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Trading Apple and Netflix? Wait For the Panic

Trading Apple and Netflix? Wait For the Panic

Icarus Descending? In 2004 Benoit Mandelbrot, the inventor of fractal math, wrote an interesting book titled The Misbehavior of Markets. In a nutshell, his theory says that the  standard deterministic model of cause and effect (Newtonian thinking) does not apply to financial markets.   He notes, “The precise mechanism that links news to price, cause to effect, is mysterious and...

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Fasten Your Seatbelt: The Stock Volatility Isn't Over Yet

Fasten Your Seatbelt: The Stock Volatility Isn't Over Yet

A few weeks back I wrote how I felt that this August had a different feeling than usual. Little did I know what was in store. End of summer, Europe on traditional holiday, tend to bring slow markets and long days with them.  Obviously this year was a just a little bit different. To say the last two weeks have been volatile is a just a bit of an understatement. Some of the moves we saw last...

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Time To Jump Back Into The Markets?

Time To Jump Back Into The Markets?

Following up on my piece last week Is Another GFC Starting Now?, a quick V shaped recovery eventuated, only to give most of the gains back. Whether you decide to enter the markets now will depend on the type of investor you actually are. For me, I am both a traditional ‘Value’ investor as well as a ‘Growth’ investor as I have created two different portfolios. The difference? As a value...

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Look Out! The VIX Spells Trouble

Look Out! The VIX Spells Trouble

The sharp sell-off in the stock indices and the sharp spike in VIX spells trouble ahead. This sell-off in the SPX accompanied by a spike in the VIX has come after a lengthy period of low VIX readings just like in late 2007.  In that instance, the initial spikes in the VIX above 24 were an early warning to the price damage that was to follow. Looking at the chart below, I don’t believe the...

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Is Monsanto Lost In The Weeds?

Is Monsanto Lost In The Weeds?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com). Six big firms dominate the agricultural supply business today, having bought up over 200 smaller companies and their intellectual property over the past 25 years or so. Monsanto, the world’s largest seed supplier, and BASF both reportedly tried to buy rival Syngenta. Though no deals went...

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It’s China, Not The Employment Data

It’s China, Not The Employment Data

At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual.    -Stanley Fischer, from his Jackson Hole speech. The World Series!  A few times I have been around non-Americans who sort of chuckle at that phrase, because it has nothing to do with the world, it’s purely American.  In a sense, the...

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Tesla: Outselling BMW 4:1?

Tesla: Outselling BMW 4:1?

Yesterday —Aug. 31— the Nasdaq 100 was down almost 2%, biotech was slammed more than 3%, Netflix (NFLX) was trimmed 3%, but shares of Tesla (TSLA) held up rather well, off 0.5%. Future market leaders begin to outperform during bearish periods and Tesla may be showing signs of that potential.    The Tesla Model S is making an impact in Europe during a period when sales of larger luxury...

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Could Big Economic Data Jolt Stocks This Week?

Could Big Economic Data Jolt Stocks This Week?

The bounce from last week’s awesome destruction in the S&P500 mini-futures (ES) stalled Monday at the 10-day moving average line, the first of the resistance levels we identified in our weekend report. The futures closed at 1969.25, down 20.50 points for the day and 129.25 points for the month, the biggest monthly loss in five years. Fear of slow growth in China continues to haunt many...

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Learn How To Make Some Real Money Trading

Learn How To Make Some Real Money Trading

You can pretend to trade in the theoretical world but at some point if you want actual money, you are going to have to trade in the actual world.  You have a lot of things to consider.  Bid/ask spreads, volume, open interest and even regulatory issues.  There is FINRA regulation out there known as “PDT Margin requirement”.  PDT stands for “pattern day trader” and if you have less than...

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Brace Yourself: The Worst Isn’t Over For US Stocks

Brace Yourself: The Worst Isn’t Over For US Stocks

One would have thought the market makers read my last post on August 18th for Trader planet “using price and time to predict market reversals” There was an open gap at 2102 that I said would most likely get filled before the meaningful “mini crash” started. Which I have warning about throughout August. After a big that day, the SPX made a massive reversal-started a short squeeze and closed...

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US Stocks Drop Overnight On China Rumors

US Stocks Drop Overnight On China Rumors

These are interesting times in the markets. In the course of two weeks the S&P500, the large cap index for US equities, has had both the biggest one-day drop and the biggest one-day rally since 2011. In a market where, until now, the range for the week was typically about 75 points, we have seen declines and rallies that moved that far in a couple of hours. On Friday the SPX closed at...

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Is NetFlix About To Implode?

Is NetFlix About To Implode?

Volume Profile shows the historical price levels at which buyers and sellers transacted business in a particular stock or ETF. In the long-run, the amount of volume at various price levels tends to be significant. In the short run, anything can happen.  In reviewing the long-term volume profile for AAPL recently, I noted the large unfilled gap around $76. The problem for owners of AAPL is...

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Flash Crash 2015: Did You Miss It?

Flash Crash 2015: Did You Miss It?

When markets opened on Monday, August 24, a slew of sell orders were already lined up, causing many computer systems to go haywire. Many brokers were locked out, and with market makers and specialists unwilling to take action, we saw enormous bid/ask spreads, stops being hit at very low levels, and frozen markets. This all occurred at the opening bell, and it was quickly fixed when some...

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The Shemitah Cycle: Is Another Crash Lurking?

The Shemitah Cycle: Is Another Crash Lurking?

Meaning the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, the end of the past several Shemitahs have brought immense financial hardships to the world. The 1987 crash on Wall St. happened during Shemitah. The bond market was massacred in 1994. The 9/11 terror attacks happened in 2001 and the global economic crisis occurred in 2008. The Shemitah Year is the seventh year of the...

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Is Apple Poised For A Big Plunge?

Is Apple Poised For A Big Plunge?

On 8/7 and again on 8/16 I noted that Apple shares had risk of a sudden drop to $100, where an unfilled gap awaited. Earlier this week AAPL closed that gap and then some. Because AAPL is the leadership name among tech stocks, the 20-point rally in AAPL over the last 4 days has been a key driver of the rebound in the rest of the market.   That said, a large unfilled gap around $76 is the...

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