target. If the S&P...

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Positioning Money For The Future

Positioning Money For The Future

As I have written so many times, this is a brave new a world of changing technologies, changing so quickly that the markets hardly can keep up. In fact, they can’t, which suggests investors need to get ahead of the market, to find out what is the next big thing to get your money into. Okay, so there are many new “big” things to get you money into, but when you break it down fundamentally,...

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George Lindsay’s 8-year Interval

George Lindsay’s 8-year Interval

The late technician, George Lindsay described an 8-year interval as part of his 22-year Overlay (An Aid to Timing, SeattleTA Press, 2012). He wrote that the high (or “moment of truth”) at the end of the interval is often followed by a harsh 2-3 month decline followed by an approximate 5-month rally in equities. With the Dec 2014 high marking eight years, five months since the low in July...

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THE NEXT MOVE IN THE STOCK INDICES

THE NEXT MOVE IN THE STOCK INDICES

The stock-index futures remain above critical supports (red arrows) and below the recent highs (green arrows).  A move above the January highs is needed in order to prove that a sustained rally is underway.  A breach of the support levels (red arrows) would instead shift the bias in stocks to firmly bearish.  I anticipate the resolution of these ranges in the stock indices will lead to a...

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S&P Futures Market Review: Looking for Support at 2023

S&P Futures Market Review: Looking for Support at 2023

On Friday the S&P 500 futures respected the “ceiling” at 2061 and began a correction, as expected. As noted on Thursday, “The 2061 level has been in place for several months. It’s an area where we can expect selling to occur.” The downside target for the correction is the zone between 2023 and 2035. As there is a decent volume peak at 2023 on the Volume Profile, that is the presumed...

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Is The Market Going Back To Normal?

Is The Market Going Back To Normal?

For the first time in some time, I feel the market is behaving normally. I am not sure why I feel this way, but somehow the market action today feels right. I suspect it is the VIX going down, along with the Dow (incrementally), while the Russell 2000 is going up. That just feels right, as if it is the way to go now after all of the recent volatility. The US dollar going up and remaining on...

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Remove Uncertainty and the Fear Goes Away

Remove Uncertainty and the Fear Goes Away

If there is one thing markets hate it is uncertainty.  Yet, we find ourselves constantly in a vacuum of the unknown, and with the news flow being so quick these days (Internet and 24-hour news outlets), well there is just no time to take a breath.  So far in 2015, we’ve seen a big rise in volatility across the VIX term structure (see chart below) as the market is pricing in more...

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Don’t Be Fooled By This Strength In GOOG

Don’t Be Fooled By This Strength In GOOG

With Google's (GOOGL's) earnings release date just around the corner (January 29th), I thought I'd take a close look at the daily and weekly charts in hopes of offering a useful technical interpretation of the price action on both the intermediate and short-term time frames.  The daily chart below sports a bullish BAT harmonic pattern that confirmed on two separate occasions by dropping...

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S&P Futures Market Review: Knocking on the Ceiling

S&P Futures Market Review: Knocking on the Ceiling

On Thursday, the S&P 500 futures followed through on the anticipated move up to the 2051-2061 zone.  The key level now is 2061. That level is determined by the small green peak on the volume profile seen on the left side of the chart below. The 2061 level has been in place for several months. It’s an area where we can expect selling to occur. This profile encompasses more than a year of...

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