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US Stocks Are Near A Low: Here's Why

US Stocks Are Near A Low: Here's Why

The Hybrid Lindsay forecast calling for a high in the Dow near Wednesday (July 15) of that week (A Low In The Dow: A Long Hot July) was successful even if a day early. Although both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continued their advance until the following Monday, the Dow Industrials index printed its high on July 16. That week’s Commentary also mentioned the forecast for a low during the period...

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Brace For More Stock Market Volatility

Brace For More Stock Market Volatility

Last week Well, it was fun while it lasted. The S&P500, the large-cap index, had a nice little mid-summer rally going at the start of the week, up about 90 points in eight days, moving from the low end of the three-month channel to make a two-month high last Monday, just a couple of points below the all-time record. Sweet summer. And then it fell apart. There were new concerns, based not...

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Google And Apple Earnings: Time To Buy?

Google And Apple Earnings: Time To Buy?

So Google barely meets earnings expectations, misses on revenues and jumps 16% post earnings, while Apple also beats earnings and revenues but drops 6%.  The bi-polar reaction to similar results has less to do with the actual earnings and more to do with timing, psychology and expectations. What gives here?  We find the answers lie in options and expectations.  Simply put, when implied...

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Is Gold Dead? Timing The Top In US Stocks

Is Gold Dead? Timing The Top In US Stocks

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was originally created in November of 2004, when the fund was listed under the name StreetTRACKS Gold Shares on the New York Stock Exchange. It was sponsored by State Street Global Advisors and the World Gold Council. Shares have traded under the SPDR name since May of 2008. Unlike most other commodity ETFs, which use futures contracts, the fund is a trust and holds...

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How Traders Can Survive In Today's Techno World

How Traders Can Survive In Today's Techno World

Information and the inherent volatility of the markets has been a staple of the industry for centuries.  The major shift within capital markets is the speed of information delivery and the unpredictable nature of the market reaction to the underlying knowledge of the subject matter.  No longer can a trader or investor rely upon the notion that information is disseminated orderly and...

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Weak Earnings Murder US Stock Prices

Weak Earnings Murder US Stock Prices

The second quarter earnings season isn’t working very well for US stocks. The big hitters like Caterpillar and 3M followed IBM in reporting earnings that disappointed the Street and murdered the stock price. The Dow traded below the opening price for the year, and dragged the S&P and the index futures (ES) down with it. The S&P500 mini-futures (ES) spent most of the day in red...

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Chinese Baidu: Brace For More Losses (BIDU)

Chinese Baidu: Brace For More Losses (BIDU)

Since the Greek crisis has been averted (Ha!), we can now get back to business.  China has its own set of issues that eclipses the Greek problems by orders of magnitude.  China’s potential pitfalls include: a massive housing bubble, commodity prices cratering, and a very tenuous stock market whose growth has been driven by under-capitalized, over-leveraged, retail traders, many of whom have...

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How To Win At Trading: Think Less, Win More

How To Win At Trading: Think Less, Win More

I teach trading in order to learn it better. Often, the most valuable insights about how the markets work, and how to best work with them, seem to reflect the principles of sports psychology. I’m not a sports psychologist, however, but I am a competitive tennis player, so I live sports psychology on the weekends. At team practice on Monday night only 4 of us showed up, so we had a...

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Smart Stock Traders Buy On The Dip

Smart Stock Traders Buy On The Dip

This is what buying the dips looks like. The S&P500 mini futures (ES) gapped down sharply overnight.  But as soon as the day session opened, new buyers started entering the market on volume just above the 2100 support level. The low for the day 2102.25, was made in the early session, and the price recovered from that point on. The futures stayed red all day, but closed well off the lows...

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Stocks: Qlik Technologies Poised For Big Move

Stocks: Qlik Technologies Poised For Big Move

Qlik Technologies is the $3.4B data visualization software company that offers products such as QlikView and Qlik Sense. On April 23rd, they reported Q1 EPS of -$0.09 vs the Wall Street consensus estimate of -$0.14 on revenue of $120.3M vs the $113.9M estimate (+23% ex currency on a year over year basis). Given the projected acceleration in earnings (42% this year to 53% in 2016) and sales...

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Why Bother With Risk Management?

Why Bother With Risk Management?

The only way a trader is going to make money is to put money on the line and risk losing some or all of it. It’s the very nature of the business but not one that anyone finds easy to cope with as the inherent risk is stressful and most people are risk adverse. However we take risks in all aspects of our life every single day. Driving the car, flying, going down stairs, riding your bike, you...

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US Stock Earnings Disappoint: What Now?

US Stock Earnings Disappoint: What Now?

Several of the stock market heavyweights reported Q2 earnings yesterday (notably IBM and United Technologies Corp UTX) and the results were not pleasing. The DJIA was red all day long, and dropped 181.12 points at the close.  The S&P 500 and the mini-futures (ES) both caught the contagion and ended lower. The mini futures (ESU5) closed the day at 2114.50, 4.25 points below the previous...

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The Price Of “Things” Vs. Treasury Yields

The Price Of “Things” Vs. Treasury Yields

See below— a chart of the CRB index (red line) versus the ten year treasury yield, white line.  As you can see, the relationship between the two is sometimes tight and sometimes a bit on the loose side.   From the second half of 2014 to the beginning of this year the relationship was pretty tight.  However, as 2015 has progressed, there has been more and more of a divergence.  The CRB is...

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US Stocks: Are You "All In" Or "All Out?"

US Stocks: Are You "All In" Or "All Out?"

In this “all-in” “all-out” market environment, it is obvious that we are in the “all-in” phase. And sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, we have traders again, jumping in at the exact wrong time. Most have watched and done nothing or were shorting the ramp higher off the lows. But now that the bulls have been able to hold things up at the high-traders are finally believing this is for real....

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Hack Your Profits From This ETF: HACK

Hack Your Profits From This ETF: HACK

It seems like every other day there is an announcement of a data security breach – in the first half of 2014 there were 395 breaches alone with some major companies being compromised like Target, Niemen Marcus and Nuclear Regulatory Authority.  Three separate universities (Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa State) were victims of security breaches where the hackers gained access to Social Security...

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