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Showing Posts 1 - 15 out of 16 found.

DISH Option Traders Position For Near-Term Upside

DISH Option Traders Position For Near-Term Upside

On May 11, DISH Network reported first quarter EPS of $0.76 vs. the $0.40 Wall Street consensus estimate on revenue of $3.7 billion vs. the $3.73 billion estimate (+2.8% year over year). Average revenue per user (Pay TV) in the first quarter rose 4.4% to $86.01, but they lost 134,000 subscribers. DISH trades at a P/E ratio of 34.92x (2015 estimates), price to sales ratio of 2.14x, and a...

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Will Investors Buy What Shopify ($SHOP) is Selling?

Will Investors Buy What Shopify ($SHOP) is Selling?

On May 20, cloud software developer Shopify (SHOP) will price its 7.7 million share IPO and open for trading the next morning. With the expected price range being bumped up to $14-$16 from $12-$14, early indications are that demand will be quite healthy for this deal. The lead underwriters on the deal are solid, with Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, and RBC Capital Markets involved. This,...

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$ADSK: Earnings Play

$ADSK: Earnings Play

Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK, $58.40), the multinational software company perhaps best known for the manufacture of AutoCAD design software, is scheduled to report earnings today following the closing bell. The stock has been a choppy one for investors in 2015 - having opened the year at $60.83 shares fell to $54.01 then rallied all the way to $65 before declining to current levels. Shares are...

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$DKS: Dick's Sproting Goods Short Strangle Swap

$DKS: Dick's Sproting Goods Short Strangle Swap

A short strangle swap is something that works great in the theoretical world, but has a lot of obstacles associated with them.  First, what is a short strangle swap?  Think of it as selling a put calendar and a call calendar at the same time.  A long gamma, short vega set up.  For this to work, we need to have implied volatility come in precipitously and almost more importantly, we need to...

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Lindsay Forecast for the End of the Bull Market Part II

Lindsay Forecast for the End of the Bull Market Part II

Similar to forecasting highs, the first step in forecasting a low is in applying Lindsay’s 12y interval. The 12y interval stretches 12y, 2m–12y, 8m from an important high. The next 12y interval is counted from the high in 2004 and points to a low in Apr-Oct 2016. A decline which begins in the first half of this year will have time to fit Lindsay’s rule of thumb which calls for 1yr down...

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Novatel: Option Traders Position For A Rebound

Novatel: Option Traders Position For A Rebound

On May 5th, Novatel the $242M wireless solutions company reported that Q1 revenues rose 10.8% to $53.5M (mobile computing accounting for 83.4% of sales). They reported a small quarterly loss (in-line with Wall Street estimates), but are still projected to have a full year profit and build on that into 2016. One major positive was the 380 basis point improvement in non-GAAP gross margins to...

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Lindsay: Forecasting: The End of the Bull Market

Lindsay: Forecasting: The End of the Bull Market

The first step in forecasting an important high is accomplished using Lindsay’s 15yr interval. It isolates an eleven month period in which the high is found. Lindsay wrote that the interval (15yr-15yr, 11m) can be counted from any “important” low leaving the identification of the low somewhat ambiguous. In my own attempt to derive a more structured approach to identifying “important” lows I...

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S&P 500 - Key Levels to Watch

S&P 500 - Key Levels to Watch

Equities have retreated from the April highs in the last two weeks, dropping 1.33% so far this week. The latest pullback brought the S&P 500 back down for the eighth test of the 100-day simple moving average since December. On Wednesday, the major U.S. equity index briefly went below the key moving average, but was able to rally 12 points off of the lows by the end of the session. This...

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Facebook Calendar Spread

Facebook Calendar Spread

As an options trader, all we are trying to do is maximize the reward for the risk we take.  I don’t have a crystal ball.  I do have tools at my disposal in the form of technical and fundamental analysis.  Let’s take a look in Facebook (FB).  Facebook has been a stock that has been hard to buy.  What do I mean by that?  Sure it’s easy to say “I want to buy FB” turn around, hit the green...

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Lindsay Right Shoulders

Lindsay Right Shoulders

Long-time readers will remember Lindsay’s admonition that following extended basic advances (929-968 days) a right shoulder is to be expected. Normally, a right shoulder is a significant high but lower than the high of the bull market. However, Lindsay allowed for the possibility of a right shoulder appearing at a higher level than the high of the basic advance.  This happened in 1966 and...

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Altera: Is A Buyout Still In The Works?

Altera: Is A Buyout Still In The Works?

Altera rallied to multi-year highs last month on speculation of Intel looking at a potential takeover offer for the smaller semiconductor company. Talks appeared to stall just a few weeks ago according to CNBC's David Faber, but the most interesting part of this is that Intel reportedly was willing to pay $50+ per share to acquire them. Unusual Options Activity On top of this, post initial...

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Ceiling and Floor - NQ Volume Profile

Ceiling and Floor - NQ Volume Profile

The target for Tuesday was the unfilled gap and the lower boundary of the Upper Value Area, then at 4482. (The Upper Value Area is colored light green on the chart.)   While this was an obvious target, the market nevertheless obliged with a vengeance, testing the Weekly Pivot at 4472. The key resistance level now is the High Volume Node at 4522. Notably, the NQ was not able to close above it...

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BBY-Options Strategy

BBY-Options Strategy

I like holding the cards, or at least stacking the odds in my favor.  Let me show you what I mean.  I had a major technical long trigger Tuesday morning in Best Buy (BBY).  Here’s the chart: Not to get too “technical” here, but we have two major indicators that signaled the long. First is what I call an inside bar entry and second was how it put in lows at or near the 200 Day Moving Average...

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TWTR Trending Among Investors

TWTR Trending Among Investors

Twitter (NYSE: TWTR, $52.36) is scheduled to report earnings today after the close, it’s fifth such report since becoming a publicly traded company  Analysts are projecting $0.04 EPS on revenues of $456.82 million, with strong year over year growth in contrast to the report from on year prior (-$0.03 EPS on $250.49 M in revenue).  TWTR stock has been trending with investors in 2015, having...

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Expect a Gap Fill in the NQ

Expect a Gap Fill in the NQ

Yesterday I noted that “Mondays belong to the bears” and forecast a morning sell off starting during the first 90 minutes that would head toward the unfilled gap around 4489, with eventual continuation to the lower boundary of the Upper Value Area, now at 4482. The Upper Value Area is colored light green on the chart and has this yawning gap. While I do expect this gap to be filled sooner...

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