Sign inRecent Commentaries tagged (trend-following)
Think About It
A trend following fund friend sent this along this morning… Investment A example: Average annual return: 9% Standard deviation of return: 6% Worst case drawdown of approximately: 12% Investment B example: Average annual return: 30% Standard deviation of return: 20% Worst case drawdown of...
Here Trend, Trend, Trend
A question in last night: “What method is used to identify a trend?” No one can identify a trend until it is over as a trend as a beginning and an end. What you can know is where you will enter and exit before you ever enter. Two links that may offer more insight: 1....
Questions of the Day
Here are some questions received in the last 48 hours: Q: Do you think the stock market rally will continue? A: Markets always go up, down or sideways. I can’t predict the timing of either option, but neither can anyone else. Q: Who is your favorite Market Wizard in your DVD collection? A: They...
Turtle Trading Market Timing System Signals for March 17, 2010
The U.S. Dollar has been in an uptrend. Today, March 16, 2010 the UUP, Powershares Dollar Index has a Sell Signal as it traded below the lowest low of the last 20 days. Our research has shown that Turtle Trading on the UUP, Powershares has not been the best trading plan to use for the UUP. ...
System Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for March 16, 2010
The Wall Street Journal and other fundamental and technical analysis commentary have been talking about the problems in China. Over the past 13 weeks, China FXI ETF is now 13%. Today, for the second time in the past month, it closed below its 200 day moving average. This will signal a Sell...
System Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for March 15, 2010
The media is full of stories about the market breaking out to new highs. The media and technical analysis websites are full of stories about Double Tops. In fact, some Indexes are now exhibiting Triple Tops. What is an investor to do? The answer is simple, stay with a systematic trading...
Turtle Trading Market Timing System Signals for March 12, 2010
For Turtle Traders, all of our 53 Indexes tracked in our nightly Trading Signals Service are on Buy or Stay Long. The PPH, Pharmaceutical Holds was the last Index to move to a Buy tomorrow. This means that the entire Index list tracked hit a high of the last 20 days sometime in the past and...
The Trending Market of March 2009 to March 2010
The use of Trend Following techniques has its supporters as well as its critics. I feel that the best stocks, Indexes, or futures contracts to use Trend Trading techniques are volatile markets that are sensitive to change. The other time that Trend Following works well is after crashes in...
Systematic Trading Diversification Done Right
Jason Russell and Nicholas Markos of Acorn Global Investments Inc. offer good insights into systematic trend following trading (PDF).
System Trading Plan: Current 50 Day Moving Average Signals for March 10, 2010
What is your definition of Trend? Is it the 50 day moving average? Is it the 200 Day moving average? Is it something else? System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 50 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 50 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a...
Nicholas Darvas: Trend Trader
From a Time Magazine article in 1959: Darvas places his buy orders for levels that he considers breakout points on the upside. At the same time, he places a stop-loss sell order just below his buy order, so that if the stock does not move straight up after he buys, he will be sold out and [...]
Pablo Picasso on What Is Important
Pablo Picasso once said: “Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.” I saw that today for the first time. Made me pause because I agree 100%! Let’s face it, it used to be more about having the right strategy and then hopefully making money. Today? Trading and investing has become a...
System Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for March 8, 2010
What a difference a week or two can make. There was lots of bearishness by many over the past couple of weeks that the market had run out of steam. I don’t know what “run out of steam” means, since I am a system trader. As of Friday March 5th, 2010 every Index below is above its 200 day...
Turtle Trading Market Timing System Signals for March 5, 2010
One of the most popular Market Timing Trading Systems is known as the Turtle Trading System made popular by Richard Dennis and Richard Donchian. It is an effective Breakout method used by many traders. It works best with trending assets and indexes. It is used in futures trading, stock...
Trends Abound
A friend, and fund manager Jason Russell writes: “Trends are everywhere - weather, sports, fashion, food, entertainment, health, science and politics. Some trends are long, some are short. They come and they go as they always have and always will. Life and business both thrive on identifying,...
